** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT31 KNHC 071421 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST THU SEP 07 2006 ...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1115 MILES...1795 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.8 N...53.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT41 KNHC 071430 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. UNUSUALLY LARGE...OVER 700 NMI IN DIAMETER...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KT AS FLORENCE IS MOVING OVER 29C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.8N 53.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W 90 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT21 KNHC 071431 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......225NE 250SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 53.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 0SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 60SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 75SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...250NE 225SE 90SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 53.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ22 KNHC 071431 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 130.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 130.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.4N 133.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.4N 134.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 142.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 130.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 071435 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2006 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT KRISTY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEPRESSION STRENGTH...AND COULD POSSIBLY RE-INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS SUGGEST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFS SHALLOW BAM SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT AROUND MID PERIOD AS THE HIGH TEMPORARILY RETROGRADES TO A POSITION NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 3. THEREAFTER....MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND 36-48 HR PERIOD THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 16.4N 130.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 16.4N 131.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.4N 133.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 16.4N 134.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 142.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTCA41 TJSJ 071453 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST JUEVES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO ABIERTO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.4 OESTE O COMO A 645 MILLAS...1035 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y COMO A 1115 MILLAS...1795 KILOMETROS... AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 290 MILLAS...465 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...19.8 NORTE...53.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPN32 PHNC 071600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 129.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 130.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.4N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.4N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.4N 134.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.4N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071600Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 130.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 9 FEET. AT 071200Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1433 NM E OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 071725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 53.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2006 19.7N 53.3W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2006 21.1N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 21.9N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 23.8N 58.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2006 24.9N 61.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2006 26.5N 63.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2006 28.7N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 31.2N 66.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2006 34.0N 66.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 38.0N 63.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 42.0N 59.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 130.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2006 16.6N 130.0W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2006 16.0N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 15.9N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 15.6N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2006 16.3N 134.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2006 15.6N 135.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2006 16.0N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 15.3N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2006 14.9N 137.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2006 14.1N 138.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071725