** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 25.1N 153.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 149.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 32.2N 146.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 40.0N 147.6E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 25.1N 153.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 27.8N 149.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 050000UTC 30.9N 146.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 060000UTC 35.8N 145.4E 290NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 945 HPA AT 25.1N 153.6E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 27.8N 149.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 30.9N 146.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 35.8N 145.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 72 HOURS FROM 030000 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 030231 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD CONSTITUCION SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS MOVING 320/7 OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. JOHN IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U. S. ENOUGH TO TURN JOHN WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS SHOW ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW JOHN TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT JOHN WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...WITH THE MAJOR DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...WITH A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE PACIFIC AFTER 36 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM OVER THE PACIFIC ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE PACIFIC ARE NEAR OR BELOW 22C...SO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC...THEN BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BY 72 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 25.6N 111.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.5W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/0000Z 27.4N 113.6W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/1200Z 28.3N 114.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 06/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z 29.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 030231 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 111.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 111.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.4N 113.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.3N 114.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 29.5N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 030233 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 117.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.2N 116.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 030233 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN LACKING PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 18 HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE AIR MASS...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 100/3...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE UKMET...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL SHOW A SHALLOW VORTEX MOVING WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A RETROGRADING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KRISTY. IF KRISTY HANGS ON AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SWIRL WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE REESTABLISHING EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 18.3N 118.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 04/0000Z 17.6N 117.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.2N 116.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 030235 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...NORTH OF CIUDAD CONSTITUCION MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JOHN OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...25.6 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT35 KWNH 030252 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 38 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAIN DIMINISHING... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. AT 11 PM EDT SATURDAY...03Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 15 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB OR 29.94 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 10 PM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... WAKEFIELD 10.62 VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.11 NORFOLK 10.00 WILLIAMSBURG 9.51 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.56 CONCORD 8.54 JAMESTOWN 8.25 APPLE ORCHARD 8.23 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNNS ISLAND 8.00 WEEMS 8.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 BLOOMERY 3.10 MARTINSBURG 3.09 INWOOD 2.75 BUNKER HILL 2.61 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... LEONARDTOWN 10.08 CHARLOTTE HALL 8.48 BRANDYWINE 7.54 SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.92 PRINCE FREDERICK 6.81 SALISBURY 6.80 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 BALTIMORE 5.00 ...DELAWARE... JONES CROSSING 5.15 REDDEN 4.52 GEORGETOWN ARPT 4.50 BRIDGEVILLE 4.15 BETHANY BEACH 4.06 WOODSIDE 3.75 PRIME HOOK 3.73 HARBESON 3.34 BLACKBIRD 3.01 DOVER 2.82 KITTS HUMMOCK 2.81 ...PENNSYLVANIA... PINDLETON 4.36 FRYBURG-MARBLE 4.12 ANSONVILLE 3.92 WILLIAMSPORT 3.38 LILLY 3.32 DAUPHIN 3.22 DECATUR 3.16 HEPBURNVILLE 3.16 LONELY ACRES 3.16 CROWN 3.04 KRISLUND CAMP 3.00 PORT ROYAL 2.90 ALTOONA 2.90 SELLINSGROVE 2.86 HARRISBURG 2.73 ...NEW JERSEY... MARGATE 4.70 CHATSWORTH 4.20 CHARLOTTEBURG 3.64 MOUNT HOLLY 3.30 CAPE MAY 3.29 NEW LISBON 3.20 LAKE HOPATCONG 3.20 BASKING RIDGE 3.12 PEQUANNOCK 3.08 WOODBINE 2.98 ATLANTIC CITY 2.87 WILLINGBORO 2.77 ...NEW YORK... KATLIN 3.00 PINE CITY 3.00 ERIN 2.96 WOODHULL 2.76 TUSCARORA 2.64 BELMONT 2.45 SOUTHPORT 2.42 PORTAGEVILLE 2.30 CAMERON HILLS 2.15 BIG FLATS 2.04 LOCKPORT 2.00 PERRY 2.00 REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...40.7 NORTH...AND 76.9 WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 35 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO TO BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 03/0300Z 40.7N 76.9W 12HR VT 03/1200Z 42.0N 76.9W 24HR VT 04/0000Z 43.6N 77.1W...OVER CANADA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 057 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 153.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 153.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.4N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 27.8N 149.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 29.5N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 31.6N 145.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 37.6N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 43.8N 151.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 49.6N 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 152.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 030316 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST SUN SEP 3 2006 ...TYPHOON IOKE MOVING AWAY FROM MINAMI TORI SHIMA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA 645 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 685 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA AND 960 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 115 MPH. A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...25.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 152.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON IOKE. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN31 PHNC 030400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030335SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 25.3N 111.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 111.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.4N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 27.4N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.3N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 29.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030400Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 111.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 93 NM NW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 25.3N 153.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 28.2N 148.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 050000UTC 30.9N 146.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 060000UTC 35.8N 145.4E 290NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 030300 *** WARNING 030300. WARNING VALID 040300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 945 HPA AT 25.3N 153.1E NORTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 28.2N 148.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN32 PHNC 030400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030330SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 118.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 118.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.0N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 17.6N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.2N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030400Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 118.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 7 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 410 NM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 030530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 111.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2006 25.4N 111.3W MODERATE 12UTC 03.09.2006 26.8N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 27.9N 112.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.0N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 29.7N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 31.2N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 31.9N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 118.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2006 18.1N 118.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2006 17.8N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.2N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.7N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.1N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.7N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.6N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.0N 40.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2006 15.0N 40.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.4N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.1N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.5N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 17.4N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 19.2N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 19.7N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 20.0N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 20.1N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 21.1N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2006 21.1N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030530