** WTPQ20 RJTD 051800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 051800UTC 39.3N 151.5E GOOD MOVE NE 24KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 061800UTC 51.5N 169.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NE 49KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 071800UTC 56.3N 170.0W 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 051800 *** WARNING 051800. WARNING VALID 061800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 965 HPA AT 39.3N 151.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 24 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 45.3N 157.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 51.5N 169.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 56.3N 170.0W WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 051800 UTC 00HR 40.2N 151.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NW 70KM/H P+24HR 52.3N 169.4E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 051800 UTC 00HR 40.2N 151.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NE 70KM/H P+24HR 52.3N 169.4E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 051800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 051800UTC 39.3N 151.5E MOVEMENT NE 24KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 061800UTC 50.8N 167.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 66KT 36HR POSITION 070600UTC 53.9N 173.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 980HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 051800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 051800UTC 39.3N 151.5E MOVEMENT NE 24KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 061800UTC 50.8N 167.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 66KT 36HR POSITION 070600UTC 53.9N 173.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 980HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 052028 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006 THE EARLIER BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAVE MORPHED INTO BANDS... GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF TWO HOOKING-TYPE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THIS MIGHT BE A CONSERVATIVE FIGURE IF THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION THAN WE THINK. THE INTENSITY EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS APPEARS TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS... STABLE AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE... A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS THIS GENERAL IDEA AND WAS THE MAIN TOOL FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF KRISTY. SMALL SYSTEMS ARE SOMEWHAT NOTORIOUS FOR THEIR RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 280/10... THOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOTION IS EVEN FASTER. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MIDDLE- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER KRISTY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE STORM TO HEAD GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A SMIDGE TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN CONVECTION... THEN MODIFIED TO ADJUST FOR TYPICAL MOTION ASYMMETRIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 16.7N 122.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 17.1N 124.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 126.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 17.7N 129.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.7N 132.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 17.7N 135.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 17.7N 138.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTPZ22 KNHC 052028 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 122.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 122.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 124.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 126.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.7N 129.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.7N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.7N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT41 KNHC 052030 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE INNER CORE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE...PLUS A 05/1641Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 1003 MB AND 42 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER THAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN EVENTUAL BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 65W-75W FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER ...EACH RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST. GIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THAT A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 5...THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO GENERATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...IT REMAINS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM...AND LARGE CYCLONES TEND TO TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THAN SMALLER ONES DO. AS A RESULT...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WITH A FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING INDICATED AFTER THAT AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER 29-29.5C SSTS AND BENEATH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. IF FLORENCE MOVES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE LIKE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THEN STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LIKE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 17.4N 48.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 49.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 18.8N 51.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 20.6N 56.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 22.3N 61.1W 70 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.3N 65.7W 80 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT21 KNHC 052030 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 48.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 48.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.8N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.6N 56.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 61.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT31 KNHC 052033 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006 ...FLORENCE GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 960 MILES...1550 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...48.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN32 PHNC 052200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 122.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 122.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 17.1N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 17.5N 126.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 17.7N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.7N 129.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.7N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.7N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 052200Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 123.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.// ** WTCA41 TJSJ 052135 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM AST MARTES 5 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...FLORENCE TORNANDOSE MAS FUERTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FLORENCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.5 OESTE O COMO A 960 MILLAS...1550 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA UNAS 125 MILLAS...205 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...17.4 NORTE...48.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTJP31 RJTD 052100 *** WARNING 052100. WARNING VALID 062100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 965 HPA AT 40.6N 152.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 27 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 46.5N 159.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 52.4N 170.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 052100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 052100UTC 40.6N 152.2E FAIR MOVE NNE 27KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 062100UTC 52.4N 170.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NE 47KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 071800UTC 56.3N 170.0W 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =