** WTSR20 WSSS 311800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 010017 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 29A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO PERMANECE JUSTO POR DEBAJO DE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN... BANDAS DE LLUVIA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LA COSTA DE LAS CAROLINAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL SUR DEL RIO SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 6 A 12 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.3 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...29 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO CRUZARA LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE. DATOS DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AUNQUE SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA...CUALQUIER FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS TRAERIA A ERNESTO A LA COSTA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESTAN EXTENDIENDO HACIA LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE CERCA DE CAPE FEAR. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 988 MB...29.18 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EN EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...HASTA EL SABADO. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...33.2 NORTE...78.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...988 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 20.7N 164.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 22.1N 160.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 030000UTC 23.9N 154.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 040000UTC 25.8N 149.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 20.7N 164.5E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 22.1N 160.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 23.9N 154.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 25.8N 149.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KCHS 010049 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-010300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 845 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...NEW INFORMATION... CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ALL SECTIONS BELOW BASED ON THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...AND ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS ERNESTO REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IT STILL MAY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT WHILE DRIVING ON AREA ROADS THIS EVENING AS SOME ROADS MAY STILL BE FLOODED ESPECIALLY IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... NO STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ...WINDS... WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WHILE SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE. IN BERKELEY COUNTY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE. ...INLAND FLOODING... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS RISK OF ANY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE REMAINS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION ON HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ PY ** WTUS82 KCHS 010052 CCA *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-010300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 845 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 CORRECTED TORNADO SECTION ...ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...NEW INFORMATION... CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ALL SECTIONS BELOW BASED ON THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...AND ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS ERNESTO REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IT STILL MAY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT WHILE DRIVING ON AREA ROADS THIS EVENING AS SOME ROADS MAY STILL BE FLOODED ESPECIALLY IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... NO STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ...WINDS... WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WHILE SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN END OF CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE. IN BERKELEY COUNTY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE. ...INLAND FLOODING... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS NO RISK OF TORNADOES THIS EVENING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE REMAINS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION ON HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ PY ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 20.7N 164.5E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.3N 159.5E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 23.9N 153.7E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 25.9N 148.9E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTUS82 KILM 010057 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-010515- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 915 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINAS...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEARS THE COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST BEFORE 11 PM. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW AS THE WEATHER DETERIORATES FURTHER. PREPARE FOR HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLE FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARS THE COAST...MAXIMUM WIND STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE WHICH HAS JUST OCCURRED. THE SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SALT WATER FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...HORRY...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...AND MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH TO AROUND 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING SUNNY POINT...THE WATER FRONT AT SOUTHPORT AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH ALONG THE BRUNSWICK AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY IS REPORTING SUSTAIN WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 57 MPH WITH 15 FOOT SEAS. ...INLAND FLOODING... AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE CAUSED FLOODING AND SOME ROAD CLOSURES IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 7 TO 9 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN HORRY COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. PILING OF WATER UP THE CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE TRIBUTARIES IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WALDEN CREEK AND TOWN CREEK AND ALSO UP THE LOCKWOOD FOLLY RIVER AND THE ROYAL OAK SWAMP. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FT ALONG THE BEACHES OF CAPE FEAR...AND 6 TO 8 FT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MAC ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS82 KMHX 010107 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103 -104-010330- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 900 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM AND SURGE INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES. SURGE UPDATED TO INCLUDE 1 TO 2 FOOT SURGE FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES...AND SOUNDSIDE SOUTHERN HYDE COUNTY. A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...DARE...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL... WASHINGTON...PAMLICO...MARTIN...PITT...LENOIR...GREENE...JONES...AND DUPLIN. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE FEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT. ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED. FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR WHICHARDS BEACH ROAD AND LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUFORT COUNTY INCLUDING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THE CITY OF WASHINGTON. ONE SHELTER WILL BE OPEN IN WASHINGTON AT NEW PS JONES MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 4105 NORTH MARKET STREET EXTENSION. FOR HYDE COUNTY...THE OCRACOKE CONTROL GROUP IS RECOMMENDING SHELTERING IN PLACE. FOR CARTERET COUNTY...ONE SHELTER IS OPEN IN NEWPORT AT NEWPORT MIDDLE SCHOOL. FOR ONSLOW COUNTY...TWO SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN JACKSONVILLE. ONE AT DIXON MIDDLE SCHOOL AT DIXON SCHOOL ROAD...AND ONE AT JACKSONVILLE MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 315 COMMONS DRIVE SOUTH. THE EMERGENCY PET SHELTER IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE RED CROSS SHELTER AT JACKSONVILLE COMMONS MIDDLE SCHOOL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTY COAST LINE ARE 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. IN GENERAL A 3 TO 5 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 1 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...NEAR THE NORMAL TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AS FAR INLAND AS NEW BERN AND WASHINGTON. IN ONSLOW COUNTY A STORM SURGE OF 5 FEET IS EXPECTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND. OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE WATER LEVELS 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INCLUDING THE PORTION OF DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER AND EXTREME EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY. SURGES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES...AND SOUNDSIDE SOUTHERN HYDE COUNTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM 40 TO 50 MPH AT CAPE LOOKOUT DURING THE PAST HOUR. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH OF ERNESTO...WHERE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS COASTAL AND ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES COUNTIES FROM ONSLOW TO SOUTHERN DARE DARE COUNTIES WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REPORTED. FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING AT STACY IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT. $$ COLE ** WTNT35 KNHC 010235 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST...OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST JUST WEST OF CAPE FEAR. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 25 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SIX-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT25 KNHC 010236 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 125SE 60SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.7N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.6N 77.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.4N 77.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 41.7N 78.4W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 78.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 010237 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 107.8W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 107.8W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.4N 110.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.8N 113.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTUS82 KCHS 010244 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-010500- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1045 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED TO REMOVE ALL WARNINGS FOR THE AREA. REMOVED MOST OTHER HAZARD INFORMATION. ADDED INFORMATION ABOUT CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SCHEDULE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND POINTS SOUTH HAVE BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 11 PM ADVISORY. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST...OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST JUST WEST OF CAPE FEAR. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT WHILE DRIVING ON AREA ROADS THIS EVENING AS SOME ROADS MAY STILL BE FLOODED ESPECIALLY IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL REOPEN FOR LIMITED FLIGHTS AT 7 AM FRIDAY. LIMITED FLIGHTS WILL BE DEPARTING FROM 8 AM UNTIL NOON...AFTER WHICH THE AIRPORT WILL RESUME THEIR NORMAL SCHEDULE. CHECK WITH YOUR AIRLINE REGARDING YOUR FLIGHT SCHEDULE PRIOR TO ARRIVING AT THE AIRPORT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... NO STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ...WINDS... WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS PULLED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS NO RISK OF TORNADOES TONIGHT. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. A MODERATE RISK MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT STRONGER OR MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS. ONLY EXPERIENCED SURF SWIMMERS SHOULD ENTER THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WITH THE ONSET OF OFFSHORE WINDS...NO FURTHER BEACH EROSION IS ANTICIPATED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ LAMB ** WTNT85 KNHC 010243 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ SCC019-010900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ AMZ330-350-010900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W $$ NCC019-031-055-095-129-133-141-SCC043-051-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-158-250-252-254-256-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ NCC013-029-049-053-137-139-143-177-187-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ AMZ130-135-010900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...AKQ...ILM... ** WTPZ31 KNHC 010248 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...JOHN STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...HEADING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...WEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. COASTAL STROM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...107.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 010253 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING. LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR ANIMATION INDICATES THE EXISTENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT JOHN HAS OUT RUN THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE AND NOW HAS MOVED WITHIN 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...JOHN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/11. JOHN REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CLUSTER INTO TWO GROUPS. THE GFDL...NAVY GFDN...AND GFS INDICATE A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE UKMET ALL SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS HEDGED CLOSELY TO A CONSENSUS OF THE SECOND DYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTER...WHICH INDICATES A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3. BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.4N 107.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 110.3W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.2N 111.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 24.8N 113.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 26.0N 119.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 26.0N 124.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 010255 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 117.8W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 55NE 55SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 117.8W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA ** WTNT45 KNHC 010256 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS 70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48-72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/16. ERNESTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION. THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 33.9N 78.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 35.7N 77.3W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0000Z 37.6N 77.2W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1200Z 39.4N 77.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0000Z 41.7N 78.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 010259 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 TWO AFTERNOON MICROWAVE PASSES...ONE FROM 1757Z AND THE OTHER FROM 2057Z...REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER IN THE DAY...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF AN APPARENT EYE. DESPITE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...KRISTYS OVERALL APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER AMORPHOUS. DESPITE ITS RAGGED PRESENTATION...KRISTY IS RETAINED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT KRISTY MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LONGER-TERM EXAMINATION OF THE RECENT FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 315/7. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS KRISTY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING SOME MODELS TO EVEN SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE. OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...FAVOR A FUJIWARA INTERACTION...WHEREBY KRISTY IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY HURRICANE JOHN. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE THE MOTION FROM THESE MODELS IS INCORRECT AT THE INITIAL TIME. THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...GIVEN THESE TWO DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES. AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY HAS LIKELY PEAKED. INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN...NOT TO MENTION COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE RAPID THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 19.3N 117.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA ** WTPN31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 049 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 164.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 164.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 21.5N 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.4N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.3N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.2N 154.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.9N 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.7N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 30.3N 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 164.0E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTCA45 TJSJ 010312 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO CERCANO A ENTRAR A TIERRA EN LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE CERCA DE CAPE FEAR... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA DESCONTINUADO DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL SUR. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE GALERNA PARA LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y LA BAHIA DE CHESAPEAKE AL NORTE DEL AREA DEL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBIDO AL FUERTE GRADIENTE DE PRESION AL NORTE DE ERNESTO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 6 A 12 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.2 OESTE...O CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE JUSTO AL OESTE DE CAPE FEAR. ESTA POSICION TAMBIEN ESTA COMO A 25 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO SOBRE TIERRA SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE EL RESTO DE ESTA NOCHE Y EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA ESTACION DEL SERVICIO OCEANICO NACIONAL EN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH CAROLINA DEL NORTE RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UN VIENTO PROMEDIO EN SEIS MINUTOS DE 55 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 67 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA QUE ACABA DE REPORTAR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 988 MB...29.18 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. ACTUALMENTE LAS MAREAS ESTAN UNOS 3 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL EN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EN EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS HASTA EL SABADO...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA HASTA EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...33.9 NORTE...78.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...988 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTUS82 KMHX 010317 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103 -104-010630- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1115 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...DARE...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL... WASHINGTON...PAMLICO...MARTIN...PITT...LENOIR...GREENE...JONES...AND DUPLIN. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA AT LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO WILL MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE MIDNIGHT NEAR CAPE FEAR. ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR WHICHARDS BEACH ROAD AND LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUFORT COUNTY INCLUDING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THE CITY OF WASHINGTON. ONE SHELTER IS OPEN IN WASHINGTON AT NEW PS JONES MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 4105 NORTH MARKET STREET EXTENSION. FOR CARTERET COUNTY...ONE SHELTER IS OPEN IN NEWPORT AT NEWPORT MIDDLE SCHOOL. FOR ONSLOW COUNTY...TWO SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN JACKSONVILLE. ONE AT DIXON MIDDLE SCHOOL AT DIXON SCHOOL ROAD...AND ONE AT JACKSONVILLE MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 315 COMMONS DRIVE SOUTH. THE EMERGENCY PET SHELTER IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE RED CROSS SHELTER AT JACKSONVILLE COMMONS MIDDLE SCHOOL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTY COAST LINE ARE 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. IN GENERAL A 3 TO 5 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...NEAR THE NORMAL TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AS FAR INLAND AS NEW BERN AND WASHINGTON. IN ONSLOW COUNTY A STORM SURGE OF 5 FEET IS EXPECTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND. OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE WATER LEVELS 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INCLUDING THE PORTION OF DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER AND EXTREME EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY. SURGES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES...AND SOUNDSIDE SOUTHERN HYDE COUNTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS COASTAL ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN AT CAPE LOOKOUT DURING THE LATE EVENING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH OF ERNESTO...WHERE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS COASTAL AND ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES COUNTIES FROM ONSLOW TO SOUTHERN DARE DARE COUNTIES WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REPORTED. FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WEAK TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM EDT. $$ COLE ** WTNT65 KNHC 010335 *** TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1140 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA... DATA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN WILMINGTON INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA AT 1130 PM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTJP31 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 21.0N 164.0E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 22.6N 159.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 21.0N 164.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 22.6N 159.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 030000UTC 23.9N 154.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 040000UTC 25.8N 149.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 010400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010330SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 117.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 117.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.8N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.4N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.6N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.6N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 20.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010400Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 118.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 010400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010335SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 21.4N 107.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 107.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.4N 108.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.4N 110.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 24.2N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.8N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 26.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 010400Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 108.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010406 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST FRI SEP 1 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE MOVING AWAY FROM WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 150 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 164.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTUS82 KILM 010436 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-010915- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1230 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL AT LONG BEACH IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 12 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AT LONG BEACH AT 11:30 PM. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES INLAND THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH HIGH TIDE COMING UP AND TIDES RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THE WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST. SALT WATER FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG HORRY COUNTY AND MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG NEW HANOVER...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH TO AROUND 70 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING SUNNY POINT...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND SURF CITY. OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM 35 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO PENDER COUNTY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY IS REPORTING SUSTAIN WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH 19 FOOT SEAS. ...INLAND FLOODING... AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...BLADEN AND HORRY COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOODING HAS CAUSED ROAD CLOSURES IN NEW HANOVER... COLUMBUS...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 10 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN HORRY COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE AS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE HEADWATERS. PILING OF WATER UP THE CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE TRIBUTARIES IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WALDEN CREEK AND TOWN CREEK AND ALSO UP THE LOCKWOOD FOLLY RIVER AND THE ROYAL OAK SWAMP. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES ARE ONLY A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF HAS BUILT AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FT ALONG THE BEACHES OF CAPE FEAR...AND 6 TO 8 FT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES AND WILL START TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MAC ** WTUS82 KILM 010436 RRA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-010915- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1230 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL AT LONG BEACH IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 12 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AT LONG BEACH AT 11:30 PM. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES INLAND THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH HIGH TIDE COMING UP AND TIDES RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THE WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST. SALT WATER FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG HORRY COUNTY AND MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG NEW HANOVER...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH TO AROUND 70 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING SUNNY POINT...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND SURF CITY. OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM 35 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INTO PENDER COUNTY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY IS REPORTING SUSTAIN WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH 19 FOOT SEAS. ...INLAND FLOODING... AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER...COLUMBUS...BLADEN AND HORRY COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOODING HAS CAUSED ROAD CLOSURES IN NEW HANOVER... COLUMBUS...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 10 TO 12 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN HORRY COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE AS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE HEADWATERS. PILING OF WATER UP THE CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE TRIBUTARIES IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WALDEN CREEK AND TOWN CREEK AND ALSO UP THE LOCKWOOD FOLLY RIVER AND THE ROYAL OAK SWAMP. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES ARE ONLY A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF HAS BUILT AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FT ALONG THE BEACHES OF CAPE FEAR...AND 6 TO 8 FT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES AND WILL START TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 3 AM. $$ MAC ** WTNT80 EGRR 010506 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 78.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.3N 78.4W STRONG 12UTC 01.09.2006 35.7N 76.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2006 36.4N 76.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 37.5N 77.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 106.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2006 21.1N 106.6W STRONG 12UTC 01.09.2006 22.0N 109.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 23.5N 110.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 24.0N 111.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 25.0N 111.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 25.7N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 26.4N 113.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 26.8N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 117.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2006 18.6N 117.4W MODERATE 12UTC 01.09.2006 19.6N 118.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2006 20.1N 119.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 20.4N 120.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 20.0N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 19.6N 120.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.3N 33.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 11.8N 33.8W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2006 12.1N 35.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 11.5N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 12.3N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 13.5N 41.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 15.1N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 17.2N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 18.3N 48.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 19.3N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 18.9N 52.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 20.1N 54.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2006 21.5N 57.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010506 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 010545 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...JOHN HEADING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...WARNINGS ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO DISCONTINUED... AT 11 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...WEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...21.5 N...108.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB