** WTNT21 KNHC 082030 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.1W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......325NE 250SE 0SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 100SW 325NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.1W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 61.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 50SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 42.0N 57.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 47.1N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT41 KNHC 082030 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO BUT IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT SINCE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZATION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT FLORENCE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY UNDER LOW SHEAR...WARM SSTS AND THE POTENTIALLY POSITIVE EFFECTS OF A TROUGH INTERACTION. FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING FLORENCE NEAR BERMUDA AND THEN TURNING IT TO THE NORTHEAST. FLORENCE HAS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS COULD REACH BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 23.9N 60.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 24.9N 61.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 63.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 42.0N 57.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1800Z 47.1N 48.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT31 KNHC 082030 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST FRI SEP 08 2006 ...FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...BUT IT COULD TONIGHT... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1040 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLORENCE IS LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 375 MILES...600 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.9 N...60.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA41 TJSJ 082038 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 5 PM AST VIERNES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE AUN NO SE HA INTENSIFICADO...PERO PODRIA HACERLO ESTA NOCHE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA BERMUDA. UNA VIGILANCIA SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES... FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.1 OESTE O COMO A 645 MILLAS...1040 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. FLORENCE ES UN SISTEMA GRANDE Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 375 MILLAS...600 KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...23.9 NORTE...60.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT31 KNHC 082355 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 800 PM AST FRI SEP 08 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD AS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES...990 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLORENCE IS LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 375 MILES...600 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...24.1 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA