** WTNT31 KNHC 100633 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 200 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 CORRECTED TO ADD RAINFALL STATEMENT ...FLORENCE REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FLORENCE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...27.1 N...65.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN ** WTIN20 DEMS 100635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER, SOUTH BAY,SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA ,PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL BAY,ANDAMAN SEA AND COMARIN AREA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 16.1N 135.5E POOR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 17.8N 133.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.1N 135.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 100600 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0600 10 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SIX EAST 120600 ONE NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN EAST 130600 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPN31 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 134.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 134.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.1N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.4N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.6N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.7N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.2N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 134.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 100858 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 LATEST SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLORENCE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SURVEYED FLORENCE AND MEASURED AN 84 KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0536Z. THIS WIND EQUATES TO APPROXIMATELY 67 KT AT THE SURFACE. AT THAT TIME THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 981 MB. ON THE NEXT PASS...THE EYE SONDE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 978 MB WITH 18 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 976 MB. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN ABOUT 17 MB. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. BY 72 HOURS... FLORENCE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH A SHORT-WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FLORENCE IS NOW NEARING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS... UKMET...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 27.7N 65.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 29.0N 65.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 66.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 33.5N 65.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 36.4N 63.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 42.5N 56.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/0600Z 47.0N 49.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0600Z 50.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN ** WTNT21 KNHC 100858 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006 AT 500 AM...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 65.7W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 34 KT.......225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 225SE 150SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 65.7W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N 65.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 200SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.4N 63.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 42.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...240NE 360SE 360SW 240NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 47.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 50.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT31 KNHC 100859 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... AT 500 AM...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 520 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. BASED ON A REPORT FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...27.7 N...65.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100923 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 755 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN 570 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM YAP AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS AT 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A REDUCED FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...17.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM MONDAY GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO/GIBBS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 16.4N 135.3E POOR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 18.4N 132.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT31 KNHC 101138 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 800 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BERMUDA DETERIORATING SOON... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101151 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 27A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 800 AM AST DOMINGO 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTAN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE ESTAR POR COMPLETARSE. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.9 OESTE O COMO A 305 MILLAS...495 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. EL CENTRO DE FLORENCE SE ESPERA QUE PASE BIEN CERCA DE BERMUDA EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. SIN EMBARGO...VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDEN ALCANZAR LA ISLA DE BERMUDA ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOTICA QUE GANE INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE SE INTENSIFIQUE A UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS A MEDIDA QUE PASA BERMUDA. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA EXTENSO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNAS 45 MILLAS...75 KM...DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ERA DE 976 MB...28.82 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A BERMUDA...AL IGUAL QUE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...Y LA ESPANOLA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR AREAS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS EN LA NOCHE DE HOY. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBE BERMUDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM AST...28.0 NORTE...65.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...976 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BLAKE/KNABB