** WTSR20 WSSS 020600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 021200 *** WARNING 021200. WARNING VALID 031200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 24.0N 156.3E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 25.8N 151.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 28.1N 148.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 31.0N 144.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 021200UTC 24.0N 156.3E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 031200UTC 25.8N 151.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 041200UTC 28.1N 148.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 051200UTC 31.0N 144.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC 00HR 24.0N 156.3E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 25.9N 151.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 28.5N 147.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 31.9N 144.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 021500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 055 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 24.0N 156.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 156.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.0N 153.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.1N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 27.3N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.7N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 33.2N 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 38.6N 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 44.5N 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 155.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 021439 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 AFTER BRIEFLY EMERGING INTO THE BAHIA LA PAZ... THE CENTER IS MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ON BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE EYE FEATURE ON SATELLITE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT THOUGH THERE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LONG INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT ESTIMATE AS FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE HURRICANE'S CORE. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT A STEADY RATE AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER BAJA. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER IT EMERGES FROM THE PENINSULA IN A COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE COLDER WATERS WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... THE SMALL SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT... NOW 320/8. IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... SINCE THE LAST MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE GFDL IS NOW ONE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS AFTER BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD JOHN SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSE TO FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 24.5N 110.8W 70 KT...NEAR COAST 12HR VT 03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 021439 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 110.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 110.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 021440 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN LASHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH LAND. JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.5 N...110.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 021446 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS. KRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S CURRENT POSITION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS ALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES. OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON FASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATED 48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1200Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 021447 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 021500 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 ...CORRECTION TO KRISTY STATUS IN THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 021502 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...CORRECTION TO REFLECT THE STATUS OF KRISTY IN THE FORECAST... TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS. KRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S CURRENT POSITION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS ALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES. OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON FASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA ** WTNT35 KWNH 021504 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE STARTING TO MOVE NORTH... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND DELAWARE. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. AT 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...15Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...AND 76.8 LONGITUDE WEST OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER WATER AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB OR 29.76 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 10 AM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.11 NORFOLK 10.00 WILLIAMSBURG 9.51 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.56 JAMESTOWN 8.25 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 SKYLAND 7.80 CARSON 7.70 WINDSOR 7.63 YALE 7.50 PORTSMOUTH 7.11 HAMPTON 7.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... LEONARDTOWN 10.08 SNOW HILL 7.19 SALISBURY 6.80 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 OCEAN CITY 4.38 ...DELAWARE... GEORGETOWN 4.50 DOVER 2.82 ...PENNSYLVANIA... PORT ROYAL 2.90 RAINSBURG 2.44 MARYSVILLE 2.40 ALTOONA 2.35 EVERETT 2.32 HARRISBURG 1.69 ...NEW JERSEY... MCGUIRE AFB 1.49 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...38.7 NORTH...AND 76.8 WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 50 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. OTTO/MUSHER FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/1500Z 38.3N 76.8W 12HR VT 03/0000Z 39.9N 76.8W 24HR VT 03/1200Z 42.0N 77.1W 36HR VT 04/0000Z 44.0N 77.2W $$ ** WTNT35 KWNH 021510 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE STARTING TO MOVE NORTH... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND DELAWARE. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. AT 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...15Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO OVER WATER AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB OR 29.76 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 10 AM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.11 NORFOLK 10.00 WILLIAMSBURG 9.51 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.56 JAMESTOWN 8.25 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 SKYLAND 7.80 CARSON 7.70 WINDSOR 7.63 YALE 7.50 PORTSMOUTH 7.11 HAMPTON 7.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... LEONARDTOWN 10.08 SNOW HILL 7.19 SALISBURY 6.80 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 OCEAN CITY 4.38 ...DELAWARE... GEORGETOWN 4.50 DOVER 2.82 ...PENNSYLVANIA... PORT ROYAL 2.90 RAINSBURG 2.44 MARYSVILLE 2.40 ALTOONA 2.35 EVERETT 2.32 HARRISBURG 1.69 ...NEW JERSEY... MCGUIRE AFB 1.49 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...38.7 NORTH...AND 76.8 WEST...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 50 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. OTTO/MUSHER FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/1500Z 38.3N 76.8W 12HR VT 03/0000Z 39.9N 76.8W 24HR VT 03/1200Z 42.0N 77.1W 36HR VT 04/0000Z 44.0N 77.2W $$ ** WTPQ31 PGUM 021517 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 130 AM GUAM LST SUN SEP 3 2006 ...TYPHOON IOKE MOVING TOWARD MINAMI TORI SHIMA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA 785 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 740 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK BUT AT A SLIGHTLY REDUCED SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 125 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...24.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 155.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 021500 *** WARNING 021500. WARNING VALID 031500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 24.2N 155.6E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 26.2N 150.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 021500UTC 24.2N 155.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 031500UTC 26.2N 150.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 041200UTC 28.1N 148.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 051200UTC 31.0N 144.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 021701 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2006 HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 110.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.09.2006 24.9N 110.6W STRONG 00UTC 03.09.2006 25.8N 111.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 27.0N 111.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 28.0N 112.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.0N 112.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 29.8N 113.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 29.8N 114.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 119.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.09.2006 18.6N 119.0W WEAK 00UTC 03.09.2006 18.2N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 17.5N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.2N 117.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.8N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.1N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.7N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.1N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.9N 23.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.09.2006 12.9N 23.5W WEAK 00UTC 04.09.2006 14.8N 22.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.3N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.9N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 18.3N 32.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.9N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 20.9N 35.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2006 22.6N 37.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2006 23.4N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 24.3N 36.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 24.6N 34.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.2N 41.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.2N 41.8W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.0N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 17.4N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 17.2N 45.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 17.4N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 17.8N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 19.0N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 19.3N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2006 19.6N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021701 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 021741 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH LAND. JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...24.6 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA