** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 24.5N 155.0E 935HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 26.7N 150.2E 935HPA 55M/S P+48HR 29.6N 147.1E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 34.0N 144.4E 955HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 021800 *** WARNING 021800. WARNING VALID 031800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 945 HPA AT 24.5N 155.0E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.6N 150.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 29.2N 147.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 32.9N 144.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 24.5N 155.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 130NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 26.6N 150.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 041800UTC 29.2N 147.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 051800UTC 32.9N 144.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 021800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 021800UTC 24.5N 155.0E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 031800UTC 26.8N 150.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 041800UTC 29.6N 146.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 72HR POSITION 051800UTC 34.1N 143.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 82KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ41 KNHC 022033 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN ON SATELLITE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SPENT AT LEAST 12 HOURS OVER LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... COLDER WATERS SHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER THE SEVERELY WEAKENED CYCLONE EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK... MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... NOW 315/7. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH OF A WESTWARD TURN... IF ANY... TO EXPECT AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY TRACK FROM RUN-TO-RUN. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 25.0N 111.2W 60 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 022033 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 111.2W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 111.2W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 022035 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.9N 117.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 022035 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 KRISTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE 02 SEP 1318Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT WHILE THE NCEP RETRIEVALS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION OPENING, THE FNMOC AND AMBIGUITY REVIEW SUPPORTS A CLOSED CENTER WITH A FEW 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS. FURTHER, THE MASS OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IS ACCELERATING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700 MB WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INTRUSION OF DRY, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER. WHILE WE EXPECT KRISTY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AN AREA OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAY RETARD THE DISSIPATION. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A MORE CONSISTENT SUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS...OUR FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE DYANMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS UNUSUAL EASTERWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 18.3N 118.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.9N 117.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTNT35 KWNH 022047 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 37 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 PM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.11 NORFOLK 10.00 WILLIAMSBURG 9.51 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.56 CONCORD 8.54 JAMESTOWN 8.25 APPLE ORCHARD 8.23 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 MARTINSBURG 3.08 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... LEONARDTOWN 10.08 CHARLOTTE HALL 8.48 BRANDYWINE 7.54 SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.92 PRINCE FREDERICK 6.81 SALISBURY 6.80 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 BALTIMORE 5.00 ...DELAWARE... JONES CROSSING 4.76 GEORGETOWN 4.51 REDDEN 4.35 GEORGETOWN 4.29 BRIDGEVILLE 3.98 BETHANY BEACH 3.61 PRIME HOOK 3.59 HARBESON 3.34 DOVER 2.82 KITTS HUMMOCK 2.81 BLACKBIRD 2.77 ...PENNSYLVANIA... PINDLETON 4.36 FRYBURG-MARBLE 4.04 ANSONVILLE 3.92 WILLIAMSPORT 3.38 LILLY 3.32 DAUPHIN 3.22 DECATUR 3.16 HEPBURNVILLE 3.16 LONELY ACRES 3.16 CROWN 3.04 KRISLUND CAMP 3.00 PORT ROYAL 2.90 ALTOONA 2.90 SELLINSGROVE 2.86 HARRISBURG 2.73 ...NEW JERSEY... CHATSWORTH 3.33 WOODBINE 2.66 ESTELLE MANOR 2.52 FORSYTHE 2.48 HAMMONTON 2.43 ATLANTIC CITY 2.37 MCQUIRE AFB 2.25 MOUNT HOLLY 2.20 NEW LISBON 2.05 ATSION 2.00 ...NEW YORK... EAST WOODHULL 1.78 TUSCARORA 1.52 JASPER 1.44 ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...39.4 NORTH...AND 76.9 WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/2100Z 39.4N 76.9W 12HR VT 03/0600Z 41.3N 77.5W 24HR VT 03/1800Z 43.6N 77.7W 36HR VT 04/0600Z 45.1N 76.7W...OVER CANADA $$ ** WTNT35 KWNH 022049 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 37 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 PM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.11 NORFOLK 10.00 WILLIAMSBURG 9.51 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.56 CONCORD 8.54 JAMESTOWN 8.25 APPLE ORCHARD 8.23 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 MARTINSBURG 3.08 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... LEONARDTOWN 10.08 CHARLOTTE HALL 8.48 BRANDYWINE 7.54 SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.92 PRINCE FREDERICK 6.81 SALISBURY 6.80 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 BALTIMORE 5.00 ...DELAWARE... JONES CROSSING 4.76 GEORGETOWN 4.51 REDDEN 4.35 GEORGETOWN 4.29 BRIDGEVILLE 3.98 BETHANY BEACH 3.61 PRIME HOOK 3.59 HARBESON 3.34 DOVER 2.82 KITTS HUMMOCK 2.81 BLACKBIRD 2.77 ...PENNSYLVANIA... PINDLETON 4.36 FRYBURG-MARBLE 4.04 ANSONVILLE 3.92 WILLIAMSPORT 3.38 LILLY 3.32 DAUPHIN 3.22 DECATUR 3.16 HEPBURNVILLE 3.16 LONELY ACRES 3.16 CROWN 3.04 KRISLUND CAMP 3.00 PORT ROYAL 2.90 ALTOONA 2.90 SELLINSGROVE 2.86 HARRISBURG 2.73 ...NEW JERSEY... CHATSWORTH 3.33 WOODBINE 2.66 ESTELLE MANOR 2.52 FORSYTHE 2.48 HAMMONTON 2.43 ATLANTIC CITY 2.37 MCQUIRE AFB 2.25 MOUNT HOLLY 2.20 NEW LISBON 2.05 ATSION 2.00 ...NEW YORK... EAST WOODHULL 1.78 TUSCARORA 1.52 JASPER 1.44 ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...39.4 NORTH...AND 76.9 WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/2100Z 39.4N 76.9W 12HR VT 03/0600Z 41.3N 77.5W 24HR VT 03/1800Z 43.6N 77.7W 36HR VT 04/0600Z 45.1N 76.7W...OVER CANADA $$ ** WTNT35 KWNH 022051 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 37 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW JERSEY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 PM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.11 NORFOLK 10.00 WILLIAMSBURG 9.51 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.56 CONCORD 8.54 JAMESTOWN 8.25 APPLE ORCHARD 8.23 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 MARTINSBURG 3.08 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... LEONARDTOWN 10.08 CHARLOTTE HALL 8.48 BRANDYWINE 7.54 SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.92 PRINCE FREDERICK 6.81 SALISBURY 6.80 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 BALTIMORE 5.00 ...DELAWARE... JONES CROSSING 4.76 GEORGETOWN 4.51 REDDEN 4.35 GEORGETOWN 4.29 BRIDGEVILLE 3.98 BETHANY BEACH 3.61 PRIME HOOK 3.59 HARBESON 3.34 DOVER 2.82 KITTS HUMMOCK 2.81 BLACKBIRD 2.77 ...PENNSYLVANIA... PINDLETON 4.36 FRYBURG-MARBLE 4.04 ANSONVILLE 3.92 WILLIAMSPORT 3.38 LILLY 3.32 DAUPHIN 3.22 DECATUR 3.16 HEPBURNVILLE 3.16 LONELY ACRES 3.16 CROWN 3.04 KRISLUND CAMP 3.00 PORT ROYAL 2.90 ALTOONA 2.90 SELLINSGROVE 2.86 HARRISBURG 2.73 ...NEW JERSEY... CHATSWORTH 3.33 WOODBINE 2.66 ESTELLE MANOR 2.52 FORSYTHE 2.48 HAMMONTON 2.43 ATLANTIC CITY 2.37 MCQUIRE AFB 2.25 MOUNT HOLLY 2.20 NEW LISBON 2.05 ATSION 2.00 ...NEW YORK... EAST WOODHULL 1.78 TUSCARORA 1.52 JASPER 1.44 ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...39.4 NORTH...AND 76.9 WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/2100Z 39.4N 76.9W 12HR VT 03/0600Z 41.3N 77.5W 24HR VT 03/1800Z 43.6N 77.7W 36HR VT 04/0600Z 45.1N 76.7W...OVER CANADA $$ ** WTNT35 KWNH 022059 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 37 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW JERSEY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH SATURDAY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 PM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.11 NORFOLK 10.00 WILLIAMSBURG 9.51 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.56 CONCORD 8.54 JAMESTOWN 8.25 APPLE ORCHARD 8.23 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 MARTINSBURG 3.08 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... LEONARDTOWN 10.08 CHARLOTTE HALL 8.48 BRANDYWINE 7.54 SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.92 PRINCE FREDERICK 6.81 SALISBURY 6.80 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 BALTIMORE 5.00 ...DELAWARE... JONES CROSSING 4.76 GEORGETOWN 4.51 REDDEN 4.35 BRIDGEVILLE 3.98 BETHANY BEACH 3.61 PRIME HOOK 3.59 HARBESON 3.34 DOVER 2.82 KITTS HUMMOCK 2.81 BLACKBIRD 2.77 ...PENNSYLVANIA... PINDLETON 4.36 FRYBURG-MARBLE 4.04 ANSONVILLE 3.92 WILLIAMSPORT 3.38 LILLY 3.32 DAUPHIN 3.22 DECATUR 3.16 HEPBURNVILLE 3.16 LONELY ACRES 3.16 CROWN 3.04 KRISLUND CAMP 3.00 PORT ROYAL 2.90 ALTOONA 2.90 SELLINSGROVE 2.86 HARRISBURG 2.73 ...NEW JERSEY... CHATSWORTH 3.33 WOODBINE 2.66 ESTELLE MANOR 2.52 FORSYTHE 2.48 HAMMONTON 2.43 ATLANTIC CITY 2.37 MCQUIRE AFB 2.25 MOUNT HOLLY 2.20 NEW LISBON 2.05 ATSION 2.00 ...NEW YORK... EAST WOODHULL 1.78 TUSCARORA 1.52 JASPER 1.44 ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...39.4 NORTH...AND 76.9 WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/2100Z 39.4N 76.9W 12HR VT 03/0600Z 41.3N 77.5W 24HR VT 03/1800Z 43.6N 77.7W 36HR VT 04/0600Z 45.1N 76.7W...OVER CANADA '$$ ** WTPZ31 KNHC 022109 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN TRAVELING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...25.0 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPQ31 PGUM 022116 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 730 AM GUAM LST SUN SEP 3 2006 ...TYPHOON IOKE PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA 685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 880 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK BUT AT A SLIGHTLY REDUCED SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 125 MPH. A SLIGHTLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...24.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 154.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 022100 *** WARNING 022100. WARNING VALID 032100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 945 HPA AT 24.7N 154.4E NORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 27.1N 150.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 022100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 022100UTC 24.7N 154.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 130NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 032100UTC 27.1N 150.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 041800UTC 29.2N 147.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 051800UTC 32.9N 144.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPZ31 KNHC 022347 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CIUDAD CONSTITUCION MEXICO AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH OF LORETO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. CIUDAD CONSTITUCION RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 990.4 MB... 29.25 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...25.3 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN