** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 23.6N 157.7E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 25.3N 152.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 27.1N 148.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.1N 144.9E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 23.6N 157.7E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 25.0N 152.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 26.8N 148.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 29.4N 145.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 23.6N 157.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 25.0N 152.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 040600UTC 26.8N 148.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 050600UTC 29.4N 145.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 020600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 020600UTC 23.6N 157.7E MOVEMENT WNW 15KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030600UTC 25.3N 152.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT 48HR POSITION 040600UTC 27.3N 148.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT 72HR POSITION 050600UTC 29.9N 144.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 020720 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL AND PRTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ22 KNHC 020837 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.0W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.0W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.9N 119.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 118.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 118.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ42 KNHC 020838 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0210Z CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND THAT THE 34-KT WINDS IN THIS SMALL CYCLONE EXTEND ONLY ABOUT 40 NM FROM THE CENTER. NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION WAS PRESENT AT THAT TIME...BUT A BURST HAS SINCE RESUMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. KRISTY REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR NOW...BUT THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. KRISTY HAD BEEN LIMPING WESTWARD AT A COUPLE OF KNOTS...BUT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IT APPEARS TO HAVE PULLED UP STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AND OVERALL THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ANTICIPATE A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...SEEMINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE JOHN LOCATED ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE JOHN GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE...SOME LOW-LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW KRISTY AGAIN MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. SINCE JOHN AND KRISTY WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ANY CLOSER TOGETHER THAN THEY ARE NOW...I AM UNCONVINCED THAT KRISTY WILL BE DRAWN AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. HOWEVER...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SMALL U-TURN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INSIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL 72 HOUR POSITION IS COINCIDENTALLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GFDL...BUT WITHOUT THE BACK AND FORTH MOTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 19.0N 119.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 18.9N 119.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 18.7N 119.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 18.6N 118.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 04/0600Z 18.5N 118.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ31 KNHC 020849 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN PASSING NEAR LA PAZ...STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST OR VERY NEAR LA PAZ MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...24.2 N...110.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ21 KNHC 020850 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 110.8W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.1N 111.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.2N 112.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.2N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.7N 116.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 30.5N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT35 KWNH 020852 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...AND PENNSYLVANIA..NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT. AT 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...09Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...AND 76.7 LONGITUDE WEST OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT VIRGINIA. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.07 NORFOLK 10.00 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.40 JAMESTOWN 8.25 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 CARSON 7.70 WINDSOR 7.63 YALE 7.50 PORTSMOUTH 7.11 HAMPTON 7.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 SALISBURY 6.80 CAROLINE 5.38 OCEAN CITY 4.38 ...DELAWARE... GEORGETOWN 4.36 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...37.4 NORTH...76.7 WEST...NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. PEREIRA FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/0900Z 37.4N 76.7W 12HR VT 02/1800Z 38.9N 76.5W 24HR VT 03/0600Z 40.7N 76.7W 36HR VT 03/1200Z 42.8N 77.6W $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 054 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 157.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 157.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.6N 154.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.4N 152.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 26.2N 150.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 27.3N 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 30.0N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 33.4N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 38.0N 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 157.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1170 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 020859 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS ERODED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...BUT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE INTACT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF LA PAZ. DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT FAR INLAND THE INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8. JOHN IS BEING STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD. THE GFDL AND GFS MADE A RATHER LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND NOW INDICATE THAT JOHN COULD EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE UKMET ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD BUT KEEPS JOHN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. DESPITE THE LARGE CHANGES IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS JUST RIGHT OR EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS JOHN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS...SINCE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OR EVEN BRIEFLY OVER THE BAY OF LA PAZ TODAY. THEREAFTER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS JOHN A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF JOHN. IF THE HURRICANE REMAINS EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT COULD ALSO WEAKEN FASTER OR EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 24.2N 110.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 110.8W 75 KT...NEAR COAST 24HR VT 03/0600Z 26.1N 111.8W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/1800Z 27.2N 112.8W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.7N 116.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT35 KWNH 020905 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...AND PENNSYLVANIA..NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT. AT 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...09Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...AND 76.7 LONGITUDE WEST OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT VIRGINIA. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 4 AM EDT SATURDAY ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.82 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 6.35 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 UPPER SHERANDO 10.07 NORFOLK 10.00 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 DEVILS KNOB 8.40 JAMESTOWN 8.25 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 CARSON 7.70 WINDSOR 7.63 YALE 7.50 PORTSMOUTH 7.11 HAMPTON 7.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.33 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 SALISBURY 6.80 CAROLINE 5.38 OCEAN CITY 4.38 ...DELAWARE... GEORGETOWN 4.36 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT SATURDAY POSITION...37.4 NORTH...76.7 WEST...NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. PEREIRA FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/0900Z 37.4N 76.7W 12HR VT 02/1800Z 38.9N 76.5W 24HR VT 03/0600Z 40.7N 76.7W 36HR VT 03/1200Z 42.8N 77.6W $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 021000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020930SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: STATIONARY 020600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 119.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 119.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.9N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.7N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.6N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 18.5N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 021000Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 119.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 23.8N 157.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 25.4N 151.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 040600UTC 26.8N 148.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 050600UTC 29.4N 145.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 23.8N 157.1E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 25.4N 151.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 020945 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST SAT SEP 2 2006 ...TYPHOON IOKE JUST 200 MILES EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA 695 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 810 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK BUT AT A SLIGHTLY REDUCED SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 130 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...23.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 157.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SUNDAY AT 2 AM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPN31 PHNC 021000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020935SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 109.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 110.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 25.0N 110.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 26.1N 111.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 27.2N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 28.2N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 29.7N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 30.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 021000Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 110.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 021047 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 830 PM GUAM LST SAT SEP 2 2006 ...TYPHOON IOKE JUST 200 MILES EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA 695 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 810 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK BUT AT A SLIGHTLY REDUCED SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 125 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...23.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 157.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SUNDAY AT 2 AM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 021148 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 ...JOHN WEAKENS BUT STILL A HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...24.3 N...110.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA