** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 30.8N 148.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 37.0N 146.5E 960HPA 35M/S P+48HR 45.4N 153.6E 970HPA 30M/S P+72HR 54.0N 168.7E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 960 HPA AT 30.8N 148.0E CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 33.5N 146.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 36.5N 147.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 45.9N 153.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 54.2N 170.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 30.8N 148.0E GOOD MOVE NW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 36.5N 147.2E 90NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 061200UTC 45.9N 153.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 26KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 071200UTC 54.2N 170.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 CCA *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 960 HPA AT 30.8N 148.0E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 33.5N 146.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 36.5N 147.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 45.9N 153.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 54.2N 170.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 063 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 30.9N 148.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 148.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 33.9N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 37.0N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 40.7N 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 34 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 45.5N 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 31.7N 147.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 041431 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM STRENGTH. CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...THOUGH THESE BANDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0901 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION... AND A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLY RAIN-INFLATED 35 KT VECTORS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH... QUIKSCAT IS NOT CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN INTENSITY AND WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING A LITTLE THIN... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FRACTURE... LEAVING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEHIND... TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM... AND IN ITS WAKE GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND BY BUILDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN SHOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS WILL BE USED...WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A WESTWARD RELOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION BY ABOUT 60 MILES... GIVING A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE MOTION OF 305/10. THE LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SHEARING THE SYSTEM IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH... CAUSING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PULL OUT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND SHOULD ALLOW A WESTWARD TURN AROUND THAT TIME. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SOMEWHAT TO REFLECT THE CENTER RELOCATION... BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST... A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SOME MODELS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD... WHICH IS A LITTLE PUZZLING GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING. WE'VE OPTED TO BE AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GFDL/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.3N 42.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.0N 44.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.8N 45.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 47.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 19.2N 48.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 20.0N 52.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 55.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT21 KNHC 041431 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 42.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 42.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 45.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 47.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 48.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 42.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT31 KNHC 041433 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 ...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1235 MILES...1990 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N...42.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 041434 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST A DAY SINCE A CLEAR CENTER HAS BEEN DISCERNABLE...AND NOW THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING AND MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS. GIVEN THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON JOHN. NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY. MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR ANY RAINFALL OR FLOODING IMPACTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 29.2N 113.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 05/1200Z 30.6N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/0000Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 041434 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 113.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 113.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.6N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 113.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 041436 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 KRISTY IS...AT BEST...A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS AGAIN GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T1.5...AND WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES... ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY PROLONGED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF KRISTY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY RIGHTS...ONE BURST OF CONVECTION A DAY SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT I'D LIKE TO SEE THE PRESENT CONVECTION DISSIPATE BEFORE DECLARING KRISTY A REMNANT LOW...POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...MORE WESTWARD WHILE THE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE AND MORE SOUTHWARD WHEN IT IS NOT. THE ADVISORY MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY BEEN TOO FAST TO THE WEST...PERHAPS GIVING THE SYSTEM CREDIT FOR MORE ORGANIZATION THAN IT REALLY HAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.7N 119.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 16.6N 119.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.7N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/0000Z 16.9N 122.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 041437 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 119.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 119.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.6N 119.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N 121.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.9N 122.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTCA41 TJSJ 041438 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT LUNES 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CASI TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 42.7 OESTE O COMO A 1235 MILLAS...1990 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...16.3 NORTE...42.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTJP31 RJTD 041500 *** WARNING 041500. WARNING VALID 051500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 960 HPA AT 31.6N 147.7E EAST OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 33.8N 146.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 38.2N 148.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 31.6N 147.7E GOOD MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 38.2N 148.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 22KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 061200UTC 45.9N 153.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 26KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 071200UTC 54.2N 170.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040935SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 029 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 29.2N 113.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 113.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.9N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.6N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041600Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 113.5W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON- ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 7 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 041600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040930SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 119.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 119.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.6N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.7N 121.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.9N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 17.2N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041600Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 119.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 041753 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.3N 113.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.3N 113.2W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2006 29.8N 114.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 119.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2006 17.0N 119.1W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2006 16.3N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 16.6N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 17.0N 123.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 17.1N 125.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2006 17.1N 127.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2006 17.2N 128.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 42.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2006 15.9N 42.0W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.4N 44.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 18.1N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.3N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 18.2N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 18.7N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 18.9N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 18.2N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 18.7N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 18.2N 54.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2006 18.9N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2006 20.1N 57.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2006 21.1N 58.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041753