** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 16.8N 134.8E POOR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 18.8N 132.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 121200UTC 19.8N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 131200UTC 20.0N 127.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 16.8N 134.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 18.8N 132.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 19.8N 130.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 20.0N 127.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 101200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN ANALYSIS POSITION 101200UTC 16.8N 134.8E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 111200UTC 18.5N 131.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 121200UTC 19.8N 130.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 131200UTC 21.2N 127.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SHANSHAN 0613 (0613) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 16.7N 134.9E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.3N 133.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 19.8N 130.6E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 20.0N 127.9E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/ RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 134.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 134.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.5N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.7N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.6N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.6N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 23.0N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.2N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 134.3E. TROPICAL STORM 14W (SHANSHAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 101444 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER BERMUDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.7 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT21 KNHC 101445 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 65.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT.......225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 225SE 175SW 475NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 65.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.7N 65.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...250NE 150SE 90SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.4N 63.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...300NE 200SE 100SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.1N 61.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...240NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 48.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 65.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 101446 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EYEWALL THAT WAS PARTIALLY OPEN ON THE NORTH SIDE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT INCREASED FROM OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND FLORENCE WILL BE TRAVERSING SSTS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BE A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR BERMUDA. AFTERWARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER... FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ONCE IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN IS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS FLORENCE IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM. AT 5 DAYS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD REQUIRING SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 28.7N 65.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 30.3N 66.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 32.7N 65.5W 95 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 35.4N 63.8W 90 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 38.1N 61.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/1200Z 48.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101508 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL COMIENZAN A SENTIRSE SOBRE BERMUDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.9 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...415 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NPRTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN CERCA DE BERMUDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HAN COMENZADO A AFECTAR BERMUDA. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 46 MPH EN LA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA COMMISSIONER'S POINT EN BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FLORENCE ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE A CATEGORIA DOS A MEDIDA QUE PASE POR BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNAS 45 MILLAS...75 KM...DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ERA DE 976 MB...28.82 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PIES PULGADS SOBRE BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 10 PULGADAS. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA Y LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS CONDICIONES ESTAN OMENZANDO A AFECTAR AREAS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBE BERMUDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...28.7 NORTE...65.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...976 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101509 CCA *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL COMIENZAN A SENTIRSE SOBRE BERMUDA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.9 OESTE O COMO A 255 MILLAS...415 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN CERCA DE BERMUDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HAN COMENZADO A AFECTAR BERMUDA. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 46 MPH EN LA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA COMMISSIONER'S POINT EN BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FLORENCE ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE A CATEGORIA DOS A MEDIDA QUE PASE POR BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNAS 45 MILLAS...75 KM...DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ERA DE 976 MB...28.82 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PIES PULGADAS SOBRE BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 10 PULGADAS. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA Y LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS CONDICIONES ESTAN COMENZANDO A AFECTAR AREAS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...28.7 NORTE...65.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...976 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BROWN/PASCH ** WTPH20 RPMM 101200 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1200 10 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 ONE NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST 121200 TWO ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST 131200 TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 17.4N 134.8E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 19.1N 132.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 121200UTC 19.8N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 131200UTC 20.0N 127.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 101551 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN (14W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST MON SEP 11 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 745 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 775 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 600 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AWAY FROM YAP AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTNT80 EGRR 101719 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2006 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 66.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2006 28.3N 66.0W STRONG 00UTC 11.09.2006 30.7N 66.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2006 33.5N 66.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 35.3N 64.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2006 37.0N 61.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 42.1N 57.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 43.5N 55.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 45.1N 51.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 9.9N 118.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2006 10.4N 118.5W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2006 10.4N 118.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 12.5N 118.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 13.0N 119.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 13.1N 121.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 13.3N 122.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 122.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2006 15.6N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2006 17.2N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.3N 18.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2006 13.3N 18.0W MODERATE 00UTC 13.09.2006 13.3N 20.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 13.3N 23.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 13.8N 26.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 14.7N 30.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.9N 33.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 17.1N 36.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 18.6N 38.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2006 19.8N 41.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101719 ** WTNT31 KNHC 101746 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 200 PM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TOWARD BERMUDA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 57 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...29.2 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101753 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 28A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 200 PM AST DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE SE FORTALECE Y CONTINUA HACIA BERMUDA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.1 OESTE O COMO A 225 MILLAS...365 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA EL LUNES. EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN CERCA DE BERMUDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HAN COMENZADO A AFECTAR BERMUDA. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 57 MPH EN LA ESTACION METEOROLOGICA COMMISSIONER'S POINT EN BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FLORENCE ES HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE A CATEGORIA DOS A MEDIDA QUE PASE POR BERMUDA. FLORENCE SIGUE SIENDO UN CICLON TROPICAL GRANDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNAS 45 MILLAS...75 KM...DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA REPOTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 976 MB...28.82 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES JUNTO CON OLAS ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PIES PULGADAS SOBRE BERMUDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS POSIBLES DE 10 PULGADAS. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA Y LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS CONDICIONES ESTAN COMENZANDO A AFECTAR AREAS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS. PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM AST...29.2 NORTE...66.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...976 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BROWN/PASCH