** WTIN20 DEMS 030620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ31 KNHC 030626 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ABREOJOS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JOHN OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...26.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTNT80 EGRR 030633 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 111.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2006 25.4N 111.3W MODERATE 12UTC 03.09.2006 26.8N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 27.9N 112.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.0N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 29.7N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 31.2N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 31.9N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 118.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2006 18.1N 118.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2006 17.8N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.2N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.7N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.1N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.7N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.6N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.0N 40.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2006 15.0N 40.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.4N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.1N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.5N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 17.4N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 19.2N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 19.7N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 20.0N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 20.1N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 21.1N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 21.1N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030633 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 25.6N 152.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 28.4N 148.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 050600UTC 32.2N 145.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 060600UTC 37.7N 147.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 945 HPA AT 25.6N 152.6E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 28.4N 148.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 32.2N 145.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 37.7N 147.2E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 60 HOURS FROM 030600 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 25.7N 152.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.6N 148.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 32.8N 145.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 40.9N 148.5E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 030600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 030600UTC 25.6N 152.6E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040600UTC 28.6N 148.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 050600UTC 32.5N 145.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 82KT 72HR POSITION 060600UTC 38.2N 146.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 058 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 25.7N 152.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 152.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 26.8N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 28.7N 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 30.6N 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 33.3N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 40.4N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 33 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 49.6N 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 151.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 030839 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0200 UTC AND A REPORT OF 37 KT FROM SHIP D5XH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/7. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS. THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH FORECAST JOHN TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TO THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SHOW JOHN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS DIFFERS BY ALMOST 180 DEGREES FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE UKMET AND EUROPEAN MODELS APPEAR TO PROVIDE THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTIONS BY SHOWING THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WEST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY ASSUMING JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITHIN A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN NORTHEASTWARD AND ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH JOHN FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. SHOULD JOHN RE-EMERGE BACK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST DUE TO COLD WATERS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 26.3N 112.1W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 03/1800Z 27.1N 112.7W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/0600Z 28.1N 113.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/1800Z 29.2N 114.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 05/0600Z 29.9N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 30.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 030840 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 112.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 112.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.1N 112.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.1N 113.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.2N 114.7W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.9N 115.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 30.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 030841 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH CONVECTION WRAPPING ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 03/0144Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL 40-45 KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS...ON THE WEST SIDE OF KRISTY. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. HOWEVER ...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT KRISTY COULD BE A MINIMAL INTENSITY TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/02. KRISTY REMAINS CAUGHT IN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN...WHICH IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND IS ACTING TO NUDGE KRISTY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AS JOHN GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENS...THE STEERING INFLUENCE BY THE TROUGH ON KRISTY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BY 24-36 HOURS...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...FORCING KRISTY OR ITS REMNANTS ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR THE ADDITION OF A 48-HOUR POSITION. THE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 96 HOURS...ASSUMING THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THAT LONG. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH WILL PLACE THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER 28C SSTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF REGENERATION OF DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IF KRISTY CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS ACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE BACK INTO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 18.1N 118.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.9N 117.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.4N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 117.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0600Z 17.2N 118.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ22 KNHC 030841 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 118.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 118.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.9N 117.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.4N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.1N 117.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.2N 118.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ31 KNHC 030847 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...JOHN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL EXISTS... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 75 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES ...340 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES...95 KM... NORTHEAST OF JOHN RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...26.3 N...112.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTJP31 RJTD 030900 *** WARNING 030900. WARNING VALID 040900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 945 HPA AT 26.1N 152.2E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 28.8N 147.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 26.1N 152.2E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 28.8N 147.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 050600UTC 32.2N 145.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 060600UTC 37.7N 147.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 031000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030935SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 112.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 112.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 27.1N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 28.1N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 29.2N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 29.9N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 30.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031000Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 112.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. AT 090306 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 464 NM SE OF SAN_DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 031000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030930SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 118.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 118.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 17.9N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 17.4N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.1N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.2N 118.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031000Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 118.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 7 FEET. AT 090306 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1044 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 031000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030935SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 112.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 112.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 27.1N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 28.1N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 29.2N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 29.9N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 30.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031000Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 112.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. AT 090306 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 464 NM SE OF SAN_DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 031143 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 ...JOHN HEADING UP THE SPINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 45 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MULEGE MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 MILES ...290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...26.8 N...112.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN