** WTSR20 WSSS 051800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC 00HR 42.9N 153.3E 980HPA 25M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 170KM P12HR NE 70KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 060000 *** WARNING 060000. WARNING VALID 070000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0612 IOKE (0612) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 42.2N 153.1E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 31 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 47.7N 161.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 53.5N 173.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0612 IOKE (0612) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 060000UTC 42.2N 153.1E FAIR MOVE NNE 31KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 170NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 070000UTC 53.5N 173.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ42 KNHC 060235 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006 EASTERLY SHEAR ABATED SOMEWHAT OVER KRISTY AND IT APPEARED THAT THE CENTER HAD BECOME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 35 KT. THIS IS PROBABLY JUST ANOTHER ONE OF KRISTY'S INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...AND SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN AN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL SST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE HOSTILE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRISTY AROUND 120 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MOVES KRISTY SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS PROBABLY BASED ON NEAR-SURFACE STEERING WINDS FOR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM. WHILE THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION...IT IS PREFERABLE TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.1N 123.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 17.4N 125.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.8N 127.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 130.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 18.5N 136.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 139.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 060235 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.9W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.9W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 130.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 18.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT31 KNHC 060237 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006 ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST OR ABOUT 895 MILES...1440 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...49.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT21 KNHC 060237 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 49.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 49.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 51.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 45SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 55.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 45SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.3N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 060238 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006 WHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY LARGE...FINDING THE EXACT CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM THE 2105 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS VERY STRONG...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE BANDING FEATURES. DUE TO THE CENTER LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE....THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND BEGIN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD...CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. FLORENCE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...MUCH LIKE THE EVOLUTION PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW STRENGTHENING AND INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED USING GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...WHICH DEPICT A RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION. THESE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SKILL IN FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER WIND FIELDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.7N 49.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.3N 51.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 20.3N 55.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.3N 57.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 62.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 25.5N 66.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 28.5N 69.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 060315 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST MARTES 5 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE SE ESPERA QUE GANE FUERZA... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.5 OESTE O COMO A 895 MILLAS...1440 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA UNAS 145 MILLAS...230 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...17.7 NORTE...49.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/PASCH ** WTPN21 PGTW 060200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 060151Z SEP 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 167.2E TO 21.0N 167.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 167.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 165.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP NEAR A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 051841Z QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE PRO- VIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE RAPID CONSOLI- DATION OF THE LLCC, INCREASED CONVECTION, AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 070200Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 060300 *** WARNING 060300. WARNING VALID 070300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0612 IOKE (0612) 975 HPA AT 43.3N 154.5E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 31 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 48.2N 162.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 53.9N 174.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 060300UTC 43.3N 154.5E FAIR MOVE NNE 31KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 170NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 070300UTC 53.9N 174.9E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 060534 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 49.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2006 17.4N 49.1W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2006 18.9N 50.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2006 20.0N 52.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.09.2006 20.9N 54.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 21.9N 56.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 22.6N 58.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2006 23.4N 60.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2006 24.5N 62.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2006 26.1N 63.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2006 28.3N 64.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2006 30.5N 65.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2006 32.8N 64.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2006 35.0N 63.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 123.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2006 17.1N 123.4W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2006 17.4N 125.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2006 18.4N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 18.7N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 18.7N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 18.6N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 18.1N 137.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2006 18.1N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2006 17.8N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2006 18.4N 142.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 18.6N 143.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2006 18.5N 144.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2006 17.5N 145.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060534