** WTIN20 DEMS 080710 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT21 KNHC 080843 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006 THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.6W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.6W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 59.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...325NE 250SE 50SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 61.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.8N 63.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.4N 64.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 65.0W...NEAR BERMUDA MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 45.0N 53.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 57.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT31 KNHC 080847 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST FRI SEP 08 2006 ...FLORENCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...720 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 830 MILES...1340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.1 N...57.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT41 KNHC 080851 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 AS DEPICTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...FLORENCE HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ORGANIZATION. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE CLOUD STRUCTURE WILL SOON COMMENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLORENCE SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A RATHER STRONG RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THESE FEATURES HAVE HELPED INCREASE THE FORWARD MOTION AND IT IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/14. A VERY DEEP TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZATION OF SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...THE TROUGH MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED. WITH THAT SAID...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS...GRADUALLY SLOWING FLORENCE AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURNING THE CYCLONE TO NORTH AND APPROACH BERMUDA. ONCE FLORENCE IS NORTH OF THE ISLAND THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE ACCELERATION RATE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STAYS IN LINE WITH THE MOTION REPRESENTED BY THE GFS...NOGAPS... AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WITH FLORENCE STARTING TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 5. ONCE AGAIN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. SINCE FLORENCE IS SUCH A LARGE CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING WILL TAKE LONGER TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENS FLORENCE AFTER RECURVATURE OCCURS. THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 40 KNOTS AFTER 3 DAYS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 22.1N 57.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 23.1N 59.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 24.4N 61.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 25.8N 63.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 27.4N 64.6W 75 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 65.0W 90 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 96HR VT 12/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 13/0600Z 45.0N 53.0W 80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTCA41 TJSJ 080852 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST VIERNES 8 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE MUESTRA POCOS CAMBIOS... EL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA PROBABLEMENTE EMITA VIGILANCIS Y AVISOS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES... FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.6 OESTE O COMO A 445 MILLAS...720 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y COMO A 830 MILLAS...1340 KM... AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AUNQUE FLORENCE NO SE HA INTENSIFICADO ...LAS CONDICIONES PARECEN SER FAVORABLES PARA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 405 MILLAS...650 KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...22.1 NORTE...57.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$