** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 040041 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...CORRECTED HEADER.... ...JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.... AT 5 PM CDT...0000 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...27.8 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 28.7N 150.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 32.5N 146.4E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 38.0N 147.4E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 46.0N 155.0E 980HPA 28M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 955 HPA AT 28.7N 150.2E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 32.3N 147.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 39.0N 150.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 46.5N 158.6E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 28.7N 150.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 32.3N 147.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 060000UTC 39.0N 150.0E 160NM 70% MOVE N 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 070000UTC 46.5N 158.6E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 24KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 36 HOURS FROM 040000 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 061 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 28.5N 149.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 149.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 30.8N 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 33.6N 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 36.5N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 40.7N 150.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 48.9N 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 149.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 040228 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.4W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.4W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.9N 42.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 43.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT31 KNHC 040228 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1395 MILES...2245 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...14.8 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 040229 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 113.1W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 113.1W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.0N 113.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.7N 114.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.7N 115.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT41 KNHC 040229 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE APPARENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER ARE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED...HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ELONGATED TO THE NORTH AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...30 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BECAUSE THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATION...THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...COULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PREDICTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...BUT BELOW THE 1800 UTC GFDL GUIDANCE IN 4-5 DAYS. WE BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAD A HIGH INTENSITY BIAS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE OCEAN COUPLING. IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THIS TIME BUT THE LATEST FIXES ARE ALL TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. THEREFORE THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 50W LONGITUDE SHOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO MORE OR LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN WOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND TOWARD THE LEFT IN 3-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN THE 5-DAY TIME FRAME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 14.8N 40.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.9N 42.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.0N 43.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 51.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 22.5N 61.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 040229 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.4W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.4W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 118.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 122.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH ** WTPZ41 KNHC 040230 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...IF IN FACT A CENTER STILL EXISTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2043Z AMSRE REVEALED A WEAK SPIRAL RAIN BAND OUTLINING A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION ABOUT 50 MI NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO...WHICH IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF WHERE JOHN SHOULD BE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 6 HOUR MOTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE. BEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 330/6...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTRAPOLATED DATA. A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE LOW- TO MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER MEXICO...WITH ALL INDICATING DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE EAST BEYOND 24 HOURS TO MAINTAIN A MOTION PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A THREAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.2N 113.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 29.0N 113.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/0000Z 29.7N 114.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/1200Z 30.7N 115.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 040230 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...WEAKER JOHN MAINLY A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT... MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...28.2 N...113.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 040231 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY OF KRISTY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE FLARE UP INDICATED IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY PACKAGE IS NOW DIMINISHING AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE -50 DEGREES CELSIUS OR LESS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. PREVIOUS QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS AND RECENT NESDIS-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLD KRISTY AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR INTENSITY ESTIMATES. FOR THIS ADVISORY...KRISTY WILL REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BUT KRISTY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KRISTY WILL REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR OF 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING...AND COULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL. THE PRESENT MOTION OF KRISTY IS ESTIMATED AT 260/2 WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY BEGAN TO SLIDE BACK TOWARD THE WEST. ALL MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH KRISTY REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO MOVES KRISTY BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOW PACE AND INCREASING EASTERLIES DURING THE MIDDLE TIME PERIOD WILL ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD DIRECTION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PROJECTED TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAIRLY CLOSELY. THIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.8N 118.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.8N 118.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 120.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 122.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 040233 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 PM EDT DOMINGO 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL LEJOS EN EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL... A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 40.4 OESTE O COMO A 1395 MILLAS...2245 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL LUNES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...14.8 NORTE...40.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPN32 PHNC 040400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040330SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 118.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 118.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.8N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.8N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.0N 120.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 18.4N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 19.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 118.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 9 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 594 NM SW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 040400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/040335SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 027 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 28.2N 113.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 113.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 29.0N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.7N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.7N 115.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040400Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 113.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 8 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 283 NM NNW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 040300 *** WARNING 040300. WARNING VALID 050300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 955 HPA AT 29.3N 149.5E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 33.7N 146.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 29.3N 149.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 33.7N 146.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 060000UTC 39.0N 150.0E 160NM 70% MOVE N 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 070000UTC 46.5N 158.6E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 24KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 040445 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 112.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2006 28.3N 112.3W MODERATE 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.4N 113.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 118.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2006 18.1N 118.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.09.2006 17.5N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.8N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 18.6N 122.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 19.3N 124.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 39.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2006 14.5N 39.8W WEAK 12UTC 04.09.2006 15.6N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 16.6N 43.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.5N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 17.8N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 17.8N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 18.1N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 17.8N 47.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2006 18.6N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 19.6N 48.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2006 20.1N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2006 21.2N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2006 22.2N 52.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040445 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 040537 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...JOHN WEAKENING RAPIDLY...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS... MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...28.2 N...113.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA