** WTPZ31 KNHC 011811 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS WOULD BRING JOHN BACK TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL. JOHN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...109.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 22.5N 161.0E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 24.4N 155.3E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 26.2N 150.7E 935HPA 55M/S P+72HR 28.8N 147.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 22.4N 161.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 110NM 30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 24.0N 156.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 031800UTC 26.0N 151.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 041800UTC 28.0N 147.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 011800 *** WARNING 011800. WARNING VALID 021800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 22.4N 161.0E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 24.0N 156.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.0N 151.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 28.0N 147.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 011800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 011800UTC 22.4N 161.0E MOVEMENT WNW 13KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 021800UTC 24.2N 155.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT 48HR POSITION 031800UTC 26.2N 151.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT 72HR POSITION 041800UTC 28.3N 147.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ31 KNHC 012032 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...EYE OF JOHN A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. THESE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE JOHN WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...22.8 N...109.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 012033 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. THESE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 109.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 109.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 012035 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON MISSION EARLIER TODAY WERE 102 KT AT 700 MB... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 92 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER... AFTER THE RECON LEFT... JOHN FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS INDICATED BY CABO SAN LUCAS RADAR. THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY RECOVERED A LITTLE FROM THE TEMPORARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT... AND THE WINDS WILL BE NUDGED DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN EARLIER HAS CONTINUED... NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 335/7. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE SIX HOURS AGO. THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET ARE INDICATING THAT JOHN WILL FIND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. THE MINORITY SOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEFTWARD TURN AFTER INTERACTION WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MOVED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY IF THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET CLUSTER IS CORRECT. THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND... CONSEQUENTLY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST.. WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT JOHN WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY... PROBABLY EMERGING IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER IT REEMERGES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND WITH A DISSIPATION OVER COLD WATER BY 5 DAYS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WOULD HAVE THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATE IN JUST A FEW DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.8N 109.0W 95 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W 75 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 012055 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.2N 118.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 119.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 121.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 012055 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 SMALL TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. KRISSY IS VERY NEAR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK SO ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TO UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.2N 118.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.2N 118.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.2N 119.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1800Z 19.2N 121.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KWNH 012107 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 33 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY. AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR 25 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA. ERNESTO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION AT THIS SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 4 PM EDT ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.65 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 5.84 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... WITTS ORCHARD 6.64 BACK BAY 6.43 ORISKANY 6.19 CONCORD 5.89 SNOW CREEK 5.68 GRAYSON HIGHLAND 4.72 COPPER HILL 4.36 ROCKY MOUNT 4.29 NORFOLK INTL ARPT 4.20 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... CAROLINE 1.68 RIVERDALE 1.12 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...37.2 NORTH...77.1 WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 35 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 01/2100Z 37.2N 77.1W 12HR VT 02/0600Z 38.6N 77.0W 24HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 77.8W 36HR VT 03/0600Z 42.6N 78.4W 48HR VT 03/1800Z 44.7N 77.6W $$ ** WTNT35 KWNH 012108 *** TCPAT5 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 33 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY. AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR 25 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA. ERNESTO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION AT THIS SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 4 PM EDT ...FLORIDA... ROCK ISLAND 6.74 IMMOKALEE 5.96 MOORE HAVEN 4.74 KISSIMMEE 4.28 LEHIGH ACRES 4.16 LAKE WALES 3.85 OCHOPEE 3.78 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MT PLEASANT 6.65 MYRTLE BEACH 6.20 MCCLELLANVILLE 5.84 DANIEL ISLAND 4.50 SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05 CONWAY MARINA 4.00 ...NORTH CAROLINA... GRIFTON 9.85 CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71 WILMINGTON 9.58 KINSTON 9.57 SNOW HILL 8.40 NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06 WALLACE 8.00 TRANTERS CREEK 7.57 LONGWOOD 7.23 GREENVILLE 7.13 RICHLANDS 7.06 ...VIRGINIA... WITTS ORCHARD 6.64 BACK BAY 6.43 ORISKANY 6.19 CONCORD 5.89 SNOW CREEK 5.68 GRAYSON HIGHLAND 4.72 COPPER HILL 4.36 ROCKY MOUNT 4.29 NORFOLK INTL ARPT 4.20 ...WEST VIRGINIA... ELLISON RIDGE 3.20 RIPLEY 2.50 SPENCER 2.48 RACINE 2.43 TORNADO 2.12 ...MARYLAND... CAROLINE 1.68 RIVERDALE 1.12 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...37.2 NORTH...77.1 WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 35 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. TRIMARCO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 01/2100Z 37.2N 77.1W 12HR VT 02/0600Z 38.6N 77.0W 24HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 77.8W 36HR VT 03/0600Z 42.6N 78.4W 48HR VT 03/1800Z 44.7N 77.6W $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 22.8N 160.0E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 24.4N 154.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 22.8N 160.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 24.4N 154.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 031800UTC 26.0N 151.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 041800UTC 28.0N 147.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 935 HPA AT 22.8N 160.0E EAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 95 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 24.4N 154.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 22.8N 160.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 24.4N 154.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 031800UTC 26.0N 151.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 041800UTC 28.0N 147.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 012156 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST SAT SEP 2 2006 ...TYPHOON IOKE SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 393 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA 470 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 980 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 130 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...22.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 160.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPZ31 KNHC 012339 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS...EYEWALL MOVING ONTO THE COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. THESE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...EAST OF SAN JOSE DEL CABO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF JOHN WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...109.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN