** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 35.7N 147.5E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 190KM P12HR NNE 30KM/H P+24HR 44.7N 155.9E 980HPA 28M/S P+48HR 53.0N 172.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 35.7N 147.5E GOOD MOVE N 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 160NM EAST 100NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 44.6N 157.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NE 34KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 070600UTC 53.2N 178.3W 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 965 HPA AT 35.7N 147.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 39.8N 150.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 44.6N 157.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 53.2N 178.3W WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 050649 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ,SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTKO20 RKSL 050600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 050600UTC 35.7N 147.5E MOVEMENT N 16KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 060600UTC 45.7N 156.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 66KT 48HR POSITION 070600UTC 54.1N 174.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 980HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTPZ42 KNHC 050826 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006 THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF TENACIOUS KRISTY. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS AND A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...270/6 AND IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.2N 120.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 121.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 050826 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 120.5W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 120.5W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 121.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 120.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT31 KNHC 050827 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST TUE SEP 05 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES...1660 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N...45.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTNT21 KNHC 050827 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 45.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 45.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.9N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 53.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTNT41 KNHC 050827 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006 WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER PERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS. GIVEN THIS AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.7N 45.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.4N 47.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.9N 50.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 53.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.5N 66.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTCA41 TJSJ 050854 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM AST MARTES 5 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PERMANECE AMPLIA PERO DESORGANIZADA... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 45.9 OESTE O COMO A 1030 MILLAS...1660 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...17.7 NORTE...45.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/AVILA ** WTJP31 RJTD 050900 *** WARNING 050900. WARNING VALID 060900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 965 HPA AT 36.6N 148.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 41.5N 151.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 46.9N 159.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 36.6N 148.1E GOOD MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 160NM EAST 100NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 46.9N 159.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NE 37KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 070600UTC 53.2N 178.3W 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =