** WTNT31 KNHC 090831 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES...935 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...24.1 N...62.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT21 KNHC 090832 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 62.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......300NE 200SE 60SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 225SE 100SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 62.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 62.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.1N 64.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 200SE 80SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.7N 65.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 35SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.6N 65.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.6N 65.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 43.0N 56.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 62.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090847 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST SABADO 9 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE-NOROESTE Y TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UNA VIGILANCIA SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.8 OESTE O COMO A 580 MILLAS...935 KM...SUR-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION Y FLORENCE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA GRANDE Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 993 MB...29.33 PULGADAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS EN EL OCEANO Y PELIGROSAS CONDICIONES DE RESACA... INCLUYENDO FUERTES CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...YA ESTAN AFECTANDO A LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...PUERTO RICO...LA ESPANOLA...Y BERMUDA. ESTAS CONDICIONES COMENZARAN A AFECTAR A LAS ISLAS TURKS...Y CAICOS...LAS BAHAMAS...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. VER LOS COMUNICADOS DE LAS OFICINAS METEOROLOGICAS LOCALES PARA DETALLES SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES COSTERAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...24.1 NORTE...62.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 11 AM. $$ PRONOSTICADORES BEVEN ** WTNT41 KNHC 090911 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF FLORENCE ABOUT 04Z...WITH A SECOND FIX ABOUT 0630Z. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MINIMUM PRESSURES OF 998 AND 993 MB ON THE TWO FIXES... WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT AND RECENT AMSR-E DATA SHOW THAT WHILE THE CONVECTION IS STRONG...IT IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND A REVIEW OF EARLIER SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT FLORENCE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HR OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FLORENCE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM NEAR 21N71W AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD TURN FLORENCE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR...WITH THE STORM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEREAFTER. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE RECURVATURE...WITH LBAR CALLING FOR THE FARTHEST WEST RECURVATURE AT 68W. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NOGAPS...GFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF BRING THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND NOW CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN 48-72 HR. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 KT. FLORENCE HAS ABOUT A 48-60 HR WINDOW IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONG SHEAR IN THE WESTERLIES. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BOTH FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100-105 KT IN ABOUT 60 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 87 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR. AFTER FLORENCE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES... INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 120 HR. HOWEVER... FLORENCE SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE AND VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH THE TRANSITION PROCESS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 24.1N 62.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 25.1N 64.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 26.7N 65.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 28.6N 65.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 30.6N 65.8W 90 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 63.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 43.0N 56.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/0600Z 49.0N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT31 KNHC 091150 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 800 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...FLORENCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...24.4 N...63.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART