** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090011 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 21A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 8 PM AST VIERNES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA SIENDO UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL GRANDE Y CONTINUA HACIA EL NOROESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UNA VIGILANCIA SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.9 OESTE O COMO A 615 MILLAS...990 KM...SUR-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA GRANDE Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 375 MILLAS...600 KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM AST...24.1 NORTE...60.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/LANDSEA ** WTPN21 PGTW 090030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 090021ZSEP2006// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 080200)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 166.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 164.9E, APPROX- IMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATION AND BREAKDOWN OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND MOVING INTO UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION FROM A BAROTROPIC SYSTEM TO A MORE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. AN 082125Z SSMI PASS REVEALS THAT CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT DRY AIR IS BEGIN- NING TO PENETRATE THE CORE OF LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI- MATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON DECREASED ORGANIZATION OF LLCC, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPER- ATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 090249 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 08 2006 ...FLORENCE INTENSIFYING... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...930 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FLORENCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...24.5 N...61.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA ** WTNT21 KNHC 090250 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 61.4W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......300NE 200SE 60SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 100SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 61.4W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 60.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 200SE 80SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 100SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 65.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.7N 65.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 42.5N 57.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 48.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA ** WTNT41 KNHC 090301 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 DURING THE EVENING...INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE HAS CONSOLIDATED AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST APPEARS TO BE FORMING. CORRESPONDINGLY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000Z SUGGEST 55 KT...WHILE 2119Z AMSU ANALYSES FROM CIRA AND CIMMS SUGGESTED A WEAKER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FLORENCE IN A FEW HOURS AND PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF BOTH ITS INTENSITY AND POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/13...THOUGH THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING THE EXACT CENTER WITH INFRARED IMAGERY. FLORENCE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND IT SHOULD REACH ITS WESTERNMOST POINT IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT RECURVES INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS AND NONE TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST OF 66W...SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS LITTLE DIRECT THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES OUTSIDE OF LARGE SWELLS AND SURF. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NOGAPS...GFDL AND ECMWF TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...THE GFS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT...AND THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER. THE UKMET SOLUTION MAY BE ERRONEOUS GIVEN THAT THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION THAT THE UKMET CARRIES FLORENCE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE UKMET. GIVEN THE INNER-CORE DEVELOPMENT...WARM WATERS...LOW SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FLORENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...COOLER WATERS...HIGHER SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD START THE WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE MAY BECOME A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 24.5N 61.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 65.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 30.7N 65.4W 90 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 42.5N 57.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 14/0000Z 48.0N 48.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA ** WTNT80 EGRR 090450 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 61.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.09.2006 24.5N 61.0W STRONG 12UTC 09.09.2006 26.1N 63.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2006 28.2N 64.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2006 30.6N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 33.2N 64.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2006 36.4N 62.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 38.8N 59.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.3N 116.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2006 10.3N 116.6W WEAK 00UTC 12.09.2006 10.8N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 12.5N 117.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 13.0N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2006 13.4N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2006 14.2N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2006 15.5N 122.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2006 15.0N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090450 ** WTNT31 KNHC 090539 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 200 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE SOMEWHAT FARTHER SOUTH... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS RE-LOCATED BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...23.8 N...62.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTIN20 DEMS 090600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 28.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.)