** WTNT85 KNHC 301806 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-NCC019- SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-302100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-550- 555-570-575-302100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX...ILM... ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC 00HR 18.1N 169.2E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 19.9N 165.9E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 21.3N 161.3E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 22.8N 157.4E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTUS82 KCHS 301824 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-302200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 224 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO MOVING NORTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO NOW DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CHANGED. THERE IS NOW NEW STORM INFORMATION AVAILABLE. MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATE TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PERSONS WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT EITHER CHARLESTON OR COLLETON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY AND CAPE ROMAIN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 22 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 7 INCHES. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTUS82 KCHS 301826 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-302200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 224 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO MOVING NORTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... THERE IS NOW NEW STORM INFORMATION AVAILABLE. A SECTION ON PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS HAS BEEN ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATE TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PERSONS WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT EITHER CHARLESTON OR COLLETON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY AND CAPE ROMAIN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 22 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 7 INCHES. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTJP21 RJTD 301800 *** WARNING 301800. WARNING VALID 311800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 18.1N 169.2E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 20.1N 166.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 21.7N 161.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 23.6N 155.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 301800UTC 18.1N 169.2E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 311800UTC 20.1N 166.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 011800UTC 21.7N 161.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 021800UTC 23.6N 155.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 301800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 301800UTC 18.1N 169.2E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 311800UTC 19.9N 165.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 48HR POSITION 011800UTC 21.6N 161.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 72HR POSITION 021800UTC 23.5N 156.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS82 KILM 301900 *** HLSILM AMZ252-254-256-NCZ100-SCZ034-046-310000- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 300 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF ERNESTO. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR FORECAST WINDS BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...ERNESTO WAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING....AND STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING ASHORE ON THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SAND HILLS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE ONE. PLANNING INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION IS ON LINE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...AND COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND PEE DEE REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND THE PEE COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE... BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 6 PM. $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 302005 CCA *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-302200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 224 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 CORRECTED TO ADD PHONE NUMBERS IN PREPAREDNESS SECTION ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO MOVING NORTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... THERE IS NOW NEW STORM INFORMATION AVAILABLE. A SECTION ON PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS HAS BEEN ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATE TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PERSONS WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...AND THE SPANISH HOTLINE IS 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY AND CAPE ROMAIN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 22 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 7 INCHES. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTPZ42 KNHC 302020 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTHOUGH IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND A NEW BURST OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING NEARLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER...WITH EVEN A SUGGESTION OF AN INTERMITTENT EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELD A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS USED...MAYBE CONSERVATIVELY...FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS INCREASING AND KRISTY SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAIRLY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. LATER ON...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 305/5. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF KRISTY. SINCE THIS MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY REALISTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AT HOURS 96-120. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 17.0N 115.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 117.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 119.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 04/1800Z 19.0N 127.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 302021 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 117.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.9N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT25 KNHC 302031 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 5PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 80.8W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 80.8W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.4N 79.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 80.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT45 KNHC 302032 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND A FEW RAINBANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AND SOON IT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND NEARING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. TRACK MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 27.6N 80.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.4W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1800Z 32.4N 79.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1800Z 37.5N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 302032 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... AT 5PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.6 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 044 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 169.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 169.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 18.9N 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 19.7N 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.6N 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.4N 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 23.1N 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 25.1N 151.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.9N 148.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 168.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.// ** WTNT85 KNHC 302038 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO NCC031-129-133-141-310300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ AMZ158-250-310300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-NCC019- SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-310300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-550- 555-570-575-310300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...MHX...JAX...ILM... ** WTPZ41 KNHC 302038 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JOHN IS UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 1520 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. BOTH THE OCCURRENCE AND TIME SCALE OF THESE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSIDERING THE CURRENT INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT HAS ENDED. THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...PARALLEL TO BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. ONLY A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER ASHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 1800 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 17.4N 103.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W 125 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W 125 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 302039 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 302039 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL BUT CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES ...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES ...135 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.4 N...103.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTCA45 TJSJ 302056 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES SOBRE EL CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EXTENDIDO HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE.AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA HASTA CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.8 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS...40 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE VERO BEACH FLORIDA Y COMO A 55 MILLAS...90 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ERNESTO TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE RECUPERAR INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EL JUEVES SOBRE EL ATLANTICO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE CENTRAL Y NORESTE DE LA FLORIDA HASTA TEMPRANO ESTA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...27.6 NORTE...80.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT25 KNHC 302100 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE INLAND AT THE 12 HR TIME... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 80.8W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 80.8W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.4N 79.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 80.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT45 KNHC 302100 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE INLAND AT THE 12 HR TIME... THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND A FEW RAINBANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AND SOON IT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND NEARING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. TRACK MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 27.6N 80.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 32.4N 79.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1800Z 37.5N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTUS82 KMLB 302104 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 310400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 504 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CHURNS ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES WEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN GUSTS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL ERNESTO EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...WINDS... THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO REMAINS WEAK...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING BACK OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SPREAD ONSHORE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH DURING TIMES OF PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADD LESS THAN 2 FEET TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN A SMALL REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCED REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. ...TORNADOES... AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN SQUALLS...PRIMARILY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DECKER ** WTUS82 KJAX 302111 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-310400- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 510 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... WHILE ERNESTO CONTINUES BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THESE BANDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING BRINGING OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ESPECIALLY FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... DUE TO THE POSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CENTER REACHES THE OCEAN AND THE PROXMITY TO THE COAST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER...ST JOHNS...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF THESE COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 190 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... TIDES OF ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER NORTHEASTER. ...WINDS... THE PRIMARY WIND THREAT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH 40 MPH IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WINDS MAY INCREASE AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE TRAINING OF HEAVIER STORMS IN FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN STRONGER RAIN BANDS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 12 FEET. LOCAL INLETS MAY EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM THIS EVENING. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ LETRO ** WTUS82 KMHX 302114 *** HLSMHX AMZ158-NCZ095-098-310400- TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 510 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ONSLOW AND CARTERET ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH IN NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR 25 MILES WEST VERO BEACH FLORIDA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW. CURRENTLY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO. PEOPLE SHOULD USE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM. PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND AS ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH. MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO IN CASE FLASH FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. PEOPLE WITH MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A ONE TO THREE FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM SURGE WOULD BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 730 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ERNESTO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH... ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES...THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... WAVES WILL BUILD TO SEVEN TO TEN FEET LATE THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES THEN CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM EDT. $$ ** WTUS82 KMLB 302115 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 310400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 515 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CHURNS ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES WEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN GUSTS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL ERNESTO EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...WINDS... THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO REMAINS WEAK...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING BACK OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SPREAD ONSHORE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH DURING TIMES OF PASSING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADD LESS THAN 2 FEET TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE NEAR MIDNIGHT. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN A SMALL REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCED REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. ...TORNADOES... AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN SQUALLS...PRIMARILY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DECKER ** WTPQ20 RJTD 302100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 302100UTC 18.3N 168.8E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 312100UTC 20.4N 165.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 011800UTC 21.7N 161.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 021800UTC 23.6N 155.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 302100 *** WARNING 302100. WARNING VALID 312100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 18.3N 168.8E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 20.4N 165.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KILM 302151 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-310200- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 551 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF ERNESTO AND EXPANDS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...ERNESTO WAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING....AND STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING ASHORE ON THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SAND HILLS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...AND COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS..IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND PEE DEE REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND THE PEE COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. PONDING ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE... BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP ON THURSDAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 9 PM. $$ RAS/TM ** WTPQ31 PGUM 302204 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST THU AUG 31 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE BEGINS ITS ASSAULT ON WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 495 MILES NORTH OF UTIRIK 615 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK AND 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORISHIMA. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON VERY CLOSE TO WAKE ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 155 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 160 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...18.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 168.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTUS82 KILM 302213 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-310200- TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 551 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF ERNESTO AND EXPANDS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. ....AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...ERNESTO WAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING....AND STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING ASHORE ON THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SAND HILLS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AND STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED INDOORS BEFORE THE STORM. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...AND IN CASE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...AND COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS..IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...WINDS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND PEE DEE REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND THE PEE COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...INLAND FLOODING... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. PONDING ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS OVER THE HEADWATERS. ...TORNADOES... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS THAT DEVELOP ON THURSDAY COULD BE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION... SURF WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 9 PM. $$ RAS/TM ** WTUS82 KCHS 302214 RRA *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-310100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 532 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY WITH A FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THERE IS NOW NEW STORM INFORMATION AVAILABLE. NEW WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND INLAND FLOODING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN... LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTY FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 25 MILES WEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... OFFICIALS IN CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY HAVE ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL PERSONS WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS THE BEACHES...BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILES HOMES OR IN LOW LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELOCATE TO A SAFE LOCATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY CITIZEN INFORMATION HOTLINE AT 843-202-7100...OR THE SPANISH HOTLINE AT 843-202-7191. FOR INFORMATION IN COLLETON COUNTY CALL 843-549-5632. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY...CAPE ROMAIN AND MCCLELLANVILLE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 20 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTY. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI-COUNTY AREA FOR THURSDAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BEAUFORT AREA TO CHARLESTON...AWENDAW AND MCCLELLANVILLE. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER BERKELEY COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33 ** WTPN31 PHNC 302200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/302135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 102.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 102.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 18.6N 104.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 20.4N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.8N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.8N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 24.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 302200Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 103.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 302336 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...STRONG RAINBANDS APPROACHING MANZANILLO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES ...160 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES ...195 KM...WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...17.7 N...104.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTNT35 KNHC 302346 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR JUST NORTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT OR THURSDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MELBOURNE RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 IN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...28.2 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTUS82 KJAX 302352 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ153-154-165-166-310300- TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 750 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... ...NEW INFORMATION... NO CHANGES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER...ST JOHNS... DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF THESE COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR JUST NORTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS 160 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT OR THURSDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AT THIS TIME. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... TIDES OF ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IMPACTS SIMILAR TO A LOCAL WINTER NORTHEASTER. ...WINDS... ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT. INLAND WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THE TRAINING OF HEAVIER STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS POSSIBLE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... WINDS MAY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ SANDRIK