** WTSR20 WSSS 310600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KMHX 311216 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-311600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 815 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE STORM INFORMATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW AND CARTERET ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PEOPLE WITH MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A TWO TO FOUR FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 100 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...NEAR THE NORMAL TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 10 TO 14 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT. $$ TK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 311200 UTC 00HR 19.7N 166.4E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 162.5E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 23.3N 158.2E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 25.2N 153.1E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 311200UTC 19.7N 166.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 011200UTC 21.5N 162.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 021200UTC 23.3N 156.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 031200UTC 25.3N 151.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 311200 *** WARNING 311200. WARNING VALID 011200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 19.7N 166.4E NORTH OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 21.5N 162.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 23.3N 156.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 25.3N 151.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KILM 311258 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-311715- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 900 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL IMPACT THE CAROLINAS INTO THROUGH TONIGHT... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE CIRCULATING ON THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE AREA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR GEORGETOWN THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ERNESTO HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES LATER TODAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... HIGH TIDE WILL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM...AND MAXIMUM WINDS STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. THE SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET. COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE HORRY COUNTY COAST AND MODERATE ACROSS THE BRUNSWICK COAST. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN AND HORRY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 12 NOON. $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 311328 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-311800- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 930 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH AND 150 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BEAUFORT. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED. ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AREAS NORTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS EVENING... PASSING JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THIS TRACK...ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER CAPE ROMAIN BY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS MORNING. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OPERATIONS AND THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL REMAIN CLOSED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN THE HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...RESULTING IN STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE LEVELS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS AROUND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...INCLUDING THE BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD AND SAVANNAH AREAS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP STORM SURGE VALUES AT 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM FOLLY BEACH...TYBEE ISLAND...THE BUOY 40 MILES EAST OF EDISTO AND THE GRAYS REEF BUOY SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH INDICATE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 OR 35 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING BEAUFORT AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH TODAY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS BEING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF KIAWAH ISLAND TO MCCLELLANVILLE. SINCE ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST NORTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TODAY AS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. BE AWARE THAT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS MAY CLOSE BRIDGE ACCESS POINTS AT ANY TIME WHEN WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST EAST OF A CHARLESTON TO MONCKS CORNER LINE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS HAMPTON AND INLAND COLLETON COUNTIES TODAY AS ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE AND MONCKS CORNER. WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT DANIEL ISLAND. FOR AREAS WEST OF AN ALLENDALE TO PEMBROKE TO LUDOWICI LINE...INCLUDING STATESBORO...METTER...MILLEN AND REIDSVILLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL DETERIORATE TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE OPEN LAKE WATERS. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. SOME LAKESHORE FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST...WITH MOSTLY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 12 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33/REV/DB ** WTPN31 PGTW 311500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 047 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 166.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 166.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.7N 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 21.7N 161.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.7N 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.5N 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 25.3N 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 27.3N 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.9N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 165.7E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTPZ42 KNHC 311439 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE STILL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. BANDING THAT WAS PRESENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY A FEW HOURS AGO NOW HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT. AN 1138 TRMM PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS AN EARLIER PASS WAS MORE COMPLETE. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE COULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN...CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF KRISTY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING AN ALMOST IMMEDIATE INTERACTION AND THE GFDL SHOWING NONE AT ALL. THE DEPICTIONS OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS IN THE NOGAPS SEEM TOO LARGE...BUT THE GFDL TRACK FOR JOHN IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND ON THE INTERACTION SCENARIO AND ANTICIPATES THAT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JOHN WILL SLOW THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF KRISTY TO A CRAWL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WIND SHEAR OVER KRISTY IS PRESENTLY LIGHT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD GIVE KRISTY AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GETS ABOVE 70 KT. OUTFLOW FROM JOHN IS EXPANDING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD KRISTY...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER INHIBITING FACTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 17.9N 116.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 311440 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 311446 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES ...240 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES ...130 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOHN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.5 N...106.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 311447 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.7N 107.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.3N 111.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTNT35 KNHC 311449 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...A LITTLE STRONGER... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT25 KNHC 311449 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT45 KNHC 311449 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64 KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE INTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS AND IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 31.3N 79.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 311500 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT JOHN HAS AN OBSCURED EYE AND A DISTINCT EYEWALL...ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE. THE CUYUTLAN MEXICO RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE AS WELL AS RAIN BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 115 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 110 KT. JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOHN AT 1800 UTC...AND...IF NECESSARY...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MADE IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY THREE TO BORDERLINE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE DIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WITH LAND. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN 72 HOURS...JOHN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND STEADY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM SHOULD OCCUR BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12. JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A WEST- NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS WITH JOHN CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN FORECASTING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND EITHER TAKE JOHN ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OR REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH MAINTAIN ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO KEEP JOHN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 19.5N 106.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 20.7N 107.6W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 22.8N 110.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.3N 111.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTUS82 KJAX 311501 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-311800- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1101 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ALL WARNINGS ARE CANCELLED BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND ALTAMAHA SOUND... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS WELL AS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU... AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES HAS ALSO EXPIRED AND IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT UNTIL SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... NONE. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... NONE. ...TORNADOES... NONE. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM SHORE UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ LETRO ** WTUS82 KJAX 311501 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-311800- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1101 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ALL WARNINGS ARE CANCELLED BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND ALTAMAHA SOUND... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS WELL AS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU... AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES HAS ALSO EXPIRED AND IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT UNTIL SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... NONE. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... NONE. ...TORNADOES... NONE. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM SHORE UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ LETRO ** WTNT85 KNHC 311503 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC043-051-312100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060831T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-312100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060831T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SOUTH-SANTEE-RIVER-SC 33.12N 79.27W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC055-095-312100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060831T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-312100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060831T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-312100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-312100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ NCC019-031-129-133-141-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-312100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-330-350-352-312100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC013-029-049-053-137-139-143-177-187-312100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060831T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ AMZ130-135-312100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060831T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...AKQ...JAX...ILM... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 311510 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 28 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE DIRIGE HACIA LAS CAROLINAS...UN POCO MAS FUERTE... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EXTENDIDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT CAROLINA DEL NORTE INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y AMBEMARLE SOUNDS. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO AL SUR DEL RIO SAVANNAH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE EL RIO SAVANNAH HACIA EL NORTE HAST CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBERMLE SOUNDS. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z UTC...UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDO DESDE EL RIO SANTEE CAROLINA DEL SUR HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE 12 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.6 OESTE...O COMO A 225 MILLAS...360 KM...AL ESTE-SUROESTE DE WILMINGTON CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 105 MILLAS...170 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE CHARLESTON CAROLINA DEL SUR. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LAS COSTAS DE LAS CAROLINAS HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO SIGNIFICATIVO ANTES DE LLEGAR A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTR. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION P-3 DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA ERA DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL SURESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS APPALACHIANS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS...HASTA EL SABADO. ESTAS CANTIDADES PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE TARDE ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...31.3 NORTE...79.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR-NORESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR UN BOLETIN MAS DETALLADO A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTUS82 KMHX 311512 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103- 311815- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1112 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. STORM SURGE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...DARE...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL... WASHINGTON...PAMLICO... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH SOUTH-WEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PEOPLE WITH MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN GENERAL A 3 TO 5 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE WILL BE AROUND 1 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...NEAR THE NORMAL TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AS FAR INLAND AS NEW BERN AND WASHINGTON. IN ONSLOW COUNTY A STORM SURGE OF 5 FEET IS EXPECTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND. OTHER AREAS THAT COULD SEE WATER LEVELS 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INCLUDE THE PORTION OF DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER AND EXTREME EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 10 TO 14 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT. $$ TK ** WTPQ31 PGUM 311534 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST FRI SEP 1 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE MOVING AWAY FROM WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND 815 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 155 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 165.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 311500 *** WARNING 311500. WARNING VALID 011500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 20.1N 165.9E NORTHNORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 21.7N 161.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 311500UTC 20.1N 165.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 011500UTC 21.7N 161.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 021200UTC 23.3N 156.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 031200UTC 25.3N 151.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTUS82 KILM 311600 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-312015- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1158 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL IMPACT THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATCH AND WARNING STATUS HAS BEEN UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. AT THIS TIME...ERNESTO IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...FURTHER STRENGTHENING WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE CIRCULATING ON THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE AREA. ERNESTO WAS TURNING SLIGHTLY AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH GEORGETOWN THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ERNESTO HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES LATER TODAY. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND PREPARE FOR HEAVY RAIN. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... HIGH TIDE WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM...AND MAXIMUM WINDS STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THE SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SALT WATER FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE HORRY COUNTY COAST AND MODERATE ACROSS THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST AND ACROSS HORRY COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 3 PM. $$ ** WTUS82 KJAX 311608 CCA *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-311800- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1208 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ALL WARNINGS ARE CANCELLED BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND ALTAMAHA SOUND... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS WELL AS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU... AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES HAS ALSO EXPIRED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT UNTIL SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... NONE. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... NONE. ...TORNADOES... NONE. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM SHORE UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS FURTHER SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ LETRO/ENYEDI ** WTUS82 KCHS 311622 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-312100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1221 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO APPROACHING THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS... ...INCREASING WINDS AND RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON... ...NEW INFORMATION... CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FOLLOWING...WATCHES/WARNINGS... STORM INFORMATION...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS...WINDS...INLAND FLOODING AND NEXT UPDATE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS OUT 20 NM AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEAUFORT AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF MCCLELLANVILLE. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AREAS NORTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS EVENING. AT ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS ABOUT 40 TO 50 MILES EAST OF THE CHARLESTON METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND 5 PM...AND THE CENTER WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS AROUND 6 OR 7 PM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN TO A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THIS EVENING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OPERATIONS AND THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL REMAIN CLOSED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN THE HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...RESULTING IN STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE LEVELS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS AROUND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...INCLUDING THE BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD AND SAVANNAH AREAS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP STORM SURGE VALUES AT 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS. RECENT REPORTS FROM FOLLY BEACH...EDISTO BEACH...THE EDISTO 40 MILE BUOY...GRAYS REEF AND THE SABSOON TOWERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE REACHING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS IN DORCHESTER...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 OR 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY FROM THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA TO NEAR MCCLELLANVILLE. IN BERKELEY COUNTY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE AND OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION ON LAKE MOULTRIE MAY CAUSE SOME DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE. IN DORCHESTER COUNTY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. IN BEAUFORT...COASTAL COLLETON AND JASPER COUNTY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WINDS ACROSS INLAND COLLETON COUNTY WILL BE MAINLY 20 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ACROSS THE GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE CHARLESTON AND BEAUFORT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. BE AWARE THAT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS MAY CLOSE BRIDGE ACCESS POINTS AT ANY TIME WHEN WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ELSEWHERE WILL BE MOSTLY 1 INCH OR LESS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A CHARLESTON TO MONCKS CORNER LINE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST...WITH MOSTLY OFFSHORE WINDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTNT80 EGRR 311720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 79.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.08.2006 30.3N 79.6W MODERATE 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.2N 78.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 35.4N 77.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2006 36.7N 76.8W WEAK WEAKING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 105.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.08.2006 18.9N 105.6W STRONG 00UTC 01.09.2006 20.0N 107.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 20.7N 107.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 21.5N 108.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 22.3N 109.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 23.1N 111.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 23.7N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 24.2N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 24.1N 116.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 24.5N 118.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 116.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.08.2006 17.8N 116.2W MODERATE 00UTC 01.09.2006 18.3N 117.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 19.3N 118.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2006 19.9N 118.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 20.0N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 19.6N 120.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 18.6N 120.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.4N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 16.6N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 16.3N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 16.2N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 15.6N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2006 16.2N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 9.3N 32.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.08.2006 9.3N 32.9W WEAK 00UTC 01.09.2006 10.6N 31.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 11.5N 31.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 13.7N 33.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 13.7N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 14.8N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 15.9N 41.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.4N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 19.3N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 20.0N 48.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 22.7N 49.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 23.8N 53.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2006 23.4N 55.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.3N 20.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 11.3N 20.4W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2006 12.1N 20.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 12.6N 22.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 12.7N 24.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 12.6N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 12.9N 27.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 14.0N 27.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 15.7N 31.3W WEAK WEAKING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2006 16.5N 35.0W WEAK WEAKING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 311720 ** WTNT35 KNHC 311737 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 311749 CCA *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR REPEAT SECTION INTENSITY... ...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 311755 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES ...100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLAS MARIAS. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND APPROACH CABO SAN LUCAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH