** WTNT35 KNHC 010600 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HEAVY RAINS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT85 KNHC 010603 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC019-031-055-095-129-133-141-SCC043-051-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-158-250-252-254-256-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ NCC013-029-049-053-137-139-143-177-187-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ AMZ130-135-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...AKQ... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 010619 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 30A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO MOVIENDOSE A TIERRA SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... ...AUN PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LLUVIAS FUERTES... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE GALERNA PARA LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y LA BAHIA DE CHESAPEAKE AL NORTE DEL AREA DEL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBIDO AL FUERTE GRADIENTE DE PRESION AL NORTE DE ERNESTO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.0 OESTE...O EN TIERRA CERCA DE 20 MILLAS...30 KM...EL NORTE NOROESTE DE WILMINGTON DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...25 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO SOBRE TIERRA SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...105 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 70 MPH FUE REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE EN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE REPORTARON UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EN EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS HASTA EL SABADO...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA HASTA EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...34.5 NORTE...78.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTIN20 DEMS 010625 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA ,EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTUS82 KILM 010638 RRA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-011045- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 240 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 5 AM. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.07 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SALT WATER FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG NEW HANOVER...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. ...WINDS... SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ARE SPREADING NORTH FROM PENDER COUNTY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY IS REPORTING SUSTAIN WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH 12 FOOT SEAS. THE BUOY AT ONSLOW BAY REPORTS WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH 17 FOOT SEAS. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER ...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOODING HAS CAUSED ROAD CLOSURES IN NEW HANOVER...COLUMBUS...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 10 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE HEADWATERS. PILING OF WATER UP THE CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE TRIBUTARIES IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WALDEN CREEK AND TOWN CREEK AND ALSO UP THE LOCKWOOD FOLLY RIVER AND THE ROYAL OAK SWAMP. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WAS ABOUT 6 TO 8 FT ALONG THE BEACHES OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER AND WILL START TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MINOR BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 6 AM. $$ MAC ** WTUS82 KMHX 010639 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103 -104-010930- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 238 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION...HAS BEEN UPDATED. RAINFALL AND WIND AND STORM SURGE INFORMATION HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...DARE...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL... WASHINGTON...PAMLICO...MARTIN...PITT...LENOIR...GREENE...JONES...AND DUPLIN. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON...AT LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR WHICHARDS BEACH ROAD AND LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUFORT COUNTY INCLUDING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THE CITY OF WASHINGTON. ONE SHELTER IS OPEN IN WASHINGTON AT NEW PS JONES MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 4105 NORTH MARKET STREET EXTENSION. FOR CARTERET COUNTY...ONE SHELTER IS OPEN IN NEWPORT AT NEWPORT MIDDLE SCHOOL. FOR ONSLOW COUNTY...TWO SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN JACKSONVILLE. ONE AT DIXON MIDDLE SCHOOL AT DIXON SCHOOL ROAD...AND ONE AT JACKSONVILLE MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 315 COMMONS DRIVE SOUTH. THE EMERGENCY PET SHELTER IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE RED CROSS SHELTER AT JACKSONVILLE COMMONS MIDDLE SCHOOL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTY COAST LINE ARE AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. IN GENERAL A 3 TO 5 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AS FAR INLAND AS NEW BERN AND WASHINGTON. IN ONSLOW COUNTY A STORM SURGE OF 5 FEET IS EXPECTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND. OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE WATER LEVELS 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INCLUDING THE PORTION OF DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER AND EXTREME EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY. SURGES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES...AND SOUNDSIDE SOUTHERN HYDE COUNTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS COASTAL ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES. ONSLOW BEACH HAD A GUST TO 58 MPH AND A WIND GUST OF 70 MPH WAS REPORTED AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE BUOY 5 MILES EAST OF NEW RIVER. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH OF ERNESTO...WHERE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WEAK TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM EDT. $$ BANDY ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 21.3N 163.5E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 22.9N 158.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 24.9N 152.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 26.7N 148.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 21.3N 163.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 030600UTC 24.9N 152.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 040600UTC 26.7N 148.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 21.4N 163.5E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.2N 158.3E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 24.9N 153.0E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 27.2N 148.2E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 21.3N 163.5E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 23.2N 158.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 25.1N 153.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 72HR POSITION 040600UTC 27.1N 149.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 101KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 050 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 163.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 163.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.3N 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.3N 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.2N 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.0N 153.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.9N 149.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.7N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.0N 142.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 163.0E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH- WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPZ22 KNHC 010848 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL ** WTPZ21 KNHC 010849 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO RECOMMENDED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS RECOMMENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARDTO MULEGE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 108.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 108.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.3N 116.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 26.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT25 KNHC 010850 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 77.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 77.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.7N 77.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.6N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 42.7N 79.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 77.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT35 KNHC 010850 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINSTON NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...35.1 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT45 KNHC 010857 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 WSR-88D DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING STEADILY INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 010/13. THE REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS NORTH OF THE CENTER AND ALREADY EXTENDS INTO VIRGINIA...BUT RECENT VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT 50 KT WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OCEAN...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATING ERNESTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 12 MORE HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 35.1N 77.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 36.7N 77.4W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0600Z 38.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.1W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0600Z 42.7N 79.2W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ42 KNHC 010859 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0109Z LOCATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY SOUTH OF 19N SO THE PREVIOUS TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE CLOUD MASS IS ALSO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. WHILE SHEARING IS NOT EVIDENT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING DEFORMED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. KRISTY HAS APPARENTLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT AS A RESULT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 65 KT WITH T-NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS. A NORTHWEST MOTION CONTINUES AT 310/6. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AHEAD OF HURRICANE JOHN WILL TEND TO PUSH KRISTY SOUTHWESTWARD...IF IT MANAGES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CIRCULATION...WHICH IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY. THE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER 36-48 HOURS AND LACKING MUCH OF A CONSENSUS IN THE FORECAST AIDS WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST TRACK VERY SLOW IN THE DAY 3-5 TIME FRAME. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AT LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE WEAKENING TREND NOW OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO CONTINUE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 19.3N 118.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 20.2N 120.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 20.2N 120.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL ** WTPZ31 KNHC 010900 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...JOHN RESTRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY THREE... ...MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO RECOMMENDED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS RECOMMENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES ...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...WEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOHN LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ41 KNHC 010910 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN WHICH HAD DEGRADED EARLIER IN THE EVENING...HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ONCE AGAIN. AN EYE IS NOW DISCERNIBLE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON THE LOS CABOS RADAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN CONTRACTING ON THE RADAR IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 KT FROM AFWA... 102 KT FROM SAB...TO 115 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 100 KT. AN UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF JOHN LATER THIS MORNING. JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OR WEST OF TRACK DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A LONGER TERM 12-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/11 KT AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY. DESPITE THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD TRENDS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW JOHN MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD IS ADJUSTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO JOHN REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING. JOHN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SSTS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.7N 108.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 110.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W 100 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 24.8N 112.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 114.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 26.3N 116.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 26.8N 119.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT85 KNHC 010912 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-SCC043-051-011500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-011500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ NCC031-129-133-141-011500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-011500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC031-055-095-129-133-141-011500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-158-250-011500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ NCC013-029-049-053-137-139-143-177-187-011500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ AMZ130-135-011500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...AKQ... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 010914 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 31 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...ERNESTO DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE PERO SIGUE PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LLUVIAS FUERTES... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. Y EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE FEAR EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE CAPE FEAR EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE GALERNA PARA LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y LA BAHIA DE CHESAPEAKE AL NORTE DEL AREA DEL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBIDO AL FUERTE GRADIENTE DE PRESION AL NORTE DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.8 OESTE...O EN TIERRA CERCA DE 20 MILLAS...30 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE KINSTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE...Y COMO A 150 MILLAS...240 KM...AL SUROESTE DE NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...25 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO SOBRE TIERRA SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA MANANA Y SOBRE EL ESTE VIRIGNIA MAS TARDE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE TIERRA ADENTRO HOY. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE REPORTARON UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EN EL CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS HASTA EL DOMINGO...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS ES POSIBLE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA EL VIERNES EN LA TARDE. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA HASTA ESTA MANANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...35.1 NORTE...77.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTNT45 KNHC 010918 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...CORRECTED DESCRIPTION OF WHEN SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... WSR-88D DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING STEADILY INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 010/13. THE REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS NORTH OF THE CENTER AND ALREADY EXTENDS INTO VIRGINIA...BUT RECENT VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT 50 KT WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OCEAN...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATING ERNESTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 12 MORE HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL TOMORROW AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 35.1N 77.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 36.7N 77.4W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0600Z 38.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.1W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0600Z 42.7N 79.2W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTUS82 KMHX 010935 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103 -104-011230- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 535 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED. STORM INFORMATION...HAS BEEN UPDATED. RAINFALL AND WIND AND STORM SURGE INFORMATION HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...DARE...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL... WASHINGTON...PAMLICO...MARTIN...PITT...LENOIR...GREENE...JONES...AND DUPLIN. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINSTON. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS WILL BE FALLING THIS MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTY COAST LINE WERE RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS WERE GENERALLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. CAPE HATTERAS REPORTED A GUST OF 51 MPH AT 5 AM THIS MORNING. INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 11 AM. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. SEVERAL WEAK TORNADOES OCCURRED LAST NIGHT IN ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTUIES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH TODAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM EDT. $$ TK ** WTPN31 PHNC 011000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010935SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 108.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 108.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.8N 110.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.9N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.8N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 25.4N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.3N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.8N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 27.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 011000Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 109.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 010940 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...CORRECTED DESCRIPTION OF STORM MOTION... ...ERNESTO WEAKENING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINSTON NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...35.1 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPN32 PHNC 011000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010930SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 010 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 12E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 118.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 118.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 19.6N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 20.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.2N 120.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.2N 120.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 19.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 19.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011000Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 118.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010945 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST FRI SEP 1 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 163.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. 610 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 150 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...21.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 163.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SATURDAY AT 2 AM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 21.5N 163.0E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 23.5N 157.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 21.5N 163.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 23.5N 157.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 030600UTC 24.9N 152.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 040600UTC 26.7N 148.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 010948 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 31...CORREGIDO NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...CORREGIDO POR LA DESCRIPCION DEL MOVIMIENTO DE LA TORMENTA... ...ERNESTO DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE PERO SIGUE PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LLUVIAS FUERTES... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. Y EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE FEAR EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE CAPE FEAR EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE GALERNA PARA LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y LA BAHIA DE CHESAPEAKE AL NORTE DEL AREA DEL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBIDO AL FUERTE GRADIENTE DE PRESION AL NORTE DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.8 OESTE...O EN TIERRA CERCA DE 20 MILLAS...30 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE KINSTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE...Y COMO A 150 MILLAS...240 KM...AL SUROESTE DE NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...25 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO SOBRE TIERRA SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA MANANA Y SOBRE EL ESTE VIRIGNIA MAS TARDE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE TIERRA ADENTRO HOY. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE REPORTARON UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EN EL CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS HASTA EL DOMINGO...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS ES POSIBLE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA EL VIERNES EN LA TARDE. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA HASTA ESTA MANANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...35.1 NORTE...77.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTUS82 KILM 011032 RRA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-014045- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 630 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION HAS BEE UPDATED. STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...INCLUDING NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF WILMINGTON. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... WATER LEVELS IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL. AS ERNESTO CROSSED THE AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT...SURGE LEVELS EXCEEDED TIDES BY AROUND 3 FT AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...1 FOOT AT SUNSET BEACH...AND LESS THAN 1 FOOT AT MYRTLE BEACH. ...WINDS... OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ON THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 45MPH...DIMINISHING FROM GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS WERE GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS ERNESTO MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH. ...INLAND FLOODING... RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 10 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...AND 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER PENDER...BRUNSWICK AND EASTERN HORRY AND EASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. RAINFALL WAS 2 TO 4 INCHES FURTHER INLAND AND IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BECOMING ISOLATED BY MID DAY. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT THE IN BLADEN COUNTY ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST LATER TODAY ON THE NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR RIVER AT BURGAW. THE GREAT PEE DEE RIVER AT PEE DEE IS FORECAST TO FLOOD MONDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 9 AM. $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 011145 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...ERNESTO STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SURF CITY SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...35.8 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 011147 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 ...POWERFUL JOHN HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES ...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM...WEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO. JOHN HAS SLOWED OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE DANGEROUS CORE OF HURRICANE JOHN WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTCA45 TJSJ 011154 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 31A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LLUVIAS FUERTES... A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...EL AVIOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SURF CITY HACIA EL SUR HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE SUFR CITY EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE GALERNA PARA LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y LA BAHIA DE CHESAPEAKE AL NORTE DEL AREA DEL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBIDO AL FUERTE GRADIENTE DE PRESION AL NORTE DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.6 OESTE. ESTA POSICION ES JUSOT AL ESTE SURESTE DE ROCKY MOUNT EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KM...AL SUROESTE DE NORFOLK VIRGINIA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE CONTINUE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO SOBRE TIERRA SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA MANANA Y SOBRE EL ESTE VIRGINIA MAS TARDE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...80 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE TIERRA ADENTRO HOY. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE REPORTARON UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EN EL CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS HASTA EL DOMINGO...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS ES POSIBLE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA EL VIERNES EN LA TARDE. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA HASTA ESTA MANANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM EDT...35.8 NORTE...77.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA