** WTPZ22 KNHC 072029 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 130.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 130.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.8N 131.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 132.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.6N 133.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 072029 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2006 A 1428Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LIMITED AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BARELY SUPPORT A 25 KT TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...KRISTY COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE HOSTILE STABLE AIR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNTIL KRISTY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...WHICH COULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/5...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KRISTY SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS...WHICH PREDICTED THE PAST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SLOWER...ERRATIC...24 HOUR MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.9N 130.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.8N 131.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 08/1800Z 15.7N 132.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/0600Z 15.6N 133.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTNT41 KNHC 072031 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006 FLORENCE REMAINS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE...NOW MORE THAN 900 NMI DIAMETER... NON-CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WIND FIELD WAS EXPANDED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...BASED ON SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. THE OUTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WHEREAS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FOR THE FIRST TIME. SINCE FLORENCE IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE OUTER REGIONS LIKELY WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WIND SPEEDS SINCE THE LATTER ARE DRIVEN MORE BY THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE LARGE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH. NOW THAT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. FLORENCE REMAINS ON TRACK SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON TAKING FLORENCE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... AND BRINGS FLORENCE VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 20.6N 54.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 56.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.8N 59.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.0N 61.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 25.2N 63.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 28.1N 65.7W 90 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 66.0W 95 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 120HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 63.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT21 KNHC 072032 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 54.9W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 54.9W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.5N 56.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.8N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 85NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.0N 61.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 63.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 65.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 66.0W...NEAR BERMUDA MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 38.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 54.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT31 KNHC 072033 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST THU SEP 07 2006 ...FLORENCE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES...900 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1015 MILES...1630 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA41 TJSJ 072040 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST JUEVES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE ORGANIZANDOSE UN POCO MEJOR SOBRE ALTA MAR EN EL OCEANO ATLANTICO... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.9 OESTE O COMO A 560 MILLAS...900 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y COMO A 1015 MILLAS...1630 KM... AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. FLORENCE UN UN CICLON TROPICAL INUSITADAMENTE GRANDE CON VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTENDIENDOSE HACIA AFUERA HASTA 405 MILLAS...650 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. UN BARCO LOCALIZADO COMO A 360 MILLAS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 38 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...20.6 NORTE...54.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPN32 PHNC 072200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 036 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 130.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 130.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.8N 131.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.7N 132.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.6N 133.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.6N 134.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 130.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 9 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1444 NM E OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.//