** WTNT31 KNHC 092032 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 465 MILES...745 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGHTLY TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH STEADY STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...25.6 N...64.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT21 KNHC 092033 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 64.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 90SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 225SE 100SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 64.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.8N 65.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.7N 65.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 35SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 225SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.8N 65.5W...APPROACHING BERMUDA MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W...NORTH OF BERMUDA MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 49.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 64.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA41 TJSJ 092044 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 200 PM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE SE DEBILITA UN POCO PERO SE ESPERA QUE VUELVA A FORTALECER NUEVAMENTE EL DOMNGO A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERQUE A BERMUDA... ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO EN LA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.3 OESTE O COMO A 745 KILOMETRO...AL SUR DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN BAJA LEVEMENTE HASTA CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD ESTA NOCHE...PERO SE ESPERA QUE EL DOMINGO SE FORTALEZCA FIRMEMENTE. FLORENCE IS UN SISTEMA EXTENSO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A BERMUDA...AL IGUAL QUE A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...Y LA ESPANOLA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE FLORENCE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBE BERMUDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...25.6 NORTE...64.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTNT41 KNHC 092045 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FLORENCE IS SEVERELY ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED EVEN THOUGH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING PHASE THIS MORNING...A SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY AND THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPING EYEWALL HAD DETERIORATED. SOME MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER...AND THIS HINDERING FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 18-24 HOURS WHEN FLORENCE SHOULD BE TURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS... THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 25.6N 64.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 26.8N 65.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 28.7N 65.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 30.8N 65.5W 85 KT...APPROACHING BERMUDA 48HR VT 11/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W 90 KT...NORTH OF BERMUDA 72HR VT 12/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1800Z 49.0N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT31 KNHC 092352 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 800 PM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW. FLORENCE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...26.1 N...64.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB