** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 34.1N 147.2E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNE 30KM/H P+24HR 42.4N 151.6E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 51.0N 166.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 965 HPA AT 34.1N 147.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 37.7N 148.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 42.7N 153.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 51.6N 170.0E WITH 190 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 34.1N 147.2E GOOD MOVE N 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 160NM EAST 100NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 42.7N 153.2E 130NM 70% MOVE NNE 30KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 070000UTC 51.6N 170.0E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 065 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 01C 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 34.2N 147.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.2N 147.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 38.6N 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 43.3N 152.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 48.6N 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 147.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH- EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 050241 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING TO DETERMINE A CENTER POSITION THIS EVENING. BUOY 41041 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION INDICATED A WEAK CIRCULATION HAD PASSED OVER OR NEAR THAT BUOY AROUND 00Z. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS BECOME LESS OBVIOUS IN QUIKSCAT AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A BLEND OF CONVENTIONAL FIX POSITIONS AND A 04/2130Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THIS POSITION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE NOTED IN NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA...AND LEANS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES AND BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THERE MAY BE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MIGRATES TOWARD ANY CONVECTIVE BURSTS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SHOULD BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 65W-75W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PHASE UP WITH A MUCH STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT OFTENTIMES STRONGER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BYPASS AND NOT LINK UP WITH WEAKER TROUGHS SITUATED OVER LOWER LATITUDES. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT POLEWARD BEND BY DAY 5...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN FIGHTING OFF SOME DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTER 72HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AND BY 96-120 HOURS BE NEAR ZERO. THAT IS WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 87 KT BY 120 HOURS ...WHEREAS THE GFDL STILL MAKES THE SYSTEM A MAJOR HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AS INDICATED BY THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND BELOW THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 44.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.9N 45.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.6N 47.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.2N 49.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.8N 51.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 56.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 60.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT21 KNHC 050242 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.8W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.8W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.9N 45.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.6N 47.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 49.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 85NE 70SE 0SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 51.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ22 KNHC 050243 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 119.8W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 119.8W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.1N 120.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 121.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.2N 123.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.4N 124.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 119.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTNT31 KNHC 050246 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM AST MON SEP 04 2006 ....DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1100 MILES...1775 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.3 N...44.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 050255 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 KRISTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE LATEST BURST FIRING UP OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA AND A MORE RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 30 KT FROM TAFB. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...BUT SEEING NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE...KRISTY COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE A LITTLE LONGER THAN INDICATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 235/4. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A BUILDING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FASTER MOTION SEEMS UNLIKELY UNLESS KRISTY CAN REGENERATE INTO A DEEPER SYSTEM. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL NOT...IT REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN ALMOST ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.2N 119.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.1N 120.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 16.1N 121.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/1200Z 16.2N 123.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0000Z 16.4N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTCA41 TJSJ 050302 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT LUNES 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION CERCA DE TORNARSE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS FUE LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 44.8 OESTE O COMO A 1100 MILLAS...1775 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...17.3 NORTE...44.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTJP31 RJTD 050300 *** WARNING 050300. WARNING VALID 060300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 965 HPA AT 34.9N 147.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 38.7N 149.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 44.1N 154.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 34.9N 147.1E GOOD MOVE N 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 160NM EAST 100NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 44.1N 154.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 33KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 070000UTC 51.6N 170.0E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 050510 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 119.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2006 15.9N 119.4W WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2006 16.0N 120.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 16.7N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 17.0N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 17.0N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 17.4N 126.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2006 16.9N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 44.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2006 16.0N 44.6W WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.8N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.8N 47.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 19.3N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 20.1N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 20.7N 54.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2006 21.1N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 21.6N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 22.2N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2006 22.8N 63.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2006 24.2N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2006 25.4N 67.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2006 28.3N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050510 ** WTPN32 PHNC 050400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 119.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 119.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.1N 120.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.1N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.2N 123.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.4N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.0N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: 050400Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 120.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//