** WTSR20 WSSS 080600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 081439 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 08 2006 ...FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE READY TO STRENGTHEN... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 730 MILES...1175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N...59.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT41 KNHC 081440 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHAPELESS WITH VERY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 35 KNOTS. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT I WILL HOLD IT AT 45 KNOTS FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY AND BASED ON SEVERAL..BUT LESS RELIABLE HI-RES QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ON THE EDGE OF THE SWATH. FLORENCE HAS REFUSED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IN THE TROPICS...LIKE MOST THE SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS YEAR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO DO SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FLORENCE SEEMS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT THERE MUST BE ONE GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF THE STORM. THE AVERAGE MOTION OF THE LARGE GYRE IS ESTIMATED AT 300/15. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND FLORENCE CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS SHOW THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN BUT THEY VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY. NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE PREVAILED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 23.0N 59.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 23.8N 60.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 65.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT21 KNHC 081440 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006 THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 59.1W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 250SE 100SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 59.1W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 58.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 60.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...325NE 250SE 50SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 59.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA41 TJSJ 081453 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST VIERNES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE LISTA PARA FORTALECERSE... EL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA PROBABLEMENTE EMITA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES... FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.1 OESTE O COMO A 420 MILLAS...675 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE Y COMO A 730 MILLAS...1175 KM... AL SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 405 MILLAS...650 KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...23.0 NORTE...59.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT80 EGRR 081650 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 58.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2006 23.0N 58.4W MODERATE 00UTC 09.09.2006 24.1N 60.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2006 25.7N 62.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2006 27.6N 64.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2006 30.6N 64.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 33.5N 64.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2006 37.8N 61.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 40.4N 55.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081650