** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 29.7N 149.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 34.6N 146.8E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 41.0N 151.0E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 49.0N 161.0E 980HPA 28M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 955 HPA AT 29.7N 149.0E EASTNORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 35.1N 146.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 45.9N 153.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 54.2N 170.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 29.7N 149.0E GOOD MOVE NW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 35.1N 146.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 060600UTC 45.9N 153.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 30KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 070600UTC 54.2N 170.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTIN20 DEMS 040659 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND CROSSED THE NORTH ORISSA COAST NEAR CHANBALI AROUND 0100 UTC AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH SEPTEMBER, 2006 NEAR LAT 21.0 DEG NORTH AND LONG 86.5 DEG EAST , WEST OF CHNDBALI, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 29.7N 149.0E MOVEMENT NW 14KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 35.1N 146.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT 48HR POSITION 060600UTC 45.0N 153.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT 72HR POSITION 070600UTC 52.4N 168.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 66KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 062 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 29.8N 148.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.8N 148.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 32.4N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 35.6N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 38.8N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 42.9N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 148.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPZ22 KNHC 040831 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 040833 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 I REFUSE TO CLASSIFY KRISTY AS A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS DO NOT EVEN JUSTIFY TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE IS STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED. AS IT IS COMMON IN THESE SYSTEMS...CLUSTERS OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION COULD RE-DEVELOP. THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 17.5N 118.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 040835 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 113.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 113.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 040835 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ITS LOCATION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT JOHN IS WEAKENING FAST. I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM BUT IT IS ALWAYS A GOOD DECISION TO WAIT FOR THE MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CENTER. JOHN APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY BROAD AREA OF MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.4N 113.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 05/0600Z 30.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 040836 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 ...NOT MUCH LEFT OF JOHN.... AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...28.4 N...113.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON JOHN. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT31 KNHC 040837 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1345 MILES...2165 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...15.6 N...41.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTNT41 KNHC 040837 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE BROAD WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE CENTERS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...THEY ARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS AND UNCHANGED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ENCOUNTERING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10 IS UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 45W-55W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. WHILE ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TURN...NEARLY ALL OF THEM ARE NOW MUCH SLOWER IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THIS REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENT AND THE NEW FORECAST IS ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.6N 41.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 42.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 44.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 18.4N 45.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 47.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 51.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 54.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTNT21 KNHC 040837 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 41.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 41.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 40.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 42.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 47.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 41.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTCA41 TJSJ 040900 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 AM EDT LUNES 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL NO SE HA INTENSIFICADO... A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 41.1 OESTE O COMO A 1345 MILLAS...2165 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...15.6 NORTE...41.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 041000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040935SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 28.2N 113.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 113.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 29.0N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 30.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041000Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 113.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 041000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040930SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 022 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 118.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 118.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 18.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 18.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 19.0N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041000Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 118.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 040900 *** WARNING 040900. WARNING VALID 050900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 955 HPA AT 30.3N 148.6E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 36.5N 147.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 30.3N 148.6E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 36.5N 147.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 060600UTC 45.9N 153.6E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 30KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 070600UTC 54.2N 170.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =