** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 310025 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO A PUNTO DE SALIR HACIA EL ATLANTICO... LLUVIAS FUERTES CONTINUAN SOBRE EL CENTRO Y SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.7 OESTE O JUSTO AL NOROESTE DE MELBOURNE FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE EL JUEVES. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO CERCA DE CABO CANAVERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ERNESTO TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE RECUPERAR INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O EL JUEVES SOBRE EL ATLANTICO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. LA OFICINA DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEORLOGIA EN MELBOURNE RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA PRESION DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL Y NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA HASTA TEMPRANO ESTA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...28.2 NORTE...80.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTJP21 RJTD 310000 *** WARNING 310000. WARNING VALID 010000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 18.7N 168.3E EAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 20.5N 164.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 22.1N 159.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 23.8N 153.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 310000UTC 18.7N 168.3E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 010000UTC 20.5N 164.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 020000UTC 22.1N 159.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 030000UTC 23.8N 153.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 310000 UTC 00HR 18.7N 168.4E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 165.6E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 21.8N 161.3E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 23.5N 155.8E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTUS82 KCHS 310050 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-310400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 848 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO IS POISED TO EMERGE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. CHARLESTON AIRPORT CLOSURE INFORMATION AS WELL AS INFORMATION CONCERNING THE PORT OPERATION LEVEL FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS BEEN INCLUDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA....INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST...OR VERY NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING... BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNEST IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY IN NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY AROUND 4 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CEASE ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. FOR SCHOOL CLOSURE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 20 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA FOR THURSDAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BEAUFORT AREA TO CHARLESTON...AWENDAW AND MCCLELLANVILLE. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 12 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTUS82 KILM 310050 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-310500- TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 850 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF ERNESTO. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...ERNESTO WAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS JUST NORTHWEST OF MELBOURNE...NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING ASHORE ON THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SAND HILLS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...AND COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS..IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN AND HORRY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. PONDING ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP ON THURSDAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MAC ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 310300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 045 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 168.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 168.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.4N 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.2N 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 21.1N 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 21.9N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.5N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.6N 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.2N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 167.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 310232 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.6W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.6W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.8N 79.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 78.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.9N 78.2W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 43.0N 79.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 80.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT35 KNHC 310232 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR... AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY. NOAA BUOY 41009 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 310235 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.7W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.7W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 310236 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP... HOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM INITIALLY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE BEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS. INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES SEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS THE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN ** WTNT85 KNHC 310237 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-NCC019-031- 129-133-141-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-310900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472- 474-550-570-310900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ555-575-310900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W COCOA-BEACH-FL 28.32N 80.60W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...MHX...JAX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KJAX 310240 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-310900- TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1040 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE... ...NEW INFORMATION... NO CHANGES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS WELL AS AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU... AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY. NOAA BUOY 41009 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AT THIS TIME. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDES OR COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. ...WINDS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ...MARINE... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM ON THURSDAY MORNING. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ SANDRIK ** WTPZ41 KNHC 310245 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY. THE EYE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME OBSCURED AND THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT HAS CAUSED A FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT BASED ON THE TRENDS IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE. STILL...JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC...GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED EAST OF JOHN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OFFSHORE AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE. INDEED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR JOHN TO BE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER... JOHN WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WEST OF BAJA... RESULTING IN WEAKENING. JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/14...DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON JOHN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...EFFECTIVELY PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO...AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT...OR WEST...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND NO LONGER SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BASED ON THEIR DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE MODELS...SAVE THE GFDL...LIFT THIS TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF JOHN...RESULTING IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFDL KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE ALLOWING JOHN TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCREDITED...ALL OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...EVEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ACCORDINGLY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 18.1N 104.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.9W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W 115 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.6W 115 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 110 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 23.8N 112.3W 100 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 121.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 310246 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 316 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTUS82 KMLB 310250 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 311000- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO OVER CAPE CANAVERAL AND MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED BETWEEN SEBASTIAN INLET AND COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF COCOA BEACH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF COCOA BEACH...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND SOME STREET FLOODING. RESIDENTS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT...MAINLY IN GUSTS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL ERNESTO EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT. ...WINDS... ERNESTO MAY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND MOVES NORTH. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SPREAD ONSHORE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE NIGHT AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO SLOWLY PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADD LESS THAN 2 FEET TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE NEAR MIDNIGHT MAINLY IN VOLUSIA COUNTY. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCED REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. THIS EVENING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY BETWEEN YEEHAW JUNCTION AN KENANSVILLE. HERE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 9 PM. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ...THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL IN EASTERN ORANGE...NORTHERN OSCEOLA...BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES HAS ALL BUT ENDED. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN SQUALLS...PRIMARILY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DECKER ** WTPZ21 KNHC 310251 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006 CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTNT45 KNHC 310258 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE BROAD CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41009 AND THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D SHOW THAT WINDS ARE NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE DATA DOES NOT YET JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE. HOWEVER...ERNESTO WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE CYCLONE AROUND 06Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12. ERNESTO IS NOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIVERGENCE COMING AFTER ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND STARTS TO DISINTEGRATE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ERNESTO HAS A DECENT...BUT BROAD...CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN AND WIND CIRCULATION. THIS...COMBINED WITH FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE GRADUAL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SUCH RE-INTENSIFICATION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE. 12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41009. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 28.7N 80.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 30.8N 79.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 35.9N 78.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/0000Z 37.9N 78.2W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0000Z 43.0N 79.5W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 310258 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF MEXICO...STRONG RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL STATES OF MICHOACAN AND COLIMA... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...104.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 310306 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SALIENDO HACIA EL ATLANTICO CERCA DE CABO CANAVERAL...SE ESPERA QUE RECUPERE INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HA DESCONTINUADO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA AL SUR DE COCOA BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE COCOA BEACH FLORIDA HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.6 OESTE. ESTA POSICION ESTA JUSTO AL NORTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA Y COMO A 360 MILLAS...580 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE MYRTLE BEACH CAROLINA DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...23 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO FUERA DE LA COSTA DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE...Y PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR TARDE EL JUEVES O EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE ERNESTO RECUPERE INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EL JUEVES. LA BOYA DE NOAA 41009 RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 42 MPH...68 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE CAROLINA DEL SUR Y DEL NORTE EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA Y LA COSTA NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HACIA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...28.7 NORTE...80.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTUS82 KMHX 310319 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-311200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1119 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW AND CARTERET ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PEOPLE WITH MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A THREE TO FIVE FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 730 PM TONIGHT AND AROUND 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH... ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES...THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES WILL BUILD TO SEVEN TO TEN FEET LATE TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM EDT. $$ CGG ** WTNT65 KNHC 310322 *** TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1125 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...RADAR AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41009 HAS REPORTED AN 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 36 MPH...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AT MELBOURNE FLORIDA HAS SHOWN WINDS OF 45-60 MPH AT 1000-2500 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH EAST OF THE CENTER. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTUS82 KMHX 310325 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-311200- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1119 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW AND CARTERET ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PEOPLE WITH MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A TWO TO FOUR FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 730 PM TONIGHT AND AROUND 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH... ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES...THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES WILL BUILD TO SEVEN TO TEN FEET LATE TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM EDT. $$ CGG ** WTUS82 KJAX 310328 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-310900- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1130 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...NEW INFORMATION... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS WELL AS AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU... AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... BASED ON WINDS AT A BUOY EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...HOWEVER..THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. AT 1130 PM EDT...THE BROAD CENTER OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 126 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AT THIS TIME. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... NO SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDES OR COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. ...WINDS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ...MARINE... OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM ON THURSDAY MORNING. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ SANDRIK ** WTUS82 KCHS 310334 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-310700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1134 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHS BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST...OR JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED. ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND AND APPROACH THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST THURSDAY EVENING...PASSING JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER CAPE ROMAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CEASE ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. FOR SCHOOL CLOSURE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF KIAWAH ISLAND. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 20 HOURS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS IT APPROACHES THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT ANY DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF ERNESTO WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA FOR THURSDAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BEAUFORT AREA TO CHARLESTON...AWENDAW AND MCCLELLANVILLE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES PASSES JUST EAST OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTUS82 KILM 310339 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-310745- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1139 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO RE-GAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPGRADES ERNESTO BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AND UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF ERNESTO...MOVING THE CENTER A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST BRINGING THE CENTER INTO GEORGETOWN SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH THURSDAY EVENING. IT ALSO INCREASES THE COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS TO 3 TO 5 FEET. RAINFALL IS INCREASED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TO FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY... AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11:25 PM EDT...ERNESTO WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON AND ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY THREE TO FIVE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...BUT WILL BE RISING LATE THURSDAY. HIGH TIDES ARE BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM. COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR ALONG THE GEORGETOWN...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE ALONG THE HORRY COUNTY COAST AND MODERATE ACROSS THE BRUNSWICK COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK COAST WILL EXPERIENCE THE MAXIMUM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN AND HORRY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND ACROSS BALD HEAD ISLAND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP ON THURSDAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 3 AM. $$ MAC ** WTUS82 KMHX 310341 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-311200- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1119 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW AND CARTERET ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. THOSE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PEOPLE WITH MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A TWO TO FOUR FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE HIGHEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 100 PM TOMORROW AND AROUND 100 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH... ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES...THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND THE SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO A SAFE LEVEL. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES WILL BUILD TO SEVEN TO TEN FEET LATE TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM EDT. $$ CGG ** WTPN31 PHNC 310400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310335AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 104.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 104.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.3N 105.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.3N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.4N 108.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.0N 109.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.8N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 24.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 310400Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 105.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS82 KCHS 310347 CCA *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-310700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1134 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHS BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION AND STRENGTHENS OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST...OR JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED. ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND AND APPROACH THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST THURSDAY EVENING...PASSING JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER CAPE ROMAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CEASE ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE AIRPORT TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT 11 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE COAST GUARD HAS SET PORT CONDITION YANKEE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. PORT CONDITION YANKEE RESTRICTS VESSEL MOVEMENT INBOUND AND OUTBOUND IN THE HARBOR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO PLANS TO UPGRADE TO CONDITION ZULU AT THIS TIME. FOR SCHOOL CLOSURE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF KIAWAH ISLAND. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 20 HOURS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS IT APPROACHES THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT ANY DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF ERNESTO WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA FOR THURSDAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BEAUFORT AREA TO CHARLESTON...AWENDAW AND MCCLELLANVILLE. REMEMBER THAT TORNADOES CAN FORM WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE DURING TROPICAL STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES PASSES JUST EAST OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTJP31 RJTD 310300 *** WARNING 310300. WARNING VALID 010300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 19.0N 167.9E EAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 20.9N 164.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 310300UTC 19.0N 167.9E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 010300UTC 20.9N 164.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 020000UTC 22.1N 159.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 030000UTC 23.8N 153.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 310400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/310330AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 115.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 115.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 17.8N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 18.6N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.3N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.9N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.2N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 19.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 310400Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 116.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 310400 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU AUG 31 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE BEARING DOWN ON WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 167.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 530 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UTIRIK 595 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK AND 965 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORISHIMA. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS COURSE AND SPEED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON VERY CLOSE TO WAKE ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 155 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 167.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTUS82 KMLB 310500 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 311000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1255 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...ERNESTO HAS RESTRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF COCOA BEACH...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT MIDNIGHT...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 40 MPH...TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS SUBSTANTIATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN BREVARD COUNTY WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND SOME STREET FLOODING. RESIDENTS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT...MAINLY IN GUSTS...AND POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL ERNESTO EXITS THE REGION AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. ...WINDS... ERNESTO REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SPREAD ONSHORE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE NIGHT AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO SLOWLY PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADD LESS THAN 2 FEET TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN NORTH VOLUSIA COUNTY. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCED REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY BETWEEN YEEHAW JUNCTION AN KENANSVILLE. AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT...THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL IN ORANGE...NORTHERN OSCEOLA...BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF ERNESTO AS IT EXITS THE AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES HAS ALL BUT ENDED. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 35 KNOTS EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN SQUALLS...PRIMARILY IN RAINBANDS. SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTNT80 EGRR 310517 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 80.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.08.2006 28.0N 80.2W WEAK 12UTC 31.08.2006 30.9N 79.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.7N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 36.0N 77.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 37.3N 77.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 103.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.08.2006 17.8N 103.7W INTENSE 12UTC 31.08.2006 18.6N 105.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 19.9N 106.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 20.9N 107.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 21.5N 108.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 21.5N 109.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 21.7N 110.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 21.8N 111.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 22.6N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 115.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.08.2006 16.6N 115.6W MODERATE 12UTC 31.08.2006 17.5N 116.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 18.5N 117.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 19.3N 118.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 20.1N 120.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 21.1N 121.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 20.9N 122.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 20.8N 123.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 20.3N 124.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 19.4N 125.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.4N 19.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 12.4N 19.2W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2006 13.3N 21.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 14.2N 23.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 14.7N 27.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 15.0N 28.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 15.7N 29.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 17.1N 30.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2006 17.4N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 18.7N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2006 20.0N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 310517 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 310558 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...STRONG RAIN BANDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL STATES OF MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND JALISCO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAS SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...104.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB