** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 091200 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 23A NUMERO 23 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 800 AM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UNA VIGILANCIA SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.0 OESTE O COMO A 550 MILLAS...885 KM...SUR-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION Y FLORENCE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO PROVEERA UN MEJOR ESTIMADO DE LA INTENSIDAD MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA GRANDE Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.33 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA... INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA...Y BERMUDA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM AST...24.4 NORTE...63.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES RHOME/STEWART ** WTPN21 PGTW 091230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091221Z SEP 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 137.6E TO 18.0N 134.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 091130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 138.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR , APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 090914Z QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANAYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TOP OF THE DISTURBANCE, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101230Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 091433 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11...BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND 09/1007Z SSMI AND 09/1015Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES. THE BASIC FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...77 KT...AND 90 KT FROM SAB...TAFB... AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TILTED 12-18 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT THERE WAS NO EYE FEATURE PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY NUDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AROUND 18Z WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT FLORENCE IS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 24.7N 63.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 27.7N 65.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 29.7N 65.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 31.9N 65.3W 90 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 72HR VT 12/1200Z 37.6N 61.6W 85 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 54.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT21 KNHC 091434 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006 AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 63.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 90SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 225SE 100SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 63.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.7N 65.7W...NEAR BERMUDA MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 35SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 225SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.7N 65.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.9N 65.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.6N 61.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N 54.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 63.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT31 KNHC 091434 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES...850 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY OF FLORENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...24.7 N...63.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT21 KNHC 091449 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006 CORRECTED NEAR BERMUDA TO 48 HOUR POSITION AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 63.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 90SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 225SE 100SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 63.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.7N 65.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 35SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 225SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.7N 65.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.9N 65.3W...NEAR BERMUDA MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.6N 61.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N 54.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 63.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA41 TJSJ 091540 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA MOSTRANDO SENALES DE MEJOR ORGANIZACION... ...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA BERMUDA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE BERMUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.7 OESTE O COMO A 530 MILLAS...850 KM...SUR DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y FLORENCE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO PROVEERA UN MEJOR ESTIMADO DE LA INTENSIDAD MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA GRANDE Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA...Y BERMUDA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...24.7 NORTE...63.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADORES RHOME/STEWART ** WTCA41 TJSJ 091540 RRA *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA MOSTRANDO SENALES DE MEJOR ORGANIZACION... ...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA BERMUDA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE BERMUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.7 OESTE O COMO A 530 MILLAS...850 KM...SUR DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y FLORENCE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO PROVEERA UN MEJOR ESTIMADO DE LA INTENSIDAD MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA GRANDE Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA...Y BERMUDA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...24.7 NORTE...63.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTNT80 EGRR 091711 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 63.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2006 24.5N 63.7W MODERATE 00UTC 10.09.2006 26.3N 64.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2006 28.3N 65.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 30.4N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2006 32.1N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 34.4N 63.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.09.2006 37.0N 62.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 39.1N 58.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2006 43.2N 57.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 44.8N 55.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 45.6N 52.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2006 45.8N 46.4W EXTRA TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.8N 115.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2006 11.6N 115.4W WEAK 00UTC 12.09.2006 12.0N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 12.0N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 13.2N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 14.3N 118.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2006 15.2N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 15.7N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 16.3N 120.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2006 16.5N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091711 ** WTNT31 KNHC 091748 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 200 PM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...800 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...25.1 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME ** WTCA41 TJSJ 091754 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 24A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 200 PM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTAN EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.0 OESTE O COMO A 500 MILLAS...800 KM...SUR DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y FLORENCE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA ACTUALMENTE INVESTIGANDO EL SISTEMA. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA GRANDE Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 8 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE BERMUDA A MEDIDA QUE FLORENCE PASE CERCA DE LA ISLA. ADEMAS...GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA...INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA...Y BERMUDA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM AST...25.1 NORTE...64.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART/RHOME