** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 080200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080151Z SEP 06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151Z SEP 06// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 070200)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.0N 166.7E TO 30.4N 163.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 072330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 166.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 168.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 166.5E, APPROX- IMATELY 345 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE. A 072115Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONFLUENCE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTI- MATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 080200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 090200Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 080228 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST THU SEP 07 2006 ...FLORENCE REMAINS LARGE BUT REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...810 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE YESTERDAY... CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.3 N...56.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 080229 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 131.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 131.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 130.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.1N 132.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 133.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.0N 135.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.0N 136.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 131.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA ** WTNT41 KNHC 080229 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH AN ELONGATED SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS NOT VERY TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT..CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER... USING CONTINUITY AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN....HOWEVER...I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WITHIN WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...FLORENCE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK MODELS. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE NEAR BERMUDA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.3N 56.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.7N 60.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 62.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 12/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 13/0000Z 42.0N 58.0W 90 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT21 KNHC 080230 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 56.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 56.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...325NE 250SE 0SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.7N 60.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 42.0N 58.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 080230 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2006 ONE COULD ARGUE THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN UNABLE TO SUSTAIN ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...SO ITS LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY...IF NOT ALREADY...COMING TO AN END. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE BEEN FORMING WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN AS THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN. KRISTY HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 245/9 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER TRADES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ORDER TO INCORPORATE THE RECENT MOTION... WHICH IS SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN 24 HOURS AND COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY DAY 3. ASSUMING KRISTY HAS NO MORE SURPRISES UP ITS SLEEVE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 15.4N 131.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 15.1N 132.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 09/0000Z 15.0N 133.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/0000Z 15.0N 136.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA ** WTCA41 TJSJ 080238 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST JUEVES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE CONTINUA GRANDE PERO REHUSA INTENSIFICARSE... LOS INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE FLORENCE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES... FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.1 OESTE O COMO A 505 MILLAS...810 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y COMO A 930 MILLAS...1495 KM... AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AUNQUE FLORENCE NO SE HA INTENSIFICADO DESDE AYER...LAS CONDICIONES PARECEN SER FAVORABLES PARA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 405 MILLAS...650 KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...21.3 NORTE...56.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPN32 PHNC 080400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 037 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 130.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 131.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.1N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.0N 133.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.0N 136.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080400Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 131.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 7 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1384 NM E OF HILO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 080455 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 55.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2006 21.3N 55.4W WEAK 12UTC 08.09.2006 23.0N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 25.3N 60.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2006 27.2N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2006 29.1N 65.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2006 31.5N 65.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 34.8N 64.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2006 39.6N 61.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 130.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2006 15.6N 130.7W WEAK 12UTC 08.09.2006 15.9N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 15.6N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2006 16.6N 132.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2006 15.6N 132.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2006 17.3N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 16.0N 133.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2006 15.6N 133.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080455