** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 21.8N 162.4E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 23.8N 157.2E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 25.8N 152.1E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 28.5N 148.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTUS82 KILM 011239 RRA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-011400- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 840 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FROM NWS WILMINGTON. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF WILMINGTON. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... WATER LEVELS IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL. AS ERNESTO CROSSED THE AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT...SURGE LEVELS EXCEEDED TIDES BY AROUND 3 FT AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...1 FOOT AT SUNSET BEACH...AND LESS THAN 1 FOOT AT MYRTLE BEACH. ...WINDS... OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ON THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 45MPH...DIMINISHING FROM GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS WERE GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS ERNESTO MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH. ...INLAND FLOODING... RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 10 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...AND 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER PENDER...BRUNSWICK AND EASTERN HORRY AND EASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. RAINFALL WAS 2 TO 4 INCHES FURTHER INLAND AND IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BECOMING ISOLATED BY MID DAY. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT THE IN BLADEN COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST LATER TODAY ON THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR RIVER AT BURGAW. THE GREAT PEE DEE RIVER AT PEE DEE IS FORECAST TO FLOOD MONDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... BECAUSE ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED...THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM NWS WILMINGTON. A STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 930 HPA AT 21.8N 162.4E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 23.6N 157.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 25.8N 152.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 27.8N 148.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 21.8N 162.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 110NM 30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 23.6N 157.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 031200UTC 25.8N 152.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 041200UTC 27.8N 148.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 051 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 162.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 162.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.1N 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.2N 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 25.1N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.8N 152.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 27.5N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.6N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 32.3N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 161.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 011428 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON ERNESTO. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 36.4N 77.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/0000Z 41.5N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT25 KNHC 011428 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 77.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 77.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 41.5N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 77.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 011428 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... AT 11 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE RAINS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...36.4 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 011440 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 A 0959 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ESTIMATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KRISTY IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE DATA T-NUMBERS AND CI NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AND ENCOUNTER WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THESE COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD WEAKEN KRISTY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING KRISTY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN. THE UKMET...GFS...GFD...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TAKE JOHN SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DISSIPATE IT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...BUT SLOWER...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.3N 118.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 118.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.2N 119.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 120.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 011440 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.2N 119.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.2N 120.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTNT85 KNHC 011443 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC031-055-095-133-012100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-158-012100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ NCC013-029-049-053-137-139-143-177-187-012100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ AMZ130-135-012100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... ** WTPZ41 KNHC 011455 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 A DROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 MB WITH 19 KT OF SURFACE WINDS...WHICH INDICATES A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 954 MB. HOWEVER THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 98 KT. THE PLANE HASN'T SAMPLED THE ENTIRE STORM... AND WITH SUCH A LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 100 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE RING OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE CENTER OF JOHN HAS WARMED SOME THIS MORNING... THOUGH THE EYE IS BECOMING WARMER AND BETTER-DEFINED. THESE CHANGES MAY BE DUE TO ONGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS SEEN ON CABO SAN LUCAS RADAR... WHICH MAKES INTENSITY ESTIMATES RATHER UNCERTAIN. JOHN HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY... AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 310/6. THIS SLOW-DOWN SHOULD BE TEMPORARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO... WHICH SHOULD PUSH JOHN ALONG SOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ACCELERATION AND IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THIS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER MODELS ARE DIVERGENT... WITH THE GFS/GFDL FARTHER TO THE RIGHT SHOWING A THREAT TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHILE THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO NORTH IN THE SHORT- TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... AND LATER IN THE PERIOD IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRENGTHENING BEFORE JOHN NEARS THE COAST TONIGHT. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SHEAR AND THE WATERS ARE QUITE WARM IN THAT AREA. THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD FORCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. JOHN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FAST RATE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SSTS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS.... LIKELY CAUSING DISSIPATION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 22.0N 108.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.9N 110.0W 105 KT...INLAND NEAR COAST 24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 111.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.8N 112.8W 95 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 114.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.3N 116.6W 60 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 26.5N 119.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 26.5N 123.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 011455 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.9N 110.0W...INLAND NEAR COAST MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.8N 112.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N 114.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.3N 116.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 26.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N 123.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 011458 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...DANGEROUS JOHN APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 011504 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 32 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...CORRECTION TO AWIPS HEADER FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY ...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... AT 11 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE RAINS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...36.4 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPQ31 PGUM 011518 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST SAT SEP 2 2006 ...IOKE WEAKENING...NO LONGER A SUPER TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 376 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. 500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 130 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...22.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 161.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTCA45 TJSJ 011518 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 32 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...ERNESTO ES AHORA UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL... DESDE LAS 11 AM EDT...1200 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT HACIA EL SUR INCLUYENDO PAMLICO SOUND Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. AHORA ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE GALERNA PARA LA COSTA ATLANTICA Y CHESAPEAKE BAY DESDE SURF CITY CAROLINA DEL NORTE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LAS AGUAS DE NUEVA INGLATERRA. VER PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 36.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.6 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS...130 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE NORFOLK VIRGINIA. LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTA DIRECCION GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EXTRATROPICAL EN LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 7 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...INCLUYENDO EK CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS... DESDE VIRGINIA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL DOMINGO...CON TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS POSIBLES. ADEMAS ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CANTIDADES DE 2 PULGADAS SOBRE EL EXTREMO NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA EL VIERNES EN LA TARDE. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODOS QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS CON ESTAS LLUVIAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADAS SOBRE EL EXTREMO ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EL SURESTE DE VIRGINA DURANTE TODO EL DIA DE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...36.4 NORTE...77.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA QUE SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTUS82 KMHX 011523 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103 -104-011830- TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1115 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED AS ERNESTO IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM AND FLOODING INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ERNESTO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS DIMINISHING AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH BUT WERE STILL RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAIN HAS ENDED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE TAR RIVER AT GREENVILLE, THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON, CONTENTNIA CREEK AT HOOKERTON, AND ON THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR RIVER AT CHINQUAPIN. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE WILL BE THE FINAL LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO. $$ TK ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 22.1N 161.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 110NM 30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 23.9N 156.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 031200UTC 25.8N 152.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 041200UTC 27.8N 148.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 930 HPA AT 22.1N 161.7E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 23.9N 156.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 011720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 36.1N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 36.1N 77.3W INTENSE 00UTC 02.09.2006 37.7N 77.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 39.1N 77.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 41.4N 78.55 WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 109.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 21.3N 109.5W STRONG 00UTC 02.09.2006 22.6N 109.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 23.4N 110.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 25.3N 110.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 26.7N 111.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 27.9N 111.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 29.0N 112.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 118.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 19.0N 118.4W MODERATE 00UTC 02.09.2006 20.1N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 20.1N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 19.9N 119.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 19.5N 119.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.8N 22.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 11.8N 22.7W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2006 11.8N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 12.5N 22.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 12.6N 22.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 12.5N 23.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 13.8N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 13.5N 28.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 14.1N 30.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 14.4N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 16.9N 34.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 18.7N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 19.5N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2006 21.2N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.4N 37.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2006 13.4N 37.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2006 14.4N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.1N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 18.6N 43.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 19.6N 45.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 19.7N 47.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 20.4N 49.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 21.9N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2006 22.7N 52.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2006 23.7N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011720 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 011749 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS WOULD BRING JOHN BACK TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL. JOHN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION......22.3 N...109.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA