** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 061200 *** WARNING 061200. WARNING VALID 071200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0612 IOKE (0612) 980 HPA AT 47.6N 161.2E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 41 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 53.1N 173.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 56.1N 172.7W WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 061200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 061200UTC 47.6N 161.2E FAIR MOVE NE 41KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 071200UTC 56.1N 172.7W 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPZ22 KNHC 061436 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 126.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 126.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.9N 131.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 134.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 18.0N 143.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 061437 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A 0208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH DAY 3. THEN...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE UKMET/GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE ONLY REMAINING MODELS THAT DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.0N 126.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.9N 131.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 18.0N 134.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 143.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTNT41 KNHC 061442 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SHIP MSJZ8 REPORTED 34 KT WINDS ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE CENTER...BEYOND THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT...AND I AM PLACING THE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER ONLY A LITTLE BIT NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUD SWIRL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE MOMENT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN. THE INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE LOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BROAD-SCALE DESCENT OVER THE CENTER...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. THE GFDL MODEL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOWS FLORENCE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 18.3N 50.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 52.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 59.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 28.0N 67.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT21 KNHC 061442 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 50.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 50.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 90SE 45SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 45SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT31 KNHC 061444 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST WED SEP 06 2006 ...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...1290 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1295 MILES...2090 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.3 N...50.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTCA41 TJSJ 061501 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM AST MIERCOLES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE PERMANECE SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 1100 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.9 OESTE O COMO A 800 MILLAS...1290 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y ALREDEDOR DE 1295 MILLAS...2090 KM... AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 290 MILLAS...465 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...18.3 NORTE...50.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPN32 PHNC 061600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 126.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 126.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 17.5N 128.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 17.9N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 18.0N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.0N 134.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.0N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 061600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 126.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 126.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 17.5N 128.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 17.9N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 18.0N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.0N 134.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.0N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 061500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 061500UTC 48.7N 163.8E FAIR MOVE NE 38KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 071500UTC 56.3N 172.2W 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 061500 *** WARNING 061500. WARNING VALID 071500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0612 IOKE (0612) 980 HPA AT 48.7N 163.8E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 38 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 53.3N 174.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 56.3N 172.2W WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=