** WTCA45 TJSJ 311802 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 28A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE ACERCA A INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE EL RIO SAVANNAH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL SUR DEL RIO SANTEE HACIA EL SUR DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASI DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.1 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS...285 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 90 MILLAS...145 KM...AL SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LAS COSTAS DE LAS CAROLINAS HOY. DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO NOAA P-3 INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ERNESTO PODRIAN OBTENER UN POCO MAS DE POTENCIA Y LLEGAR A LA COSTA COMO UN HURACAN. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTR. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION P-3 DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA ERA DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL SUR DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...HASTA EL SABADO. ESTAS CANTIDADES PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE TARDE ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...31.9 NORTE...79.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR-NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 311800 UTC 00HR 20.2N 165.4E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.2N 161.6E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 23.8N 156.2E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 25.8N 151.0E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTUS82 KCHS 311828 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-312300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 230 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON... ...NEW INFORMATION... CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FOLLOWING...WATCHES/WARNINGS...STORM INFORMATION...WINDS...INLAND FLOODING...TORNADOES AND THE TIME OF THE NEXT UPDATE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF MCCLELLANVILLE. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AREAS NORTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. AT ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS ABOUT 50 TO 60 MILES EAST OF THE CHARLESTON METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND 5 PM...AND THE CENTER WILL PASS ABOUT 30 TO 40 MILES EAST OF THE CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS AROUND 6 OR 7 PM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO CERTAINLY COULD STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THIS EVENING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OPERATIONS AND THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL REMAIN CLOSED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN THE HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...RESULTING IN STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE LEVELS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS AROUND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE SAVANNAH AREA THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP STORM SURGE VALUES AT 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS IN PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 OR 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY FROM THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA TO NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE. IN BERKELEY COUNTY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE AND OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MOULTRIE MAY CAUSE SOME DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE. IN DORCHESTER COUNTY WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SUMMERVILLE AREA. IN BEAUFORT...COASTAL COLLETON AND JASPER COUNTY WINDS WILL REACH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WINDS ACROSS INLAND COLLETON COUNTY WILL BE MAINLY 20 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ACROSS THE GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. PLEASE BE AWARE THAT BRIDGE ACCESS POINTS MAY BE CLOSED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ROAD CLOSURES. IF YOU MUST BE DRIVING...PLEASE BE SURE THAT YOU HAVE ACCESS TO A PARTICULAR ROAD BEFORE LEAVING FOR YOUR DESTINATION. ...TORNADOES... THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A CHARLESTON TO MONCKS CORNER LINE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTJP21 RJTD 311800 *** WARNING 311800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 20.2N 165.4E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 21.7N 160.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 23.5N 155.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 25.8N 150.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 311800UTC 20.2N 165.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 21.7N 160.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 021800UTC 23.5N 155.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 031800UTC 25.8N 150.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 311800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 311800UTC 20.2N 165.4E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 011800UTC 21.9N 160.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 48HR POSITION 021800UTC 23.8N 155.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 72HR POSITION 031800UTC 25.9N 150.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 101KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT85 KNHC 311913 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-312100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-312100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC019-031-055-095-129-133-141-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053- 312100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-158-250-252-254-256-330-350-352-312100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ NCC013-029-049-053-137-139-143-177-187-312100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ AMZ130-135-312100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...AKQ...ILM... ** WTUS82 KILM 311917 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-312315- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 315 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. STORM SURGE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH GEORGETOWN THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ERNESTO HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES FURTHER. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND PREPARE FOR HEAVY RAIN. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... HIGH TIDE WAS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM...AND WATER LEVELS WERE LESS THAN 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES... MAXIMUM WIND STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THE SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SALT WATER FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...AND MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE NORTHERN HORRY AND BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY COUNTY REPORTED WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH...AND ELSEWHERE GUSTS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS WERE 20 TO 30 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST AND ACROSS HORRY COUNTY...SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH...MAINLY IN COLUMBUS...BLADEN...PENDER AND NEW HANOVER...AND POTENTIALLY GUSTS HIGHER THAN 60 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE CAUSED WIDESPREAD PONDING AND SOME ROAD CLOSURES IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...AND PONDING WAS REPORTED IN COLUMBUS COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 5 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD..ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY TONIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 6 PM. $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 311929 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103 -104-312130- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 325 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... NEW EVACUATION AND SHELTER INFORMATION FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY. RECOMMENDATIONS FROM HYDE COUNTY. STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR WHICHARDS BEACH ROAD AND LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUFORT COUNTY INCLUDING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THE CITY WASHINGTON. ONE SHELTER WILL BE OPEN IN WASHINGTON AT NEW PS JONES MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 4105 NORTH MARKET STREET EXTENSION. FOR HYDE COUNTY...THE OCRACOKE CONTROL GROUP IS RECOMMENDING SHELTERING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ANY PERSON WITH SERIOUS MEDICAL CONDITION SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING THE ISLAND. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...DARE...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL... WASHINGTON...PAMLICO...MARTIN...PITT...LENOIR...GREENE...JONES...AND DUPLIN. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS EVENING. DATA FROM A AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN GENERAL A 3 TO 5 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 1 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...NEAR THE NORMAL TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AS FAR INLAND AS NEW BERN AND WASHINGTON. IN ONSLOW COUNTY A STORM SURGE OF 5 FEET IS EXPECTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND. OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE WATER LEVELS 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INCLUDE THE PORTION OF DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER AND EXTREME EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF ERNESTO...WHERE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 10 TO 14 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT. $$ JC/TK ** WTNT25 KNHC 312034 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 50SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 41.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 312034 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TONIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE SOON... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...ERNESTO COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N...78.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 312034 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.2W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.2W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 120.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 312034 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A NICE EYEWALL FEATURE...ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS STILL NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATIONS TONIGHT BEFORE COOLER WATERS...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...AND APPROACHING EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BUILDS THE RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF JOHN...FORCING KRISTY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOON-LIKE FLOW...OR EVEN EASTWARD AGAIN IF IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN. IN WHAT SHOULD BE A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE TRACK OF KRISTY WILL TURN LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT CAN MAINTAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT KRISTY WILL BE A VERY WEAK SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AND WOULD THEN BEGIN A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.4N 117.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 19.7N 119.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 119.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 120.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 312036 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SAN EVERISTO ON THE EAST COAST...AND NORTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.0W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.0W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.5N 110.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTNT45 KNHC 312038 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 EXTENSIVE RECONNAISSANCE WITH BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE 60 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION SHOW A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT WITH 60 KNOTS. ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 32.6N 78.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.0W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1800Z 37.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1800Z 41.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 312041 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT JOHN IS WEAKER THAN EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB WITH A 20 KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE ACTUAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE LOWER. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT FROM A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL. ASIDE FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OBSERVED YESTERDAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY JOHN HAS WEAKENED SO MUCH. PERHAPS IT WAS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH JOHN HAS WEAKENED...IT STILL HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONCE JOHN STARTS MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT SHOULD BEGIN TRAVERSING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEADILY WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH SOME POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE SMALLER HURRICANE...KRISTY...LOCATED SOME 600 MILES TO ITS WEST. NOW THAT THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT... THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE JOHN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND THEN TAKES JOHN ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 20.7N 107.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 110.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 24.1N 112.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 312052 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...JOHN WEAKENS SOME...BUT IS STILL HEADED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SAN EVERISTO ON THE EAST COAST...AND NORTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 240 MILES... 385 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. REPORTS AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE JOHN REACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.7 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTNT85 KNHC 312054 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO SCC013-029-053-010300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W $$ AMZ352-010300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W $$ NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-010300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-010300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC019-031-055-095-129-133-141-SCC019-043-051-010300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-158-250-252-254-256-330-350-010300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ NCC013-029-049-053-137-139-143-177-187-010300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ AMZ130-135-010300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...AKQ...ILM... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 312058 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...SE ESPERA QUE ERNESTO LLEGUE A LA COSTA ESTA NOCHE...LAS CONDICIONES ATMOSFERICAS DEBEN DETERIORARSE PRONTO... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HA DESCONTINUADO DESDE EDISTO BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL SUR. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE EDISTO BEACH HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL SUR DEL RIO SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASI DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 6 A 12 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.7 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 75 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS... AL ESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO CRUZARA LA COSTA ESTA NOCHE. DATOS DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SIN EMBARGO...ERNESTO PUDIERA LLEGAR A LA COSTA COMO UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EN EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...HASTA EL SABADO. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...32.6 NORTE...78.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTUS82 KCHS 312137 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-010100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 537 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO SLOWLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ALL SECTIONS BELOW. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM. IN ADDITION THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS OUT 60 NM. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR DORCHESTER COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCLELLANVILLE. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH NORTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS ERNESTO REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IT STILL MAY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAVY RAINS...A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER CHARLESTON OR BERKELEY COUNTIES. REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING OCCURS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ALTHOUGH TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...NO STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ...WINDS... IN CHARLESTON COUNTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REACH BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE. IN BERKELEY COUNTY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE. ...INLAND FLOODING... AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING...AND AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS NO LONGER A RISK OF ANY TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA FROM ERNESTO. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE REMAINS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION ON HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTPQ31 PGUM 312139 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST FRI SEP 1 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE MOVING AWAY FROM WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 145 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 155 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 164.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 312100 *** WARNING 312100. WARNING VALID 012100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 20.5N 164.9E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 21.9N 160.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 312100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 312100UTC 20.5N 164.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 012100UTC 21.9N 160.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 021800UTC 23.5N 155.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 031800UTC 25.8N 150.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTUS82 KCHS 312148 CCA *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-010100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 537 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 CORRECTED WINDS SECTION ...ERNESTO SLOWLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ALL SECTIONS BELOW. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM. IN ADDITION THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS OUT 60 NM. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR DORCHESTER COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCLELLANVILLE. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH NORTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS ERNESTO REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IT STILL MAY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAVY RAINS...A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER CHARLESTON OR BERKELEY COUNTIES. REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING OCCURS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ALTHOUGH TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...NO STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ...WINDS... IN CHARLESTON COUNTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REACH BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE. IN BERKELEY COUNTY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE. IN COLLETON COUNTY THERE STILL MAY A FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ON EDISTO BEACH THIS EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING...AND AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS NO LONGER A RISK OF ANY TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA FROM ERNESTO. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE REMAINS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION ON HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTUS82 KMHX 312149 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103 -104-010030- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 545 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... NEW SHELTER INFORMATION FOR CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES. STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. FOR CARTERET COUNTY...ONE SHELTER WILL BE OPEN IN NEWPORT BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...AT NEWPORT MIDDLE SCHOOL. FOR ONSLOW COUNTY...TWO SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN JACKSONVILLE. ONE AT DIXON MIDDLE SCHOOL AT DIXON SCHOOL ROAD...AND ONE AT JACKSONVILLE MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 315 COMMONS DRIVE SOUTH. THE EMERGENCY PET SHELTER IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE RED CROSS SHELTER AT JACKSONVILLE COMMONS MIDDLE SCHOOL. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...DARE...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL... WASHINGTON...PAMLICO...MARTIN...PITT...LENOIR...GREENE...JONES...AND DUPLIN. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING. ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED. FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR WHICHARDS BEACH ROAD AND LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUFORT COUNTY INCLUDING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THE CITY WASHINGTON. ONE SHELTER WILL BE OPEN IN WASHINGTON AT NEW PS JONES MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 4105 NORTH MARKET STREET EXTENSION. FOR HYDE COUNTY...THE OCRACOKE CONTROL GROUP IS RECOMMENDING SHELTERING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ANY PERSON WITH SERIOUS MEDICAL CONDITION SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING THE ISLAND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN GENERAL A 3 TO 5 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 1 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...NEAR THE NORMAL TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AS FAR INLAND AS NEW BERN AND WASHINGTON. IN ONSLOW COUNTY A STORM SURGE OF 5 FEET IS EXPECTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND. OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE WATER LEVELS 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INCLUDE THE PORTION OF DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER AND EXTREME EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF ERNESTO...WHERE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 10 TO 14 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM EDT. $$ JC ** WTUS82 KCHS 312157 CCC *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-010100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 537 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS AND WINDS SECTIONS ...ERNESTO SLOWLY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ALL SECTIONS BELOW. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM. IN ADDITION THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS OUT 60 NM. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR DORCHESTER COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCLELLANVILLE. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH NORTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS ERNESTO REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IT STILL MAY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAVY RAINS...A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER CHARLESTON OR BERKELEY COUNTIES. REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING OCCURS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ALTHOUGH TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...NO STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ...WINDS... IN CHARLESTON COUNTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REACH BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE. IN BERKELEY COUNTY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE. ...INLAND FLOODING... AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING...AND AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS NO LONGER A RISK OF ANY TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA FROM ERNESTO. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE REMAINS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED MINOR BEACH EROSION ON HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTUS82 KILM 312228 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-010215- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 627 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO APPROACHING - CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES FURTHER. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND PREPARE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES... MAXIMUM WIND STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THE SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SALT WATER FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...HORRY...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...AND MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING THE MYRTLE BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...SOUTHPORT AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH ALONG THE BRUNSWICK AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE CAUSED FLOODING AND SOME ROAD CLOSURES IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWED AREAS OF 6 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN NEW HANOVER AND NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FT ALONG THE BEACHES OF CAPE FEAR...AND 6 TO 8 FT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO... MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 9 PM. $$ JAQ ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 048 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 165.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 165.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.3N 163.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.2N 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.4N 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.3N 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 25.8N 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.7N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.3N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 164.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 312200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/312135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 106.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 106.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.8N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.8N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.5N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.1N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.7N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 25.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 312200Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 107.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN32 PHNC 312200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/312130AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 117.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 117.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 19.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 19.7N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.9N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.0N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 20.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 20.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 19.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 312200Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 117.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 312200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/312135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 106.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 106.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.8N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.8N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.5N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.1N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.7N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 25.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 312200Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 107.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 312200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/312135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 106.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 106.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.8N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.8N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.5N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.1N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.7N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 25.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 312200Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 107.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTNT35 KNHC 312342 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BRING ERNESTO TO THE COAST AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE SPREADING ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES... THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.2 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 312348 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JOHN MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...21.0 N...107.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN