** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KILM 300007 *** HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034- 039-046-300400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 806 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN...HORRY...WILLIAMSBURG...MARION...DILLON... FLORENCE...DARLINGTON...AND MARLBORO. AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER... COLUMBUS...BLADEN...AND ROBESON. ...WATCHES... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THE STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT ERNESTO MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS LIVING IN THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. REFER TO YOUR PLAN FOR ACTIONS DURING A WEAK HURRICANE. KEEP A SUPPLY OF NONPERISHABLE FOODS AND MEDICATIONS AT THE READY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK STORM...STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL...FAST MOVING...AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS INLAND AREAS WINDS OF 40 MPH WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH. HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR WHICH COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. $$ TRA ** WTUS82 KKEY 300014 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300330- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 810 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 800 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS ALSO 45 MILES EAST OF MARATHON...AND 90 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE LOWER KEYS. GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS...DO NOT VENTURE OUT UNLESS NECESSARY. KEYS SHELTERS REMAIN OPEN AND INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE KEYS AIRPORTS REMAIN CLOSED. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS REMAIN CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY WILL KEEP OFFICES CLOSED WEDNESDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL REMAIN CLOSED WEDNESDAY. CITY OFFICES WILL OPEN WEDNESDAY GIVEN ACCEPTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CITY EMPLOYEES SHOULD CALL THEIR SUPERVISOR FOR A FINAL DECISION. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...117 AM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...111 AM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...1240 AM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 151 AM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES AND ISLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE KEYS ARE REGISTERING GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH...MAINLY WITHIN RAINBANDS. MARINE REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS HAVE ALREADY RECORDED GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE LOWER KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND ONE INCH IN THE LOWER KEYS...ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES IN THE MIDDLE KEYS...AND TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE UPPER KEYS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AND ON LOCAL STREETS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ LK ** WTUS82 KTBW 300015 *** HLSTBW FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-300300- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 815 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA COAST... ...NEW INFORMATION... OUTER RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ARE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE JUST SOUTH OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. BANDS OF RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER LEE COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS...AND 255 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA BAY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND REACH THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SARASOTA... MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF SARASOTA...MANATEE...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE... DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WINDS... EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RAIN BANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN STRONGER SQUALLS BY LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WINDS WILL MOVE INTO DESOTO...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 17 IN CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...MOST OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND IN POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 27. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ALL STORM RELATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT STORM READY PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM. $$ EO ** WTUS82 KCHS 300015 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-300600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 815 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE STORM TRACK WILL CHANGE TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC AND HEAD FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TONIGHT. ONCE THE STORM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE PROJECTED TIMING WILL BE NEAR HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET WOULD GIVE STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING OF THE ISLANDS AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE SO STORM TIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IF ANY HIGHER THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY AS THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK BEFORE AND DURING LANDFALL WITH ERNESTO. THUS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE TORNADOES WOULD BE THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... FORTY TO 50 MILE PER HOUR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHEN THE STORM COMES ASHORE. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 11 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 300000 UTC 00HR 16.6N 171.3E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.1N 168.6E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 20.1N 165.3E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 22.0N 161.8E 910HPA 65M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 300000UTC 16.6N 171.3E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 310000UTC 18.2N 168.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 010000UTC 19.9N 165.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 020000UTC 21.7N 160.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 300000 *** WARNING 300000. WARNING VALID 310000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.6N 171.3E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 18.2N 168.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 19.9N 165.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 21.7N 160.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KMFL 300055 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-300430- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 854 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS. UPDATED INLAND FLOODING. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... ALL HURRICANE WATCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS AND LIMIT TRAVEL TO ALL BUT EMERGENCIES TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AFFECTS THE AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. PERSONS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND TOURISTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MARCO ISLAND. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS AND HOMES UNDER REPAIR IS IN EFFECT FOR IMMOKALEE, EVERGLADES CITY, CHOKOLOSKEE AND GOODLAND. IN-PLACE SHELTER IS RECOMMENDED FOR NAPLES, NORTH NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND. IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS WITH DAMAGED ROOFS, AS WELL AS LOW-LYING AREAS. SHELTERS HAVE OPENED AS OF 5 PM. SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... EFFECTS FROM STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. NEVERTHELESS... A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 3 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY CAUSE MINIMAL FLOODING OF BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 14 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. ...WINDS... OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...SUSTAINED WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH STILL POSSIBLE AS OUTER BANDS MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OVER WESTERN SECTIONS INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST, WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 30 TO 35 MPH LATER TONIGHT. OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH MAY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM NAPLES TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE LOCAL TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 80 TO 86 PERCENT OVER MIAMI- DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 70 TO 80 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 58 TO 65 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH RANGES FROM 28 TO 35 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 15 TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 7 TO 12 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND. ...INLAND FLOODING... BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND THIS AREA MAY MOVE ACROSS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. RAINS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THEY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FISHEATING CREEK IN GLADES COUNTY IS CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE, AND WITH THE FORECAST RAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE CREEK MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE FISHEATING CREEK CAMPSITE NEAR PALMDALE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY WHILE TAPERING OFF OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. MARINERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WITH ANY OF THE BANDS THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL BE MOST IMMINENT OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTCA45 TJSJ 300100 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 21A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO NO SE FORTALECE MIENTRAS SE ACERCA AL SUR DE LA FLORIDA...DESCONTINUADA LAS VIGILANCIAS... A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...TODAS LAS VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN SE HAN DESCONTINUADO. A LAS 9 PM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS DESCONTINUARA TODAS LAS VIGILANCIAS DE HURACANES EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE ENGLEWOOD EN LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR...ALREDEDOR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...Y HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUYENDO TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE ENGLEWOOD HASTA TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN AL NORTE DE ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HASTA CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.4 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS...25 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE ISLAMORADA FLORIDA Y COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. CON ESTA ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO ESTARA CRUZANDO LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE LA PROXIMA HORA O DOS Y LLEGANDO A LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA CERCA DE LA MEDIANOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 1004...29.65 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL CENTRO Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS HASTA EL MIERCOLES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SE ESPERAN SOBRE EL ESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS DURANTE EL ANOCHECER Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...24.8 NORTE...80.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KMLB 300102 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 300402- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 902 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN CANCELED. FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... VOLUSIA...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI.ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD USE THE REMAINING HOURS THIS EVENING TO PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE COAST RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE RAIN BANDS THAT WILL MOVE ON SHORE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. BRING IN LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...TOOLS...AND LAWN FURNITURE...WHICH MIGHT GET TOSSED ABOUT IN GUSTY WINDS. CHECK FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS FOR GOOD BATTERIES IN THE FEW AREAS WHERE POWER MAY GO OUT. RESIDENTS ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY SHOULD PREPARE BOATS AND DOCKS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ...WINDS... AT 8 PM...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO WERE STILL NEAR 45 MPH BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL SOON BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...REACHING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...ORANGE... SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND ALONG THE COAST AS RAINBANDS SPREAD ONSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A 4 TO 5 FOOT TIDE ALONG MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ONLY BE A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE THE NORMAL EXPECTED HIGH TIDE. BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SOME WAVE ACTION IN THE INTRACOASTAL COULD DAMAGE DOCKS AND BOATS. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE FLOOD WATCH INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE STORM CENTER. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING MARTIN...ST LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 2AM. OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY THE TORNADO THREAT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF ERNESTO. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WITH TROPICAL RAINBANDS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 10 FEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND FLAGLER BEACH. MARINERS SHOULD MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE ROUGH CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DAMAGING SOME BOATS AND DOCKS...ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DECKER ** WTPQ30 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 300245 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTO MALDONADO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES ...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.2 N...100.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 300245 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND ALSO FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTO MALDONADO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 101.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.2N 103.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.8N 105.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 107.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 300246 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 JOHN'S EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR NOW. THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A RELATIVE WARM SPOT VISIBLE IN RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE RESTRICTIONS OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND RAW DATA T-NUMBERS THAT REMAIN NEAR 115 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. INNER CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS JOHN TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS...HOWEVER SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER WATER JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 300/10 DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JOHN CONTINUING ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE... RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE...TAKING JOHN INLAND OVER MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION...THE EASTWARD TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE... AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THIS REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE EXISTS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO... RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDL SHOW LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN CONSIDERATION OF THE GFDL AND ECMWF BUT STILL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE LATER PERIODS...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED FARTHER WEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 15.2N 100.4W 100 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.0N 101.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 17.2N 103.7W 120 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 18.8N 105.7W 120 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.2N 107.6W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W 110 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT35 KNHC 300253 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO LINGERING JUST OFF OF PLANTATION KEY... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED NORTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS JUST A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT25 KNHC 300254 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED NORTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 80.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 80.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 80.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.6N 80.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.2N 80.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.8N 79.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 40.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 80.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT85 KNHC 300256 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO GAC029-051-179-191-NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC009-011-021-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039- 127-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-656-657-676-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ FLC015-027-071-300900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-300900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC057-081-103-115-300900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ830-853-873-300900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ AMZ610-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...TBW...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KKEY 300300 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300630- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 1100 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. RAINFALL AND WIND REPORTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST...JUST A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS ALSO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY MORNING. HE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS...DO NOT VENTURE OUT UNLESS NECESSARY. KEYS SHELTERS REMAIN OPEN AND INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. ALL KEYS HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE TO BE CLOSED BY 1000 AM WEDNESDAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE DEACTIVATED BY NOON WEDNESDAY. THE KEYS AIRPORTS REMAIN CLOSED OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REOPEN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS REMAIN CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY WILL KEEP OFFICES CLOSED WEDNESDAY. TEACHERS AND STAFF ARE TO REPORT TO MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STUDENTS WILL NOT RESUME CLASSES UNTIL THURSDAY. CITY OF KEY WEST OFFICES WILL REOPEN WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS LODGING ENTITIES. CITY OF MARATHON AND ISLAMORADA OFFICES ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...117 AM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...111 AM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...1240 AM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 151 AM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES AND ISLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE KEYS ARE REGISTERING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH...MAINLY WITHIN RAINBANDS. MARINE REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND ONE TO ONE AND HALF INCHES IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AND ON LOCAL STREETS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE AFFECTING THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO OVERNIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER ** WTUS82 KJAX 300302 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-040-GAZ153-154-165-166-300900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1007 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO LINGERING OVER THE UPPER KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... NO CHANGES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER...ST JOHNS...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDES MAY REACH THREE TO FOUR FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM TIDE VALUE IS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND ITS IMPACTS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO A WINTER NORTHEASTER. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAIN WIND IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY NEAR THE LARGER LAKES OF EASTERN MARION...SOUTHEAST PUTNAM AND INLAND FLAGLER COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS RAINFALL WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY CHANGE IN TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND WOULD INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER BANDS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER. LOCAL INLETS MAY EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ SANDRIK ** WTNT45 KNHC 300303 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT ERNESTO IS HOLDING STEADY WITH A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE OVER LAND SHORTLY...THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO MORE CHANCE FOR STRENGTHENING. SLOW DECAY IS THEN EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA...AND HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING OCCURS AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE IS LEFT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ERNESTO MAY BE GETTING SOME BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AT THAT TIME...AND THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR A CAROLINA'S LANDFALL IS ONLY REDUCED SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME. AN AIR FORCE FIX AND CENTER DROPSONDE INDICATE ERNESTO HAS NOT QUITE MADE LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 330/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 24.9N 80.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 26.6N 81.1W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0000Z 28.6N 80.8W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/1200Z 31.2N 80.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 33.8N 79.2W 55 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 02/0000Z 37.5N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 03/0000Z 40.0N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KMLB 300306 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 301000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1105 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN CANCELED. FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... VOLUSIA...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS JUST A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE COAST RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE RAIN BANDS THAT WILL MOVE ON SHORE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. BRING IN LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...TOOLS...AND LAWN FURNITURE...WHICH MIGHT GET TOSSED ABOUT IN GUSTY WINDS. CHECK FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS FOR GOOD BATTERIES IN THE FEW AREAS WHERE POWER MAY GO OUT. RESIDENTS ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY SHOULD PREPARE BOATS AND DOCKS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ...WINDS... AT 11 PM...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO WERE STILL NEAR 45 MPH BUT NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL SOON BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT... REACHING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INDIAN RIVER... BREVARD...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND ALONG THE COAST AS RAINBANDS SPREAD ONSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A 4 TO 5 FOOT TIDE ALONG MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE NORMAL EXPECTED HIGH TIDE. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SOME WAVE ACTION IN THE INTRACOASTAL COULD DAMAGE DOCKS AND BOATS. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE FLOOD WATCH INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE STORM CENTER. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING MARTIN...ST LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 2AM. A FEW RAINBANDS HAVE MOVED ON SHORE BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO INDICATION OF ROTATION. OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY THE TORNADO THREAT WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE COAST. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WITH TROPICAL RAINBANDS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 10 FEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND FLAGLER BEACH. MARINERS SHOULD MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE ROUGH CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DAMAGING SOME BOATS AND DOCKS...ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DECKER ** WTUS82 KTBW 300314 *** HLSTBW FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-300700- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1114 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SARASOTA...MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALSO...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LEE...CHARLOTTE...AND DESOTO COUNTIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FINALLY...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HARDEE COUNTY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HIGHLANDS AND POLK COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS...AND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA BAY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE... DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WINDS... SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER STRONGER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES AROUND DAWN AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES NORTHWARD...RAIN BANDS CLOSER TO THE STORM CENTER MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN RAIN BANDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 30 TO 35 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND IN POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 27. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE BY DAWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...TORNADOES... AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH THAN NORMAL SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ALL STORM RELATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY NOW AS GUSTY WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 AM. $$ JILLSON ** WTUS82 KCHS 300315 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-300800- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1115 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... ...NEW INFORMATION... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. INFORMATION ABOUT POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO LAKE MOULTRIE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES CHARLESTON...COLLETON...JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MCINTOSH...BRYAN...LIBERTY AND CHATHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT WHILE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STORM WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. ONCE THE STORM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE PROJECTED TIMING WILL BE NEAR HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET WOULD GIVE STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING OF THE ISLANDS AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE SO STORM TIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IF ANY HIGHER THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY AS THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK BEFORE AND DURING LANDFALL WITH ERNESTO. THUS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE TORNADOES WOULD BE THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST THURSDAY AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF WALTERBORO...SUMMERVILLE... MONCKS CORNER AND DANIEL ISLAND. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. MINOR DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO SOME STRUCTURES. PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE CAN EXPECT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ERNESTO CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE RESULTING LARGE WAVE ACTION FROM THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE DOCK AND PIER DAMAGE AROUND THE LAKESHORE. LARGE WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKESHORE FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MEANS THAT WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EROSION PRONE AREAS SUCH AS HUNTING ISLAND AND EDISTO BEACH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 3 AM OR SOONER CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. $$ ST ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 300300UTC 16.9N 170.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 310300UTC 18.5N 167.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 010000UTC 19.9N 165.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 020000UTC 21.7N 160.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 300300 *** WARNING 300300. WARNING VALID 310300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.9N 170.9E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 18.5N 167.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 300400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 100.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 100.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.0N 101.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.2N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 18.8N 105.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.2N 107.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 21.8N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 22.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 300400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 100.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 27 FEET. AT 300000Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 100 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.// ** WTUS82 KMFL 300347 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-301100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1145 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS. UPDATED INLAND FLOODING. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS AND LIMIT TRAVEL TO ALL BUT EMERGENCIES TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AFFECTS THE AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. PERSONS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... EFFECTS FROM STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. NEVERTHELESS...A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 3 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY CAUSE MINIMAL FLOODING OF BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 14 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD JUST WEST OF THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. ...WINDS... OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH STILL POSSIBLE, AS OUTER BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER WESTERN SECTIONS INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST, WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH MAY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM NAPLES TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE LOCAL TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...INLAND FLOODING... BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND THIS AREA MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. RAINS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THEY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FISHEATING CREEK IN GLADES COUNTY IS CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE FALL NORTH OF THE CREEK AS ERNESTO TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THE CREEK COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE FISHEATING CREEK CAMPSITE NEAR PALMDALE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY WHILE TAPERING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. MARINERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY OF THE BANDS THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL BE MOST IMMINENT OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ SANTOS ** WTCA45 TJSJ 300349 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO PERSISTIENDO JUSTO FUERA DE PLANTATION KEY... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...SE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH EN LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA... Y TAMBIEN SE HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE ENGLEWOOD HASTA TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE BONITA BEACH EN LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR...ALREDEDOR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...Y HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUYENDO TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN AL NORTE DE ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HASTA CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.5 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS...25 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE KEY LARGO FLORIDA Y COMO A 65 MILLAS...105 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ESTA POSICION ESTA SOLO A VARIAS MILLAS AL SURESTE DE ISLAMORADA. DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS ERNESTO SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE ERNESTO LLEGUE A LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. DESPUES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO DEBE PERMANECER SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA POR EL PROXIMO O LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DESPUES QUE EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...Y ERNESTO PUDIERA DEBILITARSE EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1004...29.65 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN AREAS CON CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA...DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS DURANTE LA NOCHE. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MIERCOLES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. LA HUMEDAD SE EXTENDERA HACIA EL NORTE BIEN DELANTE DE ERNESTO A TRAVES DE GEORGIA Y LAS CAROLINAS EL MIERCOLES. ESTO PUDIERA TRAER DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA TAN AL NORTE COMO VIRGINIA...EL SUR DE MARYLAND...Y EL SUR DE DELAWARE PARA EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...24.9 NORTE...80.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KILM 300402 *** HLSILM AMZ252-254-256-NCZ100-SCZ034-046-310415- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1202 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... THIS STATEMENT UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE HURRICANE WATCH...AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGETOWN AND HORRY AND IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... BRUNSWICK ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. WHILE THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INCREASING. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERNESTO IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERY HOUSEHOLD SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS NOW TO SECURE THEIR BOATS. IF POSSIBLE...BOATS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE WATER AND MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR RELOCATING AIRCRAFT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK STORM...STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE TIDE BY UP TO THREE FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY END FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RAPIDLY RISE IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES. TORNADOES IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY SMALL...FAST MOVING...AND DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. KEEP A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO NEARBY TO WARN YOU OF APPROACHING HAZARDS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY BECOME HIGH ALONG ALL THE AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN PULL EVEN EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SURF OF 2 TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY...AND TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ III ** WTPZ42 KNHC 300419 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1000 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING THE 26C ISOTHERM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF AN WELL-DEFINED CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/4. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS WITH HURRICANE JOHN COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LINE WITH THE DEEP BAM MODEL. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH JOHN...GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0500Z 16.2N 114.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.4N 114.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 17.9N 116.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 18.8N 117.9W 40 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 300419 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 0500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.2W AT 30/0500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.2W AT 30/0500Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.4N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.8N 117.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPQ31 PGUM 300445 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST WED AUG 30 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS WAKE ISLAND... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 170.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 670 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK AND 660 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING IOKE VERY CLOSE TO WAKE ISLAND LATE THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 160 MPH...AND IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 170.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 300515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 80.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.08.2006 24.6N 80.2W MODERATE 12UTC 30.08.2006 26.4N 81.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 28.6N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 31.6N 79.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.7N 78.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 35.4N 77.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 36.8N 78.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 39.0N 80.5W EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 100.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.08.2006 14.8N 100.3W MODERATE 12UTC 30.08.2006 15.2N 101.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 16.8N 102.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 17.9N 103.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 19.0N 105.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 20.0N 106.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 21.5N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 21.6N 108.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 21.9N 109.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 22.3N 109.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.8N 19.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2006 13.8N 19.0W MODERATE 12UTC 02.09.2006 14.4N 21.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 15.9N 25.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 16.8N 28.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 17.9N 31.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 18.9N 33.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2006 20.1N 36.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300515 ** WTPN32 PHNC 300600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/292251AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 114.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 114.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.4N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.9N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 17.4N 115.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.9N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.8N 117.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 505 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 300400Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 114.2W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 292252Z AUG 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 292300 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 10 FEET. AT 300000Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 813 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 041 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 171.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 171.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.3N 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 18.2N 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.4N 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.6N 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.7N 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.0N 155.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.3N 152.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 170.9E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 292200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 99.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 99.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.0N 101.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.0N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.3N 104.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 18.8N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.0N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 22.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 292200Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 100.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 144 NM S OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.// ** WTPN22 PGTW 292300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 292252Z AUG 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 113.5W TO 17.8N 115.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 291730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 113.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 16.2N 113.7W, APPROX- IMATELY 215 NM SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291624Z SSMI/S PASS SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOP- MENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 302300Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 300555 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ...ERNESTO MAKES SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...EAST OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ31 KNHC 300557 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN STILL MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING ACAPULCO AND THE MEXICAN RIVIERA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTO MALDONADO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES ...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOHN AND PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...15.3 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART