** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 44.9N 156.6E 980HPA 25M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 170KM P12HR NE 70KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0612 IOKE (0612) 980 HPA AT 44.9N 156.7E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 37 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 50.9N 167.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 54.5N 178.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 44.9N 156.7E FAIR MOVE NE 37KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 54.5N 178.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 060600 CCA *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0612 IOKE (0612) 980 HPA AT 44.9N 156.7E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 37 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 50.9N 167.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 54.5N 178.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 060700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL, COMORIN AREA AND PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT. 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTKO20 RKSL 060600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19 NAME STS 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 060600UTC 44.9N 156.7E MOVEMENT NE 37KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 070600UTC 54.2N 178.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ42 KNHC 060835 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60C IN A BAND WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THERE WAS A 47 KT AMSU ESTIMATE AT 0153 UTC. GIVEN THE DECREASING CONVECTION IT IS TEMPTING TO DOWNGRADE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION...BUT THAT SHOULD PROBABLY WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAY BE A BIT FASTER. KRISTY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WILL WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP KRISTY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...SAVE FOR THE BAMD AND LBAR WHICH TURN KRISTY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKENING RIDGE. SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT KRISTY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH A TURN...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE BALANCE OF THE GUIDANCE WESTWARD. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ALL CALL FOR KRISTY TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR EVEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26C...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CONVECTION WILL RETURN AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO TO 40 KT...LESS THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE KRISTY TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR...THEN KRISTY COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO INSTEAD OF STRENGTHENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.3N 125.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.7N 127.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.1N 129.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.2N 130.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 19.0N 138.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 19.0N 141.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 060836 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 125.2W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 125.2W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 130.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 141.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 125.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT41 KNHC 060837 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006 A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BOTH ELONGATED AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...THIS FLARE UP DOES NOT NECESSARILY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OR AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. INDEED...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AT 40 KT AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 42 KT. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE CAUSING THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO CAUSING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE CYCLONE. SHOULD FLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RELAX IN A DAY OR SO ALLOWING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...THE CENTER OF FLORENCE CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND A BIT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION INDICATING SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS BASED ON A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDING 300/11. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF FLORENCE. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN. THE MOST NOTABLE SHIFT IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO NORTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND A LITTLE EAST LATE. GIVEN THE APPARENT NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER INITIALLY...THIS SHIFT APPEARS REASONABLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 18.4N 50.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 19.2N 51.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 20.3N 53.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.4N 55.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 22.4N 57.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 24.4N 62.6W 75 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 27.0N 66.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTNT21 KNHC 060837 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 50.2W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 50.2W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 51.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.3N 53.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 45SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.4N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 45SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.4N 57.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 62.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTNT31 KNHC 060839 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST WED SEP 06 2006 ...FLORENCE REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...1360 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.4 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTCA41 TJSJ 060850 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST MIERCOLES 6 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE PERMANECE SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.2 OESTE O COMO A 845 MILLAS...1360 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. FLORENCE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...18.4 NORTE...50.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/BEVEN ** WTJP31 RJTD 060900 *** WARNING 060900. WARNING VALID 070900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0612 IOKE (0612) 980 HPA AT 46.5N 159.2E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 45 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 52.0N 169.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 55.5N 178.5W WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 46.5N 159.2E FAIR MOVE NE 45KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 55.5N 178.5W 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =