** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 54N 170E MOVE NE 45KT PRES 976HPA MXWD 055KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST = ** WTKO20 RKSL 070000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21 NAME LOW 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 070000UTC 54.0N 170.0E MOVEMENT NE 45KT PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN21 PGTW 070200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070151Z SEP 06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151Z AUG 06// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060200)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 168.9E TO 25.9N 165.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 062330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 168.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 167.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 168.1E, APPROX- IMATELY 105 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 062128Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK AND INDICATES MODERATE WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080200Z.// ** WTPZ22 KNHC 070234 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 128.7W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 128.7W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.7N 132.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.9N 136.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 17.0N 142.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 070236 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006 KRISTY IS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AS IT MOVES INTO A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OCEAN WATERS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STRONG...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM IN ITS PRESENT STATE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY COULD EVEN RE-STRENGTHEN. GIVEN THE TENACIOUS NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISING TURN OF EVENTS. ALTERNATIVELY...HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO IT WOULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED JUST A TAD...TO 10 OR 11 KT. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER INITIAL FORWARD SPEED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 16.6N 130.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 16.7N 132.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 16.9N 136.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 17.0N 142.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT31 KNHC 070238 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST WED SEP 06 2006 ...FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1160 MILES...1870 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.6 N...52.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT21 KNHC 070238 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.9N 56.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.1N 59.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 62.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 33.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 52.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 070238 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE CENTER OF FLORENCE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE OVER 90 NM APART...AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE FROM A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OR SHIP REPORTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9. NOTWITHSTANDING OUR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LOCATION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS INSIST ON AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW AS MUCH ACCELERATION AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED INDICATED BY THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. DETERMINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF THE AMBIGUITY OF THE CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER OUR BEST ESTIMATE... USING THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN...INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 45 KT. FLORENCE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS AND CONTINUES TO LACK DEFINITE BANDING FEATURES...AS APPARENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION...HOWEVER...SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX AND PERMIT FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER IN THE PERIOD. WE SHOULD NOTE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 19.6N 52.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 56.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 23.1N 59.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 24.3N 62.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 67.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 33.5N 66.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 070256 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST MIERCOLES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE TODAVIA NO SE HA INTENSIFICADO... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 52.5 OESTE O COMO A 700 MILLAS...1125 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y ALREDEDOR DE 1160 MILLAS...1870 KM... AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y FLORENCE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EN ALGUNOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 999 MB...29.50 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...19.6 NORTE...52.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 070400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 128.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 128.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.6N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.7N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.8N 134.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.9N 136.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070400Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 129.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1654 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 070545 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 128.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2006 16.3N 128.4W WEAK 12UTC 07.09.2006 16.5N 130.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 15.8N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 15.6N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 15.3N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2006 15.5N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2006 15.0N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2006 15.1N 137.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 14.8N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2006 14.1N 138.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2006 13.6N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2006 12.6N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 51.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.09.2006 19.6N 51.9W WEAK 12UTC 07.09.2006 20.4N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 22.9N 55.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2006 24.5N 58.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 25.8N 62.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2006 27.1N 64.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2006 28.8N 66.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2006 30.6N 67.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2006 33.2N 66.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.09.2006 35.3N 66.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2006 37.2N 64.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2006 39.6N 62.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2006 42.9N 57.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070545