** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 23.0N 159.3E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 154.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 26.8N 150.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 28.8N 146.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 23.0N 159.3E GOOD MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 24.7N 153.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 040000UTC 26.5N 149.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 050000UTC 28.2N 145.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 23.0N 159.3E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 24.7N 153.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 26.5N 149.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 28.2N 145.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 020232 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CABO DEL ESTE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MULEGE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS NEAR LOS FRAILES MEXICO AND ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. THE EYE OF JOHN MADE LANDFALL NEAR CABO DEL ESTE AROUND 7 PM PDT..0200 UTC. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JOHN NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JOHN REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...23.4 N...109.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 020232 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MULEGE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 020233 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.1W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.1W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 119.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 120.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 120.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.6N 120.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 119.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 020256 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE INDICATE THAT THE 10-12 N MI WIDE EYE OF JOHN MADE LANDFALL NEAR 02Z OVER CABO DEL ESTE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION...BUT NOT YET ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY DROPPING THE MAXIMUM WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY IS THAT JOHN HAS LOST ITS CIRCULAR APPEARANCE WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IF SHEAR IS OCCURRING. SINCE NO AVAILABLE DATA SHOWS SHEAR...THE REASON FOR THIS APPEARANCE IS UNKNOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JOHN IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF JOHN...AND THUS ARE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NOGAPS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT JUMPS TO THE RIGHT...AND ONLY THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF STILL TAKE JOHN WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED NOTABLY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR. SHOULD THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JOHN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR LAND INTERACTION TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY. WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF INFLOW COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK. SHOULD THE CYCLONE STAY OVER OR CLOSE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SLOWER DURING THE POST-36 HR PERIOD THAN SHOWN HERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER JOHN WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THAT REGION EVEN IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DOES NOT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 23.4N 109.6W 95 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W 85 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W 55 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 020257 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SMALL...INTERMITTENT...BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNDER INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF HURRICANE JOHN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 35 TO 45 KT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRYER AND STABLE AIR. KRISTY IS DRIFTING WEST...WITHIN A WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND LARGE SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO INFLUENCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN IMMEDIATE EASTWARD FUJIWARA CAPTURE AND ABSORPTION WITH JOHN. THIS IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONES DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SEEM TOO LARGE...AND FOR THE OBVIOUS REASON THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN DRIFTING GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMMENCING IN 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.0N 119.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 119.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 18.9N 120.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 04/0000Z 18.8N 120.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0000Z 18.6N 120.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTNT35 KWNH 020302 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 34 FOR THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL...NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...AND PENNSYLVANIA. AT 11 PM EDT FRIDAY...03Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF WEST POINT VIRGINIA. THE REMNANT OF ERNESTO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS NOW BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB OR 29.65 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 10 PM EDT ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.65 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 5.84 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... VIRGINIA BEACH 10.43 NORFOLK 10.00 UPPER SHERANDO 9.47 LITTLE PLYMOUTH 9.25 CHESAPEAKE 8.93 TOANO 8.73 JAMESTOWN 8.25 CHINCOTEAGUE 8.00 GWYNN ISLAND 8.00 DEVILS KNOB 7.80 CARSON 7.70 WINDSOR 7.63 YALE 7.50 PORTSMOUTH 7.11 HAMPTON 7.00 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 CHARLES TOWN 2.25 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... SNOW HILL 7.19 HOLLYWOOD 6.13 PRINCESS ANNE 5.90 SALISBURY 5.60 CAROLINE 5.38 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT FRIDAY POSITION...37.3 NORTH...76.8 WEST...NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 AM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 02/0300Z 37.3N 76.8W 12HR VT 02/1200Z 38.3N 76.9W 24HR VT 03/0000Z 39.6N 77.2W 36HR VT 03/1200Z 41.1N 77.9W 48HR VT 04/0000Z 42.4N 78.9W $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 020400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020335SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 109.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 109.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.4N 110.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.5N 110.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 26.7N 111.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 27.5N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 30.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020400Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 109.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 36 FEET. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 61 NM SE OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 020400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020330SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 119.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 119.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.0N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.0N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.9N 120.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 18.8N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.6N 120.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020400Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 119.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 10 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 581 NM WSW OF LA PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 23.2N 158.4E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 24.8N 153.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 23.2N 158.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 24.8N 153.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 040000UTC 26.5N 149.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 050000UTC 28.2N 145.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 020408 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST SAT SEP 2 2006 ...TYPHOON IOKE SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA 570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 130 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...23.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 158.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 020505 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.09.2006 HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 108.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2006 23.1N 108.8W STRONG 12UTC 02.09.2006 24.6N 110.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 25.7N 111.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 27.1N 112.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 28.2N 112.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.4N 113.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 29.8N 114.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 118.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2006 19.3N 118.9W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2006 18.9N 119.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 18.5N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 17.7N 118.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.0N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.9N 117.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 16.7N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 16.7N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.3N 37.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.09.2006 10.3N 37.9W WEAK 00UTC 03.09.2006 12.9N 36.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 14.8N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.1N 41.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 18.6N 44.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 18.6N 46.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 19.0N 48.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 20.2N 51.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 20.5N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 22.1N 52.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2006 24.5N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2006 25.8N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020505 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 020556 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...JOHN LASHING THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...CENTER NEARING LA PAZ... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA....AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JOHN REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...23.8 N...109.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB