** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 26.5N 151.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 31.3N 146.8E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 36.3N 146.5E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 45.0N 153.9E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 27.5N 150.8E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 31.3N 146.8E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 36.3N 146.5E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 45.0N 153.9E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031800 *** WARNING 031800. WARNING VALID 041800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 950 HPA AT 27.5N 150.8E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 30.9N 147.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 36.3N 146.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 43.6N 152.6E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 031800UTC 27.5N 150.8E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 041800UTC 30.9N 147.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 051800UTC 36.3N 146.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 061800UTC 43.6N 152.6E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 031800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 031800UTC 27.5N 150.8E MOVEMENT NW 13KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 82KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 041800UTC 31.1N 147.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT 48HR POSITION 051800UTC 36.5N 147.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT 72HR POSITION 061800UTC 43.7N 152.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 032016 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SINCE 1200Z WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -70 C. THE CURRENT MOTION OF 180/2 SIGNALS AN EARLIER-THAN-FORECAST TURN TO THE WEST AND SINCE THE CONVECTION IS MOVING OVER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...WE EXPECT KRISTY TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON MODERATE SHEAR IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE GFDL MODEL. THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS...INTENSIFYING THE TRADE EASTERLIES...AND DRIVING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFS GFDL UKMET ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SPEED WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF SLOW AND GFDL AND GFS FAST. OUR TRACK MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS BUT IS SHADED TOWARDS THE UKMET/ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 17.7N 118.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.5N 118.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 17.3N 118.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 121.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 06/1800Z 18.9N 126.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 032017 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 118.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 121.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.9N 126.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 032030 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...JOHN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT 2 PM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...EAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AND JOHN SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...27.6 N...112.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT41 KNHC 032030 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO GARNER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BUOY 41026 REPORTED 32 KT WINDS LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SINCE DECREASED...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THEREFORE UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12. A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRESENT MOTION TO CONTINUE...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH GREAT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER MOTION OF THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS...WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF BEING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. WITH CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA AND THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER WILL CONSOLIDATE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THE CENTER COULD CONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FROM THESE TWO MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.6N 40.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.6N 41.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 43.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 17.7N 45.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 46.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 54.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 032030 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR... ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA... IS DISRUPTING THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. EVIDENCE OF THIS IS DISPLAYED ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER SEEN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGES... THE EXACT CENTER OF JOHN IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SURFACE WINDS AT SANTA ROSALIA HAVE SHIFTED FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.. SO THE CENTER IS LIKELY WEST OF THAT LOCATION. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA MOSTLY IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE TOMORROW. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT JOHN HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.. NOW 325/6. THIS GENERAL TRACK SEEMS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER STAYS SOMEWHAT COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN GENERAL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE GFDL/GFS KEEP SHIFTING WILDLY FROM A MORE WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE THE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF JOHN TOMORROW... AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 27.6N 112.7W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.4N 113.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1800Z 29.4N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 05/0600Z 30.2N 114.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT31 KNHC 032030 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1525 MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 032030 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT 2 PM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 112.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 112.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.4N 113.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.4N 114.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.2N 114.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT21 KNHC 032031 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 46.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 060 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 27.5N 150.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 150.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 29.4N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 31.5N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 34.4N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 37.8N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 44.9N 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 150.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTPZ22 KNHC 032036 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 ...ADDED 12 FT SEAS... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 118.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 121.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.9N 126.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN ** WTCA41 TJSJ 032038 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062006 500 PM EDT DOMINGO 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE FORMA EN EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL... A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 40.4 OESTE O COMO A 1525 MILLAS...2455 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION SE PUEDE CONVERTIR EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O EL LUNES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...14.6 NORTE...40.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/032135SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 027 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 27.6N 112.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 112.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 28.4N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 29.4N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 30.2N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032200Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 112.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 242 NM NNW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 032200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/032130SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 020 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 118.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 118.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 17.5N 118.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.3N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 18.0N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 18.9N 126.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032200Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 118.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 8 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 585 NM SW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 032100 *** WARNING 032100. WARNING VALID 042100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 950 HPA AT 28.0N 150.6E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 31.6N 147.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 032100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 032100UTC 28.0N 150.6E GOOD MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 042100UTC 31.6N 147.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 051800UTC 36.3N 146.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 061800UTC 43.6N 152.6E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPZ31 KNHC 032331 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.... AT 5 PM CDT...0000 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...27.8 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH