** WTSR20 WSSS 030600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 26.5N 151.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 29.3N 148.3E 945HPA 45M/S P+48HR 33.5N 145.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 41.5N 150.6E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031200 *** WARNING 031200. WARNING VALID 041200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 950 HPA AT 26.6N 151.8E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 29.3N 147.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 33.8N 146.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 39.3N 149.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 26.6N 151.8E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 041200UTC 29.3N 147.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 051200UTC 33.8N 146.0E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 061200UTC 39.3N 149.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 031500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 059 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 26.6N 151.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 151.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 28.3N 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 30.2N 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 32.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 35.4N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 42.0N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 49.5N 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 151.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 031433 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF LORETO AND ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS. AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO LORETO AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MEXICAN NAVY WEATHER STATION AT SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH... 88 KM/HR. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND. JOHN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...27.1 N...112.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 031434 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 JOHN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER WESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A MEXICAN NAVY STATION AT SANTA ROSALIA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 996.1 MB AND 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. JOHN IS MOVING ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 325/8. THE TRACK FORECAST ISN'T EASY THIS MORNING WITH THE SAME PROBLEMS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS PERSISTING. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOHN WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFDL/GFS SHOW A MORE RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD TURN IN A DAY OR SO FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A GOOD TOOL TO SMOOTH THROUGH THESE DIFFERENCES AND HAS VERIFIED WELL. THEREFORE.. THE OFFICIAL IS NUDGED NORTHWARD IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A RESULT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 27.1N 112.5W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 04/0000Z 28.0N 113.3W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.9N 114.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0000Z 29.8N 115.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/1200Z 30.2N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 031435 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF LORETO AND ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS. AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO LORETO AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 112.5W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 112.5W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.0N 113.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.9N 114.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.8N 115.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.2N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 031451 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 KRISTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH CONVECTION IN ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION...ALBEIT WEAK...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND...WITH CONTINUED INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE AIR...THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST KRISTY COULD SURVIVE LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE. KRISTY IS MOVING AT 130/2. OUR TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THIS MOTION AND THEN TURNS KRISTY SOUTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WEAKENS. THE REMNANTS OF KRISTY...IF NOT FULLY DISSIPATED AT 36 HOURS...THEN FOLLOWS THE EASTERLY TRADES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL UKMET AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO EXCEPT DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 18.0N 117.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 17.7N 117.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.1N 117.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.1N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 031453 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 117.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.1N 117.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.1N 118.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN ** WTJP31 RJTD 031500 *** WARNING 031500. WARNING VALID 041500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 950 HPA AT 27.0N 151.3E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 29.9N 147.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 031500UTC 27.0N 151.3E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 041500UTC 29.9N 147.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 051200UTC 33.8N 146.0E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 061200UTC 39.3N 149.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 031617 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC (.) SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,THE 3RD SEPTEMBER, 2006 NEAR LAT.20.5 DEG N AND LONG.88.5 DEG.E,ABOUT 180 KMS SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTELY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTH ORISSA-WEST BENGAL COAST BETWEEN PARADIP AND DIGHA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOULDS ARE SEEN OVER ORISSA,NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEST BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ????/ ** WTNT80 EGRR 031718 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 111.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.09.2006 27.1N 111.8W MODERATE 00UTC 04.09.2006 28.3N 112.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.8N 112.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 117.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.09.2006 17.9N 117.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.09.2006 18.1N 117.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 17.5N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.4N 118.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.9N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.9N 121.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.6N 41.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.6N 41.9W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2006 18.1N 43.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 18.3N 44.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.7N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 18.8N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 18.7N 48.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2006 18.8N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 18.6N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 18.8N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 18.7N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2006 19.6N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031718 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 031754 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO LORETO AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM... WEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO AND ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND. JOHN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...27.3 N...112.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN