** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100002 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 800 PM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8M AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE SE ESTIMABA POR IMAGES DEL SATELITE CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.6 OESTE O COMO A 430 MILLAS...690 KM...AL SUR DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS HORAS DE LA NOCHE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE MANTIENEN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA FORTALECIMIENTO Y FLORENCE PODRIAN SER HURACAN PARA MANANA.- FLORENCE IS UN SISTEMA EXTENSO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ERA DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A BERMUDA...AL IGUAL QUE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...Y LA ESPANOLA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR AREAS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS EN LA NOCHE DE HOY. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBE BERMUDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM AST...26.1 NORTE...64.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 15.0N 136.2E POOR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 16.7N 133.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.0N 136.2E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091221Z SEP 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 135.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 135.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.3N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.7N 133.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.0N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.2N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.5N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 135.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 091221Z SEP 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091230) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 100244 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMED OVER THE APPARENT CENTER... AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN EYE. HOWEVER... RECENTLY THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2238 UTC DID NOT SHOW ANY WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50 TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT. FLORENCE HAS FOOLED US BEFORE AND IT IS BEST TO WAIT FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST THE SAME AS BEFORE... 330/11... ALTHOUGH A SHORT-TERM MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER. TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A PATH NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER... SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FLORENCE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PULLED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... AS IT IS SOMEWHAT CAPTURED BY THE UPPER-TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO... THEN SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALL SIGNS POINT TO INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE...AND IN FACT THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES NEARLY A 50% CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT INDICATED ALMOST THE SAME PROBABILITIES 24 HOURS AGO. FLORENCE HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN AND HAS REFUSED... SO FAR... TO INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ALMOST ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT WITH SOME REDUCTION BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 64.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 27.9N 65.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 29.8N 65.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.8N 65.4W 85 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.4N 64.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT21 KNHC 100244 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 64.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......225NE 200SE 90SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..475NE 225SE 150SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 64.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N 65.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.8N 65.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 35SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 225SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.8N 65.4W...NEAR BERMUDA MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.4N 64.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT31 KNHC 100247 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...FLORENCE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...26.6 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT31 KNHC 100252 CCA *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR REPEAT SECTION MOTION... ...FLORENCE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...26.6 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100304 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 800 PM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE GIRA HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE SIN HABER CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD... ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 AM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE SE ESTIMABA POR IMAGES DEL SATELITE CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.9 OESTE O COMO A 395 MILLAS...635 KM...AL SUR DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LA NOCHE CON UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE MANTIENEN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO Y FLORENCE PODRIAN SER HURACAN PARA MANANA. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA EN ALGUNAS HORAS. FLORENCE CONTINUA SIENDO UN SISTEMA EXTENSO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM DEL CENTRO SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A BERMUDA...AL IGUAL QUE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...Y LA ESPANOLA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR AREAS DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS EN LA NOCHE DE HOY. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...26.6 NORTE...64.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100334 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 655 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM 695 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN 495 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM YAP AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS AT 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A REDUCED FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...16.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 15.9N 135.6E POOR MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 17.3N 133.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 100516 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 64.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2006 26.1N 64.5W STRONG 12UTC 10.09.2006 28.7N 66.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 31.0N 65.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2006 32.4N 65.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 35.4N 62.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 37.1N 59.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 40.6N 55.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 44.9N 52.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.5N 117.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2006 10.5N 117.5W WEAK 00UTC 12.09.2006 11.2N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 11.4N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 13.2N 118.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 14.1N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 14.2N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2006 14.6N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.2N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 16.1N 123.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 16.3N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.7N 18.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2006 13.7N 18.3W MODERATE 12UTC 13.09.2006 13.8N 20.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 14.4N 23.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2006 15.6N 25.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 17.1N 28.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 18.6N 30.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2006 20.1N 32.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100516 ** WTNT31 KNHC 100554 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 200 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006 ...FLORENCE REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FLORENCE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...27.1 N...65.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN