** WTSR20 WSSS 300600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 301209 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 23A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO DEBILITANDOSE TIERRA ADENTRE SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA HACIA EL SUROESTE...ALREDEDOR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...Y AL NORTE HASTA EL RIO SAVANNAH...INCLUYENDO TODOS LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS BAHAMAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO BIEN TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE EL ESTE DEL CONDADO COLLIER CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.0 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE NAPLES FLORIDA Y COMO A 75 MILLAS...120 KM...AL SUROESTE DE WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTE AVISO PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO EN UNA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTA DIRECCION GENERAL CONTINUE HOY CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE ESTARA MOVIENDO A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL HOY A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. SINEMBARGO...BANDAS DE LLUVIA CON FUERTES RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS HASTA DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUARAN MOVIENDOSE HACIA TIERRA HOY EN LAS AREAS DEL AVISO... ESPECIALMENTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS HAN COMENZADO A DISMINUIR EN LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. SE PUEDE ESPERAR MAREJADAS COSTERAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS EN AREAS CON UN FLUJO HACIA TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. ES POSIBLES QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA HOY CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS POSIBLES. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. LA HUMEDAD SE EXTENDERA HACIA EL NORTE BIEN DELANTE DE ERNESTO A TRAVES DE GEORGIA Y LAS CAROLINAS HOY. ESTO PUDIERA TRAER DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA TAN AL NORTE COMO VIRGINIA...EL SUR DE MARYLAND...Y EL SUR DE DELAWARE PARA EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM EDT...26.0 NORTE...81.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT, $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTUS82 KKEY 301210 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-301530- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 810 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...ERNESTO IS WEAKENING INLAND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE 800 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS TO INCLUDE RECENT REPORTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THIS PLACES THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION INLAND OVER MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA... WHICH IS SOME 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES, FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KEYS AREA TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KEYS TODAY... MAINLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS IN PASSING SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS. BE EXTRA CAREFUL IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT THIS MORNING. KEYS SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO BE CLOSED BY 10 AM. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE DEACTIVATED BY NOON. KEYS AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-OPEN SOMETIME TODAY. CALL YOUR AIR CARRIER FOR SPECIFIC FLIGHT INFORMATION. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS REMAIN CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY WILL KEEP OFFICES CLOSED TODAY. TEACHERS AND STAFF ARE TO REPORT TO MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS THIS MORNING...BUT STUDENTS WILL NOT RESUME CLASSES UNTIL THURSDAY. CITY OF KEY WEST OFFICES WILL REOPEN TODAY...AS WELL AS LODGING ENTITIES. CITY OF MARATHON AND ISLAMORADA OFFICES ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO REOPEN TODAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR ON SOME BAY AND GULF SIDE LOCATIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TODAY...202 PM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...156 PM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...202 PM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 313 PM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... WIND GAUGES AROUND THE KEYS AREA THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE REGISTERED GUSTS TO 43 MPH AT MOLASSES REEF...41 MPH AT LONG KEY...38 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY...AND 35 MPH AT SAND KEY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE KEYS AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ON THE KEYS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES...HOWEVER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN ON LOWER KEYS LOCATIONS FROM THE TORCH KEYS TO CUDJOE KEY. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON KEYS ISLANDS TODAY IN QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS. BE ALERT TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BROCK ** WTUS82 KMFL 301212 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-301600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 812 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION, WINDS, INLAND FLOODING, MARINE IMPACTS, TORNADO IMPACTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MIAMI, 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH, OR 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 40 MPH PRIMARILY OVER MARINE AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO REMAINS OVER LAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF 4 AM EDT, FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT ESTIMATED ABOUT 6800 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. IF DOWNED POWER LINES ARE ENCOUNTERED, STAY FAR AWAY UNTIL AUTHORITIES CAN SHUT OFF POWER AND SECURE THE DOWNED LINE. IF POWER LINES ARE ENTANGLED IN DOWNED TREES, KEEP FAR AWAY UNTIL PROPERLY TRAINED EXPERTS CAN ADDRESS THE SITUATION. NEVER USE CHAIN SAWS ON TREES THAT HAVE POWER LINES ENTANGLED IN THEM. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE EFFECTS WITH ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.2 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A MINIMAL STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 13 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WILL AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LAKE, WHICH WILL LOCALLY HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. ...WINDS... ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...SUSTAINED WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. LESSER WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST SO FAR WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT AT ABOUT 3 AM EDT WITH 58 MPH. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OVER LAND SO FAR WAS REPORTED AT FLAMINGO IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK WITH 47 MPH AT 527 AM EDT AND AT POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT WITH 40 MPH AT 437 AM EDT. WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH WERE REPORTED AT PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND TAMIAMI AIRPORT AROUND 725 AM EDT. SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT 8 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES WHERE FROM 2.5 TO AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PRIMARILY UNINHABITED AREAS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. FROM ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS METRO COLLIER. HIGHEST REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY 8 AM INCLUDED 2.26 INCHES AT LONG PINE KEY IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, 1.87 INCHES AT OCHOPEE IN SOUTH COLLIER, 1.78 AT OASIS RANGER STATION IN SOUTH COLLIER, 1.65 INCHES AT IMMOKALEE IN NORTH COLLIER COUNTY, 1.58 INCHES AT COOPER CITY IN BROWARD, AND 1.56 INCHES AT THE FORT LAUDERDALE DIXIE WATER PLANT. IN SPITE OF THE RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT, HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH. AN ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNT TO 10 INCHES IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED SEVERAL TIMES OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT, 8 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY BISCAYNE. WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE, GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY IN SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A TORNADO WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON EDT. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KKEY 301214 CCA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-301530- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 810 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...ERNESTO IS WEAKENING INLAND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE 800 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS TO INCLUDE RECENT REPORTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THIS PLACES THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SOME 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES, FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KEYS AREA TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KEYS TODAY... MAINLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS IN PASSING SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS. BE EXTRA CAREFUL IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT THIS MORNING. KEYS SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO BE CLOSED BY 10 AM. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE DEACTIVATED BY NOON. KEYS AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-OPEN SOMETIME TODAY. CALL YOUR AIR CARRIER FOR SPECIFIC FLIGHT INFORMATION. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS REMAIN CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY WILL KEEP OFFICES CLOSED TODAY. TEACHERS AND STAFF ARE TO REPORT TO MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS THIS MORNING...BUT STUDENTS WILL NOT RESUME CLASSES UNTIL THURSDAY. CITY OF KEY WEST OFFICES WILL REOPEN TODAY...AS WELL AS LODGING ENTITIES. CITY OF MARATHON AND ISLAMORADA OFFICES ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO REOPEN TODAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR ON SOME BAY AND GULF SIDE LOCATIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TODAY...202 PM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...156 PM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...202 PM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 313 PM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... WIND GAUGES AROUND THE KEYS AREA THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE REGISTERED GUSTS TO 43 MPH AT MOLASSES REEF...41 MPH AT LONG KEY...38 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY...AND 35 MPH AT SAND KEY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE KEYS AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ON THE KEYS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES...HOWEVER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN ON LOWER KEYS LOCATIONS FROM THE TORCH KEYS TO CUDJOE KEY. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON KEYS ISLANDS TODAY IN QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS. BE ALERT TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BROCK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC 00HR 17.5N 169.9E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 19.3N 166.7E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 20.8N 162.6E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 22.2N 158.1E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTNT85 KNHC 301240 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC009-011-021-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC029- 039-051-127-179-191-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651- 670-671-GMZ033-656-657-676-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ610-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTJP21 RJTD 301200 *** WARNING 301200. WARNING VALID 311200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 17.4N 169.9E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 19.1N 166.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 20.3N 162.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 22.3N 157.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 301200UTC 17.4N 169.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 311200UTC 19.1N 166.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 011200UTC 20.3N 162.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 021200UTC 22.3N 157.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTUS82 KILM 301259 *** HLSILM AMZ252-254-256-NCZ100-SCZ034-046-301700- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 859 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA EVERGLADES...NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR BOATS. IF POSSIBLE...BOATS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE WATER AND MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR RELOCATING AIRCRAFT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK STORM...STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. $$ ** WTUS82 KCHS 301311 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-301600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 910 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE LATEST POSITION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SAVANNAH. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAVANNAH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON...COLLETON... BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING TODAY WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY AND CAPE ROMAIN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 7 INCHES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 11 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33/RJB ** WTPN31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 043 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 169.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 169.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 18.3N 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.1N 166.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 19.9N 164.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.7N 162.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 22.3N 157.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.1N 153.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.1N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 169.4E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.// ** WTPZ42 KNHC 301431 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON EARLIER SATELLITE PICTURES...RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMMA-LIKE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEVELOPING. CLOUD TOPS ARE VERY COLD OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND BANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE SHORT-TERM OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/5. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.7N 115.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 117.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 301431 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 115.1W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 115.1W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.8N 117.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 301435 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...HURRICANE JOHN NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES ...260 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM... SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON RECENT RECONNAISSANCE DATA...IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 301435 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO. AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.3W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 25SE 10SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.3W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 103.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 102.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN ** WTNT45 KNHC 301446 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. A FEW GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE REMAINS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERNESTO TO RE-INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AND THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT ERNESTO WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS A TROPICAL STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 26.4N 80.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1200Z 44.8N 79.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT25 KNHC 301446 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 80.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 80.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 81.0W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 44.8N 79.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 80.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 301446 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT85 KNHC 301452 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC009-011-021-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC029- 039-051-127-179-191-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651- 670-671-GMZ033-656-657-676-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ610-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KMLB 301458 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 302200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM...ERNESTO WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA... OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES. SINCE THE DEPRESSION COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS EVENING AFTER MOVING OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES...BUT HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE... ORANGE...OSCEOLA...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BRINGING THE CENTER OFFSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN GUSTS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL ERNESTO EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...WINDS... THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING AFTER MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING BACK OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL WINDS NEAR 40 MPH... MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SPREAD ONSHORE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH DURING TIMES OF PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADD LESS THAN 2 FEET TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN A SMALL REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCED REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. ...TORNADOES... AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN SQUALLS...PRIMARILY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ SPRATT ** WTCA45 TJSJ 301504 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE MAS TIERRA ADENTRO... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL SUR DE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL SUR HASTA ALREDEDOR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA HASTA LA PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SAVANNAH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EXTENDIDO HACIA EL NORTE Y ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE Y NORESTE A LO LARGO DE CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.9 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS...85 KM...OESTE-SUROESTE DE WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA Y COMO A 115 MILLAS...190 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE SARASOTA FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CERCA DE 10 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CONTINUE HOY A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DEBERA MOVERSE SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD MIENTRAS ERNESTO ESTE SOBRE TIERRA PERO PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION EL JUEVES CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE PUEDE ESPERAR MAREJADAS COSTERAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS EN AREAS CON UN FLUJO HACIA TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. ES POSIBLES QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE Y HASTA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...26.4 NORTE...80.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MA DETALLADA A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 301505 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN THIS MORNING JUST AFTER THE EYE REAPPEARED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 126 KT WAS REPORTED ON THE OUTBOUND LEG NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS REDUCES TO 113 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. FURTHERMORE... DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.0 OR 115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND JOHN HAS NOW REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...AND THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS... CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY FOUR THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER WHICH...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE HURRICANE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND PARALLEL VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU. THERE REMAINS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AFTER THREE DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL TAKES JOHN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FROM THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPDATED TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST AND THE EXPANDED WIND RADII HAVE PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.6N 102.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.6N 103.6W 125 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W 125 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 21.0N 107.3W 125 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 22.3N 108.7W 120 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 115.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KJAX 301507 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-040-GAZ153-154-165-166-302200- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1106 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CLAY...PUTNAM...AND MARION COUNTIES IS DISCONTINUED. BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST OF THE STORM REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER OPEN WATER AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REMAIN IN EFFECT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER...ST JOHNS...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF THESE COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...MOSTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... TIDES OF ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER NORTHEASTER. ...WINDS... THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... LOCALIZED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS RAINFALL WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED LOW LYING AREAS. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER BANDS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER. LOCAL INLETS MAY EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM THIS MORNING. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ LETRO ** WTNT35 KNHC 301507 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT... ...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT35 KNHC 301507 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT... ...ERNESTO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT85 KNHC 301508 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-302100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-302100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ FLC011-021-061-085-086-087-099-111-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W $$ AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-656-657-676-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W $$ AMZ610-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTNT85 KNHC 301512 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC009-031-035-089-109-127-GAC029-039-051-127-179-191-302100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-302100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ FLC011-021-061-085-086-087-099-111-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W $$ AMZ630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-656-657-676-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W SEBASTIAN-INLET-FL 27.84N 80.43W $$ AMZ610-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-302100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KMFL 301513 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-301900- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1112 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO DOWNGRADED AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CANCELLED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS, STORM INFORMATION, PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION, WINDS, SURGE, INLAND FLOODING, MARINE IMPACTS, TORNADO IMPACTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MIAMI, 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH, OR 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 40 MPH PRIMARILY OVER MARINE AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO REMAINS OVER LAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AS OF 8 AM, FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT ESTIMATED ABOUT 7700 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. IF DOWNED POWER LINES ARE ENCOUNTERED, STAY FAR AWAY UNTIL AUTHORITIES CAN SHUT OFF POWER AND SECURE THE DOWNED LINE. IF POWER LINES ARE ENTANGLED IN DOWNED TREES, KEEP FAR AWAY UNTIL PROPERLY TRAINED EXPERTS CAN ADDRESS THE SITUATION. NEVER USE CHAIN SAWS ON TREES THAT HAVE POWER LINES ENTANGLED IN THEM. SEVERAL TRAFFIC SIGNALS ARE OUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND TREAT INTERSECTIONS WITH NON- FUNCTIONING TRAFFIC SIGNALS AS FOUR WAY STOPS. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. PERSONS ARE URGED TO NOT TAKE DOWN STORM SHUTTERS UNTIL THESE WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE EFFECTS WITH ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. SURGE VALUES ON BISCAYNE BAY OVERNIGHT WERE ESTIMATED AT 1 TO 2 FEET. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.2 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A MINIMAL STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 13 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WILL AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LAKE, WHICH WILL LOCALLY HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. ...WINDS... OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN AVERAGING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WINDS HAVE BEEN MAINLY 20 MPH OR LESS, EXCEPT NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THESE AREAS. SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT 11 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY WHERE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES, HAS FALLEN ACROSS PRIMARILY UNINHABITED AREAS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. FROM ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE NAPLES AREA MAINLY NEAR GOLDEN GATE. HIGHEST REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY 8 AM INCLUDED 2.26 INCHES AT LONG PINE KEY IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, 1.87 INCHES AT OCHOPEE IN SOUTH COLLIER, 1.78 AT OASIS RANGER STATION IN SOUTH COLLIER, 1.65 INCHES AT IMMOKALEE IN NORTH COLLIER COUNTY, 1.58 INCHES AT COOPER CITY IN BROWARD, AND 1.56 INCHES AT THE FORT LAUDERDALE DIXIE WATER PLANT. IN SPITE OF THE RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL TOTALS, HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH. AN ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNT OF 8 TO 10 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY NORTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF HENDRY COUNTY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED THIS MORNING AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT, VIRGINIA KEY AND LAKE WORTH PIER. WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE, GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY IN SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NEAR OR RIGHT OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT, AND MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. WITH ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES FROM MARCO ISLAND NORTHWARD. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF A TORNADO WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL UPDATE. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTUS82 KTBW 301517 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-057-301800- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT WITH ERNESTO HAS DIMINISHED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE PLACID IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ALL INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHARLOTTE...LEE...DE SOTO...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...PINELLAS...POLK AND SARASOTA. ...WINDS... THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. ISOLATED HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE FINAL HLS ISSUANCE FOR ERNESTO. $$ PETRO ** WTUS82 KKEY 301533 CCA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-301700- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED TO INCLUDE INFORMATION CONCERNING GOVERNMENT OFFICES AND FACILITIES...SCHOOLS...AND AIRPORT INFORMATION...AS WELL AS STRONG WORDING ON DRIVING HAZARDS. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ALL MENTIONS OF STORM SURGE AND TIDES HAVE BEEN REMOVED. MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO EMPHASIZE MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. THIS PLACES THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOME 110 MILES NORTH OF ISLAMORADA, FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND. HOWEVER...RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KEYS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB...OR 29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS IN PASSING SQUALLS...COMBINED WITH BLINDING DOWNPOURS AND STANDING WATER ON THE ROADWAYS...COULD MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS ALONG THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AND SECONDARY ROADS. STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG KEY DEER BOULEVARD IN BIG PINE KEY...AND MINOR STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE KEYS...OTHERWISE THE ROADWAYS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO STORM DAMAGE. BE EXTRA CAREFUL IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. KEYS SHELTERS ARE CLOSED. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL SCALE DOWN TO A PARTIAL ACTIVATION AT NOON TODAY. THE AIRPORTS AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON ARE OPEN. CALL YOUR AIR CARRIER FOR SPECIFIC FLIGHT INFORMATION. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS WILL OPEN TOMORROW. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL OPEN TOMORROW. OPENING TOMORROW. STUDENTS WILL RESUME CLASSES TOMORROW. CITY OF KEY WEST OFFICES ARE OPEN. CITY OF MARATHON AND ISLAMORADA OFFICES OPEN. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... NO FURTHER STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ...WINDS... WIND GAUGES AROUND THE KEYS AREA THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN REGISTERING WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...HOWEVER DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN PASSING SQUALLS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER KEYS...WITH SOME 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FROM CUDJOE KEY EASTWARD. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON KEYS ISLANDS TODAY IN QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS. BE ALERT TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SQUALLS CONTAINING WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL OCCUR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. MARINERS NEED TO CHECK THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST BEFORE VENTURING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEA CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE NOW OPEN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS ** WTJP31 RJTD 301500 *** WARNING 301500. WARNING VALID 311500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 17.7N 169.6E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311500UTC AT 19.4N 166.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 301500UTC 17.7N 169.6E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 311500UTC 19.4N 166.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 011200UTC 20.3N 162.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 021200UTC 22.3N 157.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTUS82 KCHS 301552 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-301900- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1150 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO NOW DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CHANGED. THERE IS NOW NEW STORM INFORMATION AVAILABLE. MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF SAVANNAH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING TODAY WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY NEAR HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY AND CAPE ROMAIN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 22 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 7 INCHES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33/REV ** WTUS82 KILM 301556 *** HLSILM AMZ252-254-256-NCZ100-SCZ034-046-302000- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1156 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT STATUS AND POSITION OF ERNESTO... AND CHANGES THE WATCH AND WARNING STATUS FOR THE CAROLINAS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...ERNESTO HAD WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA EVERGLADES...NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING....AND STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING ASHORE ON THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SAND HILLS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR BOATS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT A MINIMUM...AND COASTAL FLOODING EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GEORGETOWN...HORRY...AND THE PEE COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LAND FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 3 PM. $$ ** WTPQ31 PGUM 301622 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 222 AM GUAM LST THU AUG 31 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE CONTINUES ON COURSE TOWARD WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 169.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 735 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO 440 MILES NORTH OF UTIRIK AND 610 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON VERY CLOSE TO WAKE ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIPPED SLIGHTLY TO 155 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BACK TO 160 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...17.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 169.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTUS82 KCHS 301643 CCA *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-301900- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1243 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO NOW DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CHANGED. THERE IS NOW NEW STORM INFORMATION AVAILABLE. MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY ALL PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF SAVANNAH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ERNESTO IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING TODAY WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND. ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY NEAR HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY AND CAPE ROMAIN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSES TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WINDS... WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 22 HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 7 INCHES. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. YOU ARE STRONGLY URGED NOT TO GO INTO THE WATER. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ 33/REV ** WTPN31 PHNC 301600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/300935AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 101.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 101.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.6N 103.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.3N 105.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.0N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.3N 108.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.5N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 301600Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 102.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 28 FEET. AT 083012 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 138 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 301600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/300930AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 114.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 114.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.2N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 17.8N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 18.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.2N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 20.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 301600Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 115.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 12 FEET. AT 083012 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 873 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 301713 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 81.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2006 25.3N 81.3W MODERATE 00UTC 31.08.2006 27.6N 80.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 30.6N 79.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.5N 78.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 34.8N 77.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 35.9N 77.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 37.4N 78.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 101.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2006 16.0N 101.7W STRONG 00UTC 31.08.2006 16.8N 103.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 17.5N 104.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 18.5N 105.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 19.2N 105.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 19.9N 106.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 115.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2006 16.3N 115.5W WEAK 00UTC 31.08.2006 16.7N 115.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 17.5N 116.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 18.5N 117.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 19.2N 119.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 20.1N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 20.5N 120.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 20.7N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 20.4N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.6N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2006 11.6N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 31.08.2006 10.3N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 10.4N 70.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 10.1N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 11.3N 71.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2006 11.5N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 11.6N 73.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2006 11.5N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 11.5N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 8.5N 81.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 9.4N 87.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 16.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 12.2N 16.7W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2006 11.8N 19.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 12.7N 23.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 13.7N 25.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 14.7N 27.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 16.6N 29.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2006 18.5N 32.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 19.7N 35.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2006 21.6N 37.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301713 ** WTNT35 KNHC 301739 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ31 KNHC 301748 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES ...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RECENTLY AN OBSERVING STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO VICENTE...NEAR ZIHUATANEJO...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTCA45 TJSJ 301752 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 24A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE MUEVE SOBRE EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE Y NORESTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA HASTA CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ERNESTO SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.9 OESTE... SOBRE LA PORCION OESTE DEL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. ESTO ES COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE VERO BEACH FLORIDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CERCA DE 10 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CONTINUE HOY CON UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOR-NORESTE A LO LARGO DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DEBERA MOVERSE SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD MIENTRAS ERNESTO ESTE SOBRE TIERRA PERO PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION EL JUEVES CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE PUEDE ESPERAR MAREJADAS COSTERAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS EN AREAS CON UN FLUJO HACIA TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. ES POSIBLES QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS POSIBLES. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESDE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA REGION DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...26.9 NORTE...80.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA