** WTNT85 KNHC 300559 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO GAC029-051-179-191-NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC009-011-021-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039- 127-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-656-657-676-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ610-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 300616 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 22A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO ENTRA A TIERRA POR SEGUNDA VEZ SOBRE EL SUROESTE DE MIAMI... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE BONITA BEACH EN LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR...ALREDEDOR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...Y HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUYENDO TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN AL NORTE DE ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HASTA CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...SEGUN AL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO Y EL RADAR DOPPLER...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.7 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS...25 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE FLAMINGO FLORIDA Y COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. EN ESTA TAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PERMANEZCA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA POR EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DEBIDO AL CENTRO DE CIRCULACION QUE PERMANECE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...Y ERNESTO PUDIERA DEBILITARSE A DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. SIN EMBARGO...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA QUE COSNITENE VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS HASTA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUARAN MOVIENDOSE A TIERRA HOY EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO...ESPECIALMENTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1003...29.62 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS DURANTE LA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA HASTA HOY MIERCOLES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. LA HUMEDAD SE EXTENDERA HACIA EL NORTE BIEN DELANTE DE ERNESTO A TRAVES DE GEORGIA Y LAS CAROLINAS HOY. ESTO PUDIERA TRAER DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA TAN AL NORTE COMO VIRGINIA...EL SUR DE MARYLAND...Y EL SUR DE DELAWARE PARA EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...25.2 NORTE...80.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTIN20 DEMS 300615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTUS82 KTBW 300616 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-057-301000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 217 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... ERNESTO IS NOW ONSHORE ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE PLACID IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WINDS... RAIN BANDS CLOSE TO THE STORM CENTER MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH HIGHLANDS COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTH INTO POLK COUNTY BEFORE DAWN. ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...TORNADOES... AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS TODAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 5 AM. $$ JILLSON ** WTUS82 KILM 300628 *** HLSILM AMZ252-254-256-NCZ100-SCZ034-046-301000- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. WHILE THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INCREASING. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR BOATS. IF POSSIBLE...BOATS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE WATER AND MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR RELOCATING AIRCRAFT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK STORM...STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL...FAST MOVING...AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ III ** WTUS82 KKEY 300641 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE 200 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS AND RAINFALL INFORMATION TO INCLUDE RECENT REPORTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS PLACES THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SHORELINE OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOME 15 MILES EAST OF FLAMINGO, FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WHICH MEANS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER REMAINING OVER LATE...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB...OR 29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS. DO NOT VENTURE OUT UNLESS NECESSARY. KEYS SHELTERS REMAIN OPEN AND INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. ALL KEYS HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE TO BE CLOSED BY 1000 AM WEDNESDAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE DEACTIVATED BY NOON WEDNESDAY. THE KEYS AIRPORTS REMAIN CLOSED OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REOPEN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS REMAIN CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY WILL KEEP OFFICES CLOSED WEDNESDAY. TEACHERS AND STAFF ARE TO REPORT TO MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STUDENTS WILL NOT RESUME CLASSES UNTIL THURSDAY. CITY OF KEY WEST OFFICES WILL REOPEN WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS LODGING ENTITIES. CITY OF MARATHON AND ISLAMORADA OFFICES ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE OCCURRED AT MANY KEYS LOCATIONS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY...202 PM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...156 PM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...202 PM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 313 PM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... WIND GAUGES AROUND THE KEYS AREA CONTINUE TO REGISTER GUSTS AS HIGH AS 48 MPH AT MOLASSES REEF...43 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY...AND 38 MPH AT LONG KEY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN 1100 PM AND 200 AM RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THAT ONE-HALF TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE KEYS. SOME 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN ON LOWER KEYS LOCATIONS FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO RAMROD KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BE ALERT TO PONDING OF WATER ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AND ON LOCAL STREETS. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE AFFECTING THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BROCK ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 300600UTC 17.1N 170.6E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 310600UTC 18.6N 167.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 010600UTC 20.1N 163.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 020600UTC 21.8N 158.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 300600 *** WARNING 300600. WARNING VALID 310600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 17.1N 170.6E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 18.6N 167.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 20.1N 163.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.8N 158.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 300600 UTC 00HR 17.1N 170.6E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.8N 168.1E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 20.1N 164.3E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 21.7N 159.6E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTUS82 KCHS 300651 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-301100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 250 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE POSITION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPDATED. THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON...COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS WILL TAKE ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STORM WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND HEAD FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING... IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE PROJECTED TIMING WILL BE NEAR HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET WOULD GIVE STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE SO STORM TIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IF ANY HIGHER THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK BEFORE AND DURING LANDFALL WITH ERNESTO. THUS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE TORNADOES WOULD BE THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO... SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTUS82 KMFL 300658 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-301100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 258 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO ENTERS THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS. UPDATED INLAND FLOODING. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ERNESTO IS REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS IT TRACKS NORTH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS AND LIMIT TRAVEL TO ALL BUT EMERGENCIES TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AFFECTS THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR TODAY AS RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... EFFECTS FROM STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. NEVERTHELESS...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 3 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY CAUSE MINIMAL FLOODING OF BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 14 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD JUST WEST OF THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. ...WINDS... OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH STILL POSSIBLE, AS RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE LOCAL TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...INLAND FLOODING... BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH, BEGINNING FROM MAINLAND MONROE AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE REMINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, HAVE FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. AS THE RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF ERNESTO'S CIRCULATION SPREAD NORTH TODAY, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FISHEATING CREEK IN GLADES COUNTY IS CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE FALL NORTH OF THE CREEK AS ERNESTO TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THE CREEK COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE FISHEATING CREEK CAMPSITE NEAR PALMDALE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT FOWEY ROCK CMAN STATION, 8 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY BISCAYNE, EARLIER THIS MORNING IN RAIN BANDS. WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF MIAMI DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES TODAY PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING BEGINNING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. MARINERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE BANDS THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE CHANCE IS BEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SOUTH AND EAST TO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ SANTOS ** WTKO20 RKSL 300600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 300600UTC 17.1N 170.6E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 310600UTC 19.0N 167.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 48HR POSITION 010600UTC 20.9N 163.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 72HR POSITION 020600UTC 22.4N 159.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS82 KMLB 300701 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 301000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 255 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... VOLUSIA...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CENTRAL FLORIDIANS SHOULD HAVE MADE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE MAIN HAZARDS OF CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ERNESTO BEFORE STARTING THEIR DAY...AND KEEP INFORMED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND BE READY TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION. ...WINDS... THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO WERE STILL NEAR 45 MPH... WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THAT ITS CENTER IS NOW OVER LAND. ERNESTO WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT REACHING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...OSCEOLA... ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND ALONG THE COAST AS RAINBANDS ROTATE ONSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 5 FOOT STORM TIDE ALONG MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE NORMAL EXPECTED HIGH TIDE. SOME BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...HOWEVER...SOME WAVE ACTION ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS COULD DAMAGE DOCKS AND BOATS. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE FLOOD WATCH INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE STORM CENTER. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. ...TORNADOES... THE TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 10 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND FLAGLER BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KMFL 300704 CCA *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-301100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 258 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO ENTERS THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... CORRECTED MARINE IMPACTS SECTION. UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS. UPDATED INLAND FLOODING. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ERNESTO IS REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS IT TRACKS NORTH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS AND LIMIT TRAVEL TO ALL BUT EMERGENCIES TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AFFECTS THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR TODAY AS RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... EFFECTS FROM STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. NEVERTHELESS...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 3 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY CAUSE MINIMAL FLOODING OF BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 14 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD JUST WEST OF THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. ...WINDS... OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH STILL POSSIBLE, AS RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE LOCAL TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...INLAND FLOODING... BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH, BEGINNING FROM MAINLAND MONROE AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES AND WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE REMINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, HAVE FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. AS THE RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF ERNESTO'S CIRCULATION SPREAD NORTH TODAY, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FISHEATING CREEK IN GLADES COUNTY IS CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE FALL NORTH OF THE CREEK AS ERNESTO TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THE CREEK COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE FISHEATING CREEK CAMPSITE NEAR PALMDALE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT FOWEY ROCK CMAN STATION, 8 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY BISCAYNE, EARLIER THIS MORNING IN RAIN BANDS. WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF MIAMI DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES TODAY PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. MARINERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE BANDS THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE CHANCE IS BEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SOUTH AND EAST TO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ SANTOS ** WTPQ30 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS82 KKEY 300712 AAA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE 200 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS AND RAINFALL INFORMATION TO INCLUDE RECENT REPORTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. THIS PLACES THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SHORELINE OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOME 15 MILES EAST OF FLAMINGO, FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WHICH MEANS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER REMAINING OVER LAND...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB...OR 29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS. DO NOT VENTURE OUT UNLESS NECESSARY. KEYS SHELTERS REMAIN OPEN AND INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. ALL KEYS HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE TO BE CLOSED BY 1000 AM WEDNESDAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE DEACTIVATED BY NOON WEDNESDAY. THE KEYS AIRPORTS REMAIN CLOSED OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REOPEN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS REMAIN CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY WILL KEEP OFFICES CLOSED WEDNESDAY. TEACHERS AND STAFF ARE TO REPORT TO MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STUDENTS WILL NOT RESUME CLASSES UNTIL THURSDAY. CITY OF KEY WEST OFFICES WILL REOPEN WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS LODGING ENTITIES. CITY OF MARATHON AND ISLAMORADA OFFICES ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE OCCURRED AT MANY KEYS LOCATIONS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY...202 PM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...156 PM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...202 PM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 313 PM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... WIND GAUGES AROUND THE KEYS AREA CONTINUE TO REGISTER GUSTS AS HIGH AS 48 MPH AT MOLASSES REEF...43 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY...AND 38 MPH AT LONG KEY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN 1100 PM AND 200 AM RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THAT ONE-HALF TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE KEYS. SOME 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN ON LOWER KEYS LOCATIONS FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO RAMROD KEY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BE ALERT TO PONDING OF WATER ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AND ON LOCAL STREETS. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE AFFECTING THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BROCK ** WTPN31 PGTW 300900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 042 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 170.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 170.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.9N 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 18.8N 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 19.7N 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.6N 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 22.4N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 24.0N 154.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.6N 151.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 170.2E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 300834 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR IN NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. RECENTLY A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION...AND WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.6 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT25 KNHC 300836 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.9W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.9W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 80.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.2N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.2N 79.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 78.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 41.5N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 80.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ22 KNHC 300844 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.7W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 114.7W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.0N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.7N 118.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 114.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTUS82 KJAX 300852 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-040-GAZ153-154-165-166-301500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 450 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...NEW INFORMATION... NO CHANGES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER...ST JOHNS...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDES MAY REACH THREE TO FOUR FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM TIDE VALUE IS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND ITS IMPACTS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER NORTHEASTER. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAIN WIND IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY NEAR THE LARGER LAKES OF EASTERN MARION...SOUTHEAST PUTNAM AND INLAND FLAGLER COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS RAINFALL WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY CHANGE IN TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND WOULD INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER BANDS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER. LOCAL INLETS MAY EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ SANDRIK/TRABERT ** WTPZ41 KNHC 300853 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 RADAR FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND IT APPEARS THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO A WARM SPOT HAS RE-APPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO JOHN AND IT SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A MUCH MORE ACCURATE MEASURE OF THE HURRICANE'S CURRENT STRENGTH. JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 300/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP JOHN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO ITS WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND BOTH TRACK JOHN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND UKMET THE TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED RIGHT OR CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE...ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WILL BRING THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO. BEYOND THREE DAYS THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS ASSUMED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF JOHN TO BEND THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING. BECAUSE INTENSIFICATION HAS CEASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...PERSISTENCE HAS BECOME LESS OF A POSITIVE FACTOR IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THEREFORE IT NOW KEEPS THE HURRICANE JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. HOWEVER...IT IS ASSUMED THAT JOHN HAS JUST COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND STRENGTHENING SHOULD RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO PREDICT A CATEGORY FOUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 15.6N 101.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 102.4W 110 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 104.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W 120 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 107.7W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W 105 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 300853 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.5N 102.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.0N 104.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.9N 107.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 60SE 60SW 65NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 60SE 60SW 65NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ31 KNHC 300857 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN-ROUTE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES ...210 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK...WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...101.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTCA45 TJSJ 300858 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO ENTRA A TIERRA POR SEGUNDA VEZ SOBRE EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA... ...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LLUVIAS FUERTES AFECTANDO LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...BAHIA DE LA FLORIDA Y EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA HA SIDO REEMPLAZADA POR UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...DESDE ALTAMAHA SOUND AL NORTE HACIA EL SUR DE DEL RIO SAVANNAH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE BONITA BEACH EN LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR...ALREDEDOR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...Y HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL RIO SAVANNAH...INCLUYENDO TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL RIO SAVANNAH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CAPE FEAR EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTE AVISO PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...SEGUN EL RADAR DOPPLER Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.9 OESTE O COMO AL NORESTE DE MONROE EN LA FLORIDA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...OESTE SUROESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA Y COOMO A 90 MILLAS...145 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DEL OESTE DE PALM BEACH FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. EN ESTA TAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO PERMANEZCA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA POR EL PROXIMO DIA O MAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DEBIDO AL CENTRO DE CIRCULACION QUE PERMANECE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...Y ERNESTO PUDIERA DEBILITARSE A DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. SIN EMBARGO...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA QUE COSNITENE VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS HASTA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUARAN MOVIENDOSE A TIERRA HOY EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO...ESPECIALMENTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 58 MPH EN LA ESTACION FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN Y LAS RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS HASTA VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HAN ESTADO OCURRIENDO EN LOS CAYOS MEDIOS Y ALTOS...Y SOBRE LAS PORCIONES DEL CENTRO Y SUR DE MIAMI Y LAS CIUDADES DE MONROE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE ES DE 1001...29.56 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA HASTA HOY MIERCOLES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. LA HUMEDAD SE EXTENDERA HACIA EL NORTE BIEN DELANTE DE ERNESTO A TRAVES DE GEORGIA Y LAS CAROLINAS HOY. ESTO PUDIERA TRAER DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA TAN AL NORTE COMO VIRGINIA...EL SUR DE MARYLAND...Y EL SUR DE DELAWARE PARA EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...25.6 NORTE...80.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTUS82 KTBW 300900 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-057-301300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER HIGHLANDS COUNTY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO POLK COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET STEADIER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL MOVE INTO HIGHLANDS COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE PLACID IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WINDS... RAIN BANDS CLOSE TO THE STORM CENTER MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS TODAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 8 AM. $$ JILLSON ** WTPQ31 PGUM 300902 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST WED AUG 30 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE STILL HEADED TOWARD WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 170.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 705 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO 425 MILES NORTH OF UTIRIK AND 640 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON VERY CLOSE TO WAKE ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 160 MPH...AND IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...17.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 170.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST THURSDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTNT85 KNHC 300906 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ GAC029-051-179-191-301500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ AMZ354-374-301500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060830T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W SAVANNAH-RIVER-GA 32.03N 80.86W $$ FLC009-011-021-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039- 127-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-656-657-676-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ610-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-301500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTNT45 KNHC 300907 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 RECONNAISSANCE DATA EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND 1003 MB PRESSURE JUST BEFORE ERNESTO MADE ITS SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA NEAR THE MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LINE. RECON ALSO FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. SINCE THEN...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FORM THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AT DOWN TO AT LEAST 1001 MB. ALSO...THE NWS MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED VELOCITIES OF 45-50 KT FROM 200 TO 3000 FEET ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND EXTENDING INLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE UPPER KEYS. A FEW SPOTS OF 55 KT WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED...AND THE FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION HAS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 KT ALONG WITH A 10-METER WIND EQUIVALENT OF 37-40 KT. BASE DON THIS DATA...THE INTENSITY OF ERNESTO WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/07. ERNESTO APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACKS. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FLORIDA TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ...AND EXIT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND DAYTONA BEACH. ANOTHER LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED AFTER THAT. IN 72-96 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH SHOULD ACT TO PULL ERNESTO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN IS MORE LEFT OF TRACK AND SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER THAT. ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER REMAIN OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD ALSO HOLD ONTO TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO RAINBANDS ALONG THE COAST CONTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...IT WILL BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE GULFSTREAM AND BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER WATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN...AND FOR THAT REASON THE FOR MAINTAINING THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING ERNESTO TO BE AT 79 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AGAIN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH BUT STILL INDICATIVE THAT IT COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS. AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR KEEPING ERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 72 HOURS AND FOR EXPANDING THE WIND FIELD FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 25.6N 80.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 27.2N 81.0W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 32.2N 79.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.9W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/0600Z 38.5N 78.7W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/0600Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 300920 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD-12E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND EXPANDED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KRISTY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/6...BASED ON A BLEND OF INFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT WIND DATA. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF 6-8 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED BETWEEN 120-130W LONGITUDE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CREATING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. KRISTY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C SSTS AND IN A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN THAT KRISTY IS A SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.5N 114.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 115.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 117.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 18.7N 118.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTUS82 KILM 300931 *** HLSILM AMZ252-254-256-NCZ100-SCZ034-046-301400- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 531 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR BOATS. IF POSSIBLE...BOATS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE WATER AND MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR RELOCATING AIRCRAFT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK STORM...STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL...FAST MOVING...AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ III ** WTUS82 KILM 300936 CCA *** HLSILM AMZ252-254-256-NCZ100-SCZ034-046-301400- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 531 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR BOATS. IF POSSIBLE...BOATS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE WATER AND MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR RELOCATING AIRCRAFT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK STORM...STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL...FAST MOVING...AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ III ** WTPN32 PHNC 301000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/300930AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 114.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.0N 115.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.6N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 18.2N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 18.7N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 301000Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 114.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 11 FEET. AT 083006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 851 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 300900UTC 17.3N 170.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 310900UTC 19.0N 167.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 010600UTC 20.1N 163.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 020600UTC 21.8N 158.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 300900 *** WARNING 300900. WARNING VALID 310900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 17.3N 170.2E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310900UTC AT 19.0N 167.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KMFL 300942 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-301200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 542 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE EVERGLADES TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION, WINDS, INLAND FLOODING, MARINE IMPACTS, TORNADO IMPACTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 45 MILES WEST OF MIAMI, 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH, OR 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH PRIMARILY OVER MARINE AREAS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO REMAINS OVER LAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF DOWNED POWER LINES ARE ENCOUNTERED, STAY FAR AWAY UNTIL AUTHORITIES CAN SHUT OFF POWER AND SECURE THE DOWNED LINE. IF POWER LINES ARE ENTANGLED IN DOWNED TREES, KEEP FAR AWAY UNTIL PROPERLY TRAINED EXPERTS CAN ADDRESS THE SITUATION. NEVER USE CHAIN SAWS ON TREES THAT HAVE POWER LINES ENTANGLED IN THEM. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM SURGE EFFECTS WITH ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.2 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A MINIMAL STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 13 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WILL AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LAKE, WHICH WILL LOCALLY HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. ...WINDS... ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. LESSER WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST SO FAR WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT AT ABOUT 3 AM EDT WITH 58 MPH. THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OVER LAND SO FAR WAS REPORTED AT FLAMINGO IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK WITH 47 MPH AT 527 AM EDT AND AT POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT WITH 40 MPH AT 437 AM EDT. SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT 5 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED FROM ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS METRO COLLIER. MAXIMUM DOPPLER ESTIMATED RAINFALL FROM ERNESTO RANGES AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES OVER UNINHABITED EVERGLADES AREAS OF WESTERN BROWARD AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTIES AND UP TO 6 INCHES ON CAPE SABLE IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. HIGHEST REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY 5 AM INCLUDED ALMOST AN INCH AND TWO THIRDS AT COOPER CITY /1.58/ AND DEEP LAKE STRAND IN THE BIG CYPRESS REFUGE /1.66/. IN SPITE OF THE RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT, HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH. AN ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNT TO 10 INCHES IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED SEVERAL TIMES OVERNIGHT AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT, 8 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY BISCAYNE. WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE, GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY IN SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TODAY. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF A TORNADO WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 8 AM EDT. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KKEY 300947 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-301230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 545 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE 500 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WATCHES/WARNING INFORMATION TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH. UPDATED WINDS AND RAINFALL INFORMATION TO INCLUDE RECENT REPORTS. TORNADO INFORMATION HAS BEEN DELETED SINCE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE MAINLY A THREAT TO THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH WHICH HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. THIS PLACES THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION INLAND OVER MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA... SOME 55 MILES NORTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS...OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WHICH MEANS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER REMAINING OVER LAND...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WARNING AREA TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KEYS TODAY... MAINLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS IN PASSING SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS. BE EXTRA CAREFUL IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT EARLY TODAY. KEYS SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO BE CLOSED BY 10 AM. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE DEACTIVATED BY NOON. KEYS AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-OPEN SOMETIME TODAY. CALL YOUR AIR CARRIER FOR SPECIFIC FLIGHT INFORMATION. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS REMAIN CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY WILL KEEP OFFICES CLOSED TODAY. TEACHERS AND STAFF ARE TO REPORT TO MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STUDENTS WILL NOT RESUME CLASSES UNTIL THURSDAY. CITY OF KEY WEST OFFICES WILL REOPEN WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS LODGING ENTITIES. CITY OF MARATHON AND ISLAMORADA OFFICES ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR ON SOME BAY AND GULF SIDE LOCATIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TODAY...202 PM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...156 PM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...202 PM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 313 PM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... WIND GAUGES AROUND THE KEYS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE REGISTERED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 MPH AT LONG KEY...44 MPH AT MOLASSES REEF... 41 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY...AND 35 MPH AT VACA KEY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE KEYS AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ON THE KEYS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES...HOWEVER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ON LOWER KEYS LOCATIONS FROM THE TORCH KEYS TO CUDJOE KEY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KEYS HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS SHIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON KEYS ISLANDS TODAY IN QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BROCK ** WTUS82 KMLB 300948 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 301600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 545 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS...THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... VOLUSIA...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CENTRAL FLORIDIANS SHOULD NOW BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...WITH PARTICULAR ATTENTION GIVEN TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER SITUATION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD OR TORNADO WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA. ...WINDS... THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO WERE STILL NEAR 45 MPH. IMPORTANTLY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE CENTER WILL SPEND MOST OF THE DAY OVER LAND. IN FACT...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA. OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AFFECTING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE... AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND ALONG THE COAST AS RAINBANDS ROTATE ONSHORE. LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND THAT ARE AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND COAST...WILL HAVE LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADD 1 TO 2 FEET TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...HOWEVER... SOME WAVE ACTION ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT DOCKS. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND FLAGLER BEACH TONIGHT. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS IN SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 10 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND FLAGLER BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KCHS 300959 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-301400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 559 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WIND IMPACTS AND INLAND WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SAVANNAH. THIS INCLUDES CHATHAM...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAVANNAH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON...COLLETON... BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST SOUTH WEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 PM. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND HEAD FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ONCE THE STORM MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING... IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DURING MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR HIGH TIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHICH WILL CAUSE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS WILL YIELD STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SURGE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR THE BULLS BAY AND CAPE ROMAIN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM PASSES TO THE E. AS A RESULT...STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BEAUFORT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY. IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN DORCHESTER...BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 7 INCHES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HINESVILLE TO LUDOWICI LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LTE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTPN31 PHNC 301000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/300935AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 100.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 101.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.5N 102.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 18.0N 104.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 19.5N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.9N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 22.2N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.8N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 301000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 101.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. AT 083006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 108 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 301145 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTUS82 KTBW 301152 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-057-301600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE PLACID IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 8 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WINDS... RAIN BANDS CLOSE TO THE STORM CENTER MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS TODAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN AROUND 11 AM. $$ NOAH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 301157 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS CATEGORY-THREE INTENSITY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES ...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...70 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB