** WTNT35 KNHC 310559 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO...ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 235 MILES...376 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/HR... AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...80.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT85 KNHC 310601 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-NCC019-031- 129-133-141-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-310900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472- 474-550-570-310900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...MHX...JAX...ILM... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 310609 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 26A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO NUEVAMENTE COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL...PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES SOBRE EL NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE COCOA BEACH FLORIDA HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.4 OESTE...O COMO A 235 MILLAS...376 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE CHARLESTON EN CAROLINA DEL SUR. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15T MPH...25 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO FUERA DE LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA Y LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HACIA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...29.4 NORTE...80.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTUS82 KILM 310633 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-311045- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 233 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL IMPACT THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON AND ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES LATER TODAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...BUT WILL BE RISING LATE TODAY. HIGH TIDES ARE BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM. COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE HORRY COUNTY COAST AND MODERATE ACROSS THE BRUNSWICK COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK COAST WILL EXPERIENCE THE MAXIMUM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN AND HORRY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 6 AM. $$ MAC ** WTUS82 KILM 310642 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-311045- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 233 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL IMPACT THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON AND ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES LATER TODAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...BUT WILL BE RISING LATE TODAY. HIGH TIDES ARE BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM. COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE HORRY COUNTY COAST AND MODERATE ACROSS THE BRUNSWICK COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK COAST WILL EXPERIENCE THE MAXIMUM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN AND HORRY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 6 AM. $$ MAC ** WTJP21 RJTD 310600 *** WARNING 310600. WARNING VALID 010600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 19.3N 167.5E EAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 21.1N 163.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 22.9N 158.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 24.6N 153.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 310600UTC 19.3N 167.5E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 21.1N 163.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 030600UTC 24.6N 153.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 310600 UTC 00HR 19.3N 167.5E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.4N 163.6E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 22.9N 158.4E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 25.2N 153.2E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTUS82 KMLB 310644 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 311000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 240 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO HAS RESTRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FOR NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES PROMPTING AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 42 MILES EAST OF FLAGLER BEACH OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH...MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS SUBSTANTIATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAIN IN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW AREAS WITH SOME STREET FLOODING. A FEW ROADS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY CLOSED IN MELBOURNE AND PALM BAY DUE TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THEIR VEHICLE THROUGH PLACES WHERE WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD. ...WINDS... ERNESTO REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... THE THREAT FOR STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS IS VERY LOW...LESS THAN 2 FEET...FOR THE COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO ORMOND BEACH THROUGH 5 AM. ELSEWHERE...ASSOCIATED WIND FLOW IS OFFSHORE. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 345 AM. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN PLACES WHICH EXPERIENCE REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 35 KNOTS EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN SQUALLS...PRIMARILY IN RAINBANDS. SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FEET. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KCHS 310645 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-311000- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 244 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. RECENT WIND REPORTS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCLUDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED. ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING... PASSING JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON THIS AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER CAPE ROMAIN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING. OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILE HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CEASE ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN THE HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. FOR SCHOOL CLOSURE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH IS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST... WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM FOLLY BEACH...TYBEE ISLAND...AND THE GRAYS REEF BUOY SOUTH OF SAVANNAH INDICATE WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ERNESTO APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS ERNESTO PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING BEAUFORT AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH TODAY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF KIAWAH ISLAND. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 20 HOURS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS IT APPROACHES THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT ANY DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF ERNESTO WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TODAY AS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. BE AWARE THAT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS MAY CLOSE BRIDGE ACCESS POINTS AT ANY TIME WHEN WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA FOR THURSDAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES TODAY. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST EAST OF A BEAUFORT TO MONCKS CORNER LINE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES PASSES JUST EAST OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTKO20 RKSL 310600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 310600UTC 19.3N 167.5E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 010600UTC 21.1N 163.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 48HR POSITION 020600UTC 22.9N 158.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 72HR POSITION 030600UTC 24.9N 153.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 310635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 31-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 310839 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...HURRICANE JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAS SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.7 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ21 KNHC 310839 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAS SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.0N 106.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.7N 109.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N 110.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ41 KNHC 310856 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 THE EYE REMAINS OBSCURED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT SUCCESSIVE 0231 AND 0232 UTC MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND THE CUYUTLAN MEXICO RADAR CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THE SOMEWHAT DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS POSSIBLY DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 110 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 100 TO 115 KT. JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS JOHN OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND MEXICO BUT NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND ONLY A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING WOULD MAKE JOHN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...AND THIS POSSIBILITY IS SUPPORTED BY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ONCE IT PASSES WEST OF BAJA...COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND...BUT SINCE JOHN IS SO STRONG NOW IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE CYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS JOHN A TROPICAL STORM AT DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/12...SO JOHN IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JOHN CONTINUING TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BACK TO THE RIGHT OR EAST AGAIN AND TAKES JOHN INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE OVERALL CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE AFTER THE WESTWARD TURN NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PRESUMES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN BUILDING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOHN THAT WILL TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST OTHERWISE...WHICH KEEPS THE CONSENSUS TRACKS SLOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE IN ITS ABSENCE. PAYING SOME ATTENTION TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS ON THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF JOHN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 18.7N 105.3W 110 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 20.0N 106.6W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 21.6N 108.0W 115 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.7N 109.3W 115 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.4N 110.6W 105 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 24.0N 113.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 04/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT45 KNHC 310858 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FOUND MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF 51 KT WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 43 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 45 KT. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 18 HOURS OVER WATER IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AND PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE COAST...BUT REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS UNLIKELY. AFTER LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/13. THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS ERNESTO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41010. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 30.0N 80.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 32.1N 79.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 34.6N 78.6W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 01/1800Z 37.0N 78.2W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/0600Z 39.3N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0600Z 44.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT25 KNHC 310900 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 80.2W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 80.2W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 80.4W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.1N 79.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.6N 78.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 78.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.3N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 44.5N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 80.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT35 KNHC 310900 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...150 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...30.0 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ22 KNHC 310902 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL ** WTUS82 KJAX 310904 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-311500- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO RIGHT ON TRACK AND CURRENTLY PASSING THE ST AUGUSTINE BUOY... ...NEW INFORMATION... NO CHANGES TO THE LOCAL FORECAST. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS WELL AS AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU... AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM EDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DUE TO WET ROADWAY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROAD SURFACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... TIDES ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE COAST. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING. ...TORNADOES... NONE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FEET OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ SANDRIK ** WTNT85 KNHC 310904 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC031-035-089-109-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-NCC019-031-129-133- 141-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-311500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472- 474-311500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ FLC009-127-311500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ AMZ550-570-311500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W FLAGLER-BEACH-FL 29.47N 81.12W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...MHX...JAX...ILM... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 310912 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE INTENSIFICA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO AL ESTE DE FLORIDA NORTE... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ES DESCONTINUADO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA AL SUR DE FLAGLER BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.2 OESTE...O COMO A 90 MILLAS...150 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA Y COMO A 195 MILLAS...310 KM...AL SUR DE CHARLESTON EN CAROLINA DEL SUR. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO FUERA DE LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MILIBARAS...29.47 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA Y LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EL SUR DE LOS APALACHES DEL SUR Y CENTRAL CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES AISLADAS DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA FLORIDA HOY. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE TARDE ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...30.0 NORTE...80.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...998 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ42 KNHC 310913 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CENTER WHILE LOSING ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CIRRUS OUTFLOW INDICATES A NEARLY CIRCULAR SYSTEM WITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE. T-NUMBERS WERE 4.0 FROM SAB... 4.5 FROM TAFB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT AND AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITIES AND A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES AT 0200 AND 0330 UTC WHICH INDICATED AN EYEWALL COULD BE DEVELOPING UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST. INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLOW...ABOUT 315/5. KRISTY AND HURRICANE JOHN ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 NM APART AT NEARLY THE SAME LATITUDE. AT THIS DISTANCE...SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE. IF A BINARY INTERACTION OCCURS...BECAUSE KRISTY IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC AND SLOW MOTION...PROBABLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...AND SUGGESTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND KRISTY REMAINS OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 26 CELSIUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT. BEYOND THAT TIME KRISTY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THE FUTURE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ANY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 17.6N 116.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W 80 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W 75 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL ** WTCA45 TJSJ 310920 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE INTENSIFICA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO AL ESTE DE FLORIDA NORTE... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ES DESCONTINUADO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA AL SUR DE FLAGLER BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.2 OESTE...O COMO A 90 MILLAS...150 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA Y COMO A 195 MILLAS...310 KM...AL SUR DE CHARLESTON EN CAROLINA DEL SUR. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO FUERA DE LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MILIBARAS...29.47 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA Y LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EL SUR DE LOS APALACHES DEL SUR Y CENTRAL CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES AISLADAS DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA FLORIDA HOY. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE TARDE ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...30.0 NORTE...80.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...998 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/KNABB ** WTUS82 KMHX 310928 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-311600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 530 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW AND CARTERET ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PEOPLE WITH MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A TWO TO FOUR FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE AROUND 100 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 10 TO 14 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES...THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT. $$ TK ** WTUS82 KMLB 310931 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 311300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 530 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO STEADILY MOVING AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... WITH ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED WITHIN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING HAS BEEN A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. PONDING OF WATER HAS COVERED SEVERAL STREETS CAUSING TEMPORARY ROAD CLOSURES AND DETOURS IN A FEW PLACES. MORNING MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ALERT FOR THESE DETOURS. ALSO...DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH PLACES WHERE WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH COVERS THE ROAD. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK THE DAILY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR INFORMATION ABOUT OTHER WEATHER HAZARDS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ...WINDS... ERNESTO REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVED OFF THE BREVARD COUNTY COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...MAINLY IN PASSING SHOWERS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... THE WIND FLOW FROM MARTIN COUNTY TO VOLUSIA COUNTY IS OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOODING IS NO LONGER A THREAT. ...INLAND FLOODING... ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING AWAY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF COASTAL VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AND HEAVY AT TIMES. LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... PARTICULARLY WITHIN BACKSIDE OUTER RAINBANDS. THIS MAY AGGRAVATE ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS...CANALS...AND SMALL STREAMS. RAPID PONDING OF WATER MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW ROADS TO BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES WITHIN A FEW BACKSIDE OUTER RAINBANDS TODAY. ...MARINE... OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS EXITED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS MAY REACH 40 KNOTS...MAINLY FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. $$ DWS ** WTJP31 RJTD 310900 *** WARNING 310900. WARNING VALID 010900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 19.5N 166.9E NORTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 21.4N 163.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 310900UTC 19.5N 166.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 21.4N 163.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 020600UTC 22.9N 158.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 030600UTC 24.6N 153.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 310951 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST THU AUG 31 2006 ...EYEWALL OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE OVER WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 167.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 600 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UTIRIK 610 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK AND 890 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF IOKE IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND...WHICH WAS EVACUATED EARLIER THIS WEEK. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AUTOMATED TIDE AND WEATHER STATION SHOW WAKE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING TYPHOON FORCE WINDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN EYEWALL OF IOKE RAKES THE ISLAND. THE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF EXTREMELY HIGH WINDS...SEAS...AND STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO WAKE ISLAND. WAKE IS ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO A STORM SURGE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHERE THE WAKE ATOLL IS OPEN TO THE SEA. THIS SHOULD BE OCCURRING NOW...AS EXTREMELY HIGH EYEWALL WINDS BACK FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON WAKE UNTIL IOKE MOVES FARTHER AWAY LATER THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 155 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...19.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 167.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST FRIDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN31 PHNC 311000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310935AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 105.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 105.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 20.0N 106.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.6N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.7N 109.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.4N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 24.0N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 24.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 311000Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 105.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 311000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310930AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 116.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 116.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 18.2N 116.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 18.9N 117.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 19.5N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.9N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 20.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 311000Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 116.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS82 KILM 311002 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-311415- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 602 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL IMPACT THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF RAIN DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDED ABOUT 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR GEORGETOWN THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. ERNESTO HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO RUSH PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES LATER TODAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...BUT WILL BE RISING LATE TODAY. HIGH TIDES ARE BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM. COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE HORRY COUNTY COAST AND MODERATE ACROSS THE BRUNSWICK COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK COAST WILL EXPERIENCE THE MAXIMUM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN AND HORRY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT BY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 9 AM. $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 311006 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-311000- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 605 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH AND 165 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BEAUFORT. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED. ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING... PASSING JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON THIS AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER CAPE ROMAIN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS LOW LYING AREAS...BARRIER ISLANDS OR MOBILE HOMES. FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CEASE ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT 9 AM EDT AND THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT 11 AM EDT. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN THE HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. FOR SCHOOL CLOSURE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...RESULTING IN STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE LEVELS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS AROUND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...INCLUDING THE BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD AND SAVANNAH AREAS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP STORM SURGE VALUES LESS THAN 1 FOOT. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM FOLLY BEACH...TYBEE ISLAND...AND THE GRAYS REEF BUOY SOUTH OF SAVANNAH INDICATE WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ERNESTO APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. FOR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING BEAUFORT AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH TODAY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS BEING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF KIAWAH ISLAND TO MCCLELLANVILLE. SINCE ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS IT APPROACHES THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TODAY AS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. BE AWARE THAT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS MAY CLOSE BRIDGE ACCESS POINTS AT ANY TIME WHEN WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES TODAY. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST EAST OF A BEAUFORT TO MONCKS CORNER LINE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS HAMPTON AND INLAND COLLETON COUNTIES TODAY AS ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE... MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT DANIEL ISLAND. FOR AREAS WEST OF AN ALLENDALE TO PEMBROKE TO LUDOWICI LINE...INCLUDING STATESBORO...METTER...MILLEN AND REIDSVILLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL DETERIORATE TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE OPEN LAKE WATERS. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. SOME LAKESHORE FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTUS82 KCHS 311032 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-311500- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 605 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. WIND FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH AND 165 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BEAUFORT. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED. ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING... PASSING JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON THIS AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER CAPE ROMAIN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS LOW LYING AREAS...BARRIER ISLANDS OR MOBILE HOMES. FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CEASE ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT 9 AM EDT AND THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT 11 AM EDT. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN THE HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. FOR SCHOOL CLOSURE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...RESULTING IN STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 8 FEET. THESE LEVELS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS AROUND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...INCLUDING THE BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD AND SAVANNAH AREAS... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP STORM SURGE VALUES LESS THAN 1 FOOT. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM FOLLY BEACH...TYBEE ISLAND...AND THE GRAYS REEF BUOY SOUTH OF SAVANNAH INDICATE WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ERNESTO APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. FOR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING BEAUFORT AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH TODAY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS BEING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF KIAWAH ISLAND TO MCCLELLANVILLE. SINCE ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS IT APPROACHES THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TODAY AS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. BE AWARE THAT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS MAY CLOSE BRIDGE ACCESS POINTS AT ANY TIME WHEN WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES TODAY. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST EAST OF A BEAUFORT TO MONCKS CORNER LINE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS HAMPTON AND INLAND COLLETON COUNTIES TODAY AS ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE... MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT DANIEL ISLAND. FOR AREAS WEST OF AN ALLENDALE TO PEMBROKE TO LUDOWICI LINE...INCLUDING STATESBORO...METTER...MILLEN AND REIDSVILLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL DETERIORATE TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE OPEN LAKE WATERS. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. SOME LAKESHORE FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTNT35 KNHC 311142 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...79.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA45 TJSJ 311152 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 27A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE HACIA LAS CAROLINAS... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.9 OESTE...O COMO A 95 MILLAS...155 KM...AL ESTE DE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA Y COMO A 170 MILLAS...275 KM...AL SUR DE CHARLESTON EN CAROLINA DEL SUR. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO FUERA DE LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA HOY...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO LEJOS DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA HOY...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y SUR TARDE ESTA TARDE O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 55 MPH...90 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UNA VION DE MA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 996 MILIBARAS...29.41 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA Y LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA.. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE EL NORESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO...Y EL SUR DE LOS APALACHES DEL SUR Y CENTRAL CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS HASTA EL SABADO. ESTAS CANTIDADES PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES AISLADAS DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA FLORIDA HOY. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE TARDE ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM EDT...30.4 NORTE...79.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...55 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...996 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 311152 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...155 KM... SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...19.0 N...105.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH