** WTUS82 KKEY 291800 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-292130- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 200 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED TO INDICATE DETERIORATING DRIVING CONDITIONS. INCLUDED RECENT WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY...TONIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO...AND 135 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE KEYS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB...OR 29.77 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY APPROACHING THE KEYS FROM THE OUTER EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WILL ARRIVE IN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM...AS HIGH WINDS IN SUDDEN SQUALLS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS...DO NOT VENTURE OUT UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE DESIGNATED HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. COMMERCIAL AIR TRAFFIC HAS ENDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. KEY WEST GREYHOUND BUS LINES HAS CEASED OPERATIONS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...1:17 AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...1:11 AM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...12:40 AM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 1:51 AM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES AND ISLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE KEYS ARE NOW REGISTERING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...MAINLY WITHIN RAINBANDS. THE MOLASSES REEF LIGHT AND SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT MARINE REPORTING STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...ARE NOW RECORDING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 77 PERCENT... AND 89 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 6 PERCENT IN KEY WEST AND 6 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/FUTTERMAN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 291826 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 20A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...BANDAS DE LLUVIA EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO ESPARCIENDOSE SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA...AUN SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA PLAYA NEW SMYRNA HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE...DESDE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS AL NORTE DE NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ALTAMAHA SOUND EN GEORGIA. PROBABLEMENTE UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL/O UN AVISO DE HURACAN SERA REQUERIDO PARA EL RESTO DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA Y PARA LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR MAS TARDE HOY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE PLAYA BONITA AL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD...Y CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL NORTE DE ENGLEWOOD HASTA TARPON SPRINGS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ANDROS ISLAND...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS ISLAS BIMINIS Y GRAND BAHAMA EN LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...SUR-SURESTE DE M IAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE DIRECCION GENERAL CONTINUE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTA ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. SINEMBARGO...LAS LLUVIAS Y LAS TURBONADAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTARAN LLEGANDO MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. REPORTES DE AVIONES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICARON UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 1008...29.77 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR LA TORMENTA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MARES EN AREAS DE FLUJO HACIA TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS HASTA EL MIERCOLES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SE ESPERAN SOBRE EL ESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADAS AISLADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CABOS AL ANOCHECER Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...23.9 N...79.7 O. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPERTY WUKONG 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 291800 UTC 00HR 16.5N 172.0E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.0N 168.6E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 19.8N 165.7E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 22.1N 162.6E 910HPA 65M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 291800 UTC 00HR 16.5N 172.0E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.0N 168.6E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 19.8N 165.7E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 22.1N 162.6E 910HPA 65M/S= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 291835 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 20A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...BANDAS DE LLUVIA EXTERIORES DE ERNESTO ESPARCIENDOSE SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA...AUN SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA PLAYA NEW SMYRNA HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE...DESDE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS AL NORTE DE NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ALTAMAHA SOUND EN GEORGIA. PROBABLEMENTE UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL/O UN AVISO DE HURACAN SERA REQUERIDO PARA EL RESTO DE LA COSTA DE GEORGIA Y PARA LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR MAS TARDE HOY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE PLAYA BONITA AL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD...Y CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL NORTE DE ENGLEWOOD HASTA TARPON SPRINGS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ANDROS ISLAND...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS ISLAS BIMINIS Y GRAND BAHAMA EN LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.7 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...SUR-SURESTE DE M IAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE DIRECCION GENERAL CONTINUE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTA ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. SINEMBARGO...LAS LLUVIAS Y LAS TURBONADAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTARAN LLEGANDO MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE A FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. REPORTES DE AVIONES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICARON UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 1008...29.77 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR LA TORMENTA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MARES EN AREAS DE FLUJO HACIA TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS HASTA EL MIERCOLES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SE ESPERAN SOBRE EL ESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADAS AISLADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CABOS AL ANOCHECER Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...23.9 N...79.7 O. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTUS82 KMFL 291840 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-292230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER SQUALLS OF ERNESTO RAPIDLY APPROACHING MOVING THROUGH THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED EVACUATION INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS. UPDATED PROBABILITIES. UPDATED INLAND FLOODING. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED TORNADOES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE BETWEEN CAPE SABLE AND HOMESTEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BECAUSE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE, BY THE TIME HE MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NO LATER THAN MID-AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE ARRIVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LYING AREAS, MOBILE HOMES AND UNSAFE STRUCTURES. EVACUATION IS VOLUNTARY FOR RESIDENTS IN ZONE A, AS WELL AS FOR THOSE LIVING IN HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOMES OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS, AND FOR THOSE LIVING IN DAMAGED HOMES OR HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE. IN PALM BEACH COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND TOURISTS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS FOR MOBILE HOMES, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS AND HOMES UNDER REPAIR WILL BE MADE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS WITH DAMAGED ROOFS, AS WELL AS LOW-LYING AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING AROUND 5 PM. SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... THE EXTREME OUTER RAIN BANDS OF ERNESTO ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN EXCESS 35 MPH, AND FOWEY ROCKS LIGHTHOUSE SOUTH OF KEY BISCAYNE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 100 FEET. THESE OUTER BANDS WILL INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WILL AFFECT THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AS THE MAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE, AND BETWEEN 9 PM AND 1 AM TONIGHT OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 MPH OR GREATER, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND AROUND SUNRISE OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY. OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM, AND GLADES COUNTY INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 MPH OR GREATER WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE, AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH ERNESTO WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 80 TO 90 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, 75 TO 80 PERCENT ELSEWHERE EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO MOORE HAVEN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT TO THE WEST OF A EVERGLADES CITY TO MOORE HAVEN LINE, INCLUDING NAPLES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH RANGES FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, 25 TO 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE EAST OF A LINE FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO LABELLE TO WESTERN GLADES COUNTY, AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 4 TO 7 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY 8 PM, AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD MATCH FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING, SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATER TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FROM MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY EAST TO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND NORTHWARD OVER BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO APPROACH THE AREA. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTJP21 RJTD 291800 *** WARNING 291800. WARNING VALID 301800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.5N 171.9E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 17.9N 169.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 19.7N 166.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 21.6N 161.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 291800UTC 16.5N 171.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 301800UTC 17.9N 169.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 311800UTC 19.7N 166.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 011800UTC 21.6N 161.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 291800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 291800UTC 16.5N 171.9E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 925HPA 97KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 301800UTC 17.9N 169.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 97KT 48HR POSITION 311800UTC 19.9N 165.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 97KT 72HR POSITION 011800UTC 21.8N 161.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PHNC 291600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 98.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 99.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 14.8N 100.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.6N 102.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.7N 104.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 18.2N 106.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.5N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 291600Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 99.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 292100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 040 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 171.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 171.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.0N 170.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.8N 168.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 18.9N 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 20.2N 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 22.4N 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 23.9N 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 26.0N 152.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 171.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 292041 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 99.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 99.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.3N 104.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 292044 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HURRICANE JOHN IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...99.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTNT25 KNHC 292045 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 80.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 80.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N 79.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 43.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 80.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT45 KNHC 292045 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DURING THE DAY...ERNESTO BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED-LOOKING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING ON THE IMAGERY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED...AND THE FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WAS ROUGHLY COMMENSURATE WITH THE TYPICAL SEMI-DIURNAL PRESSURE CHANGE. IN OTHER WORDS...ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING. IT IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING WHY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED TODAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR MIGHT BE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND A WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT AS IMPLIED BY CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1500 AND 7500 FEET AS WELL AS WSR-88D RADAR. THERE IS STILL A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO GAIN SOME STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...BUT THAT WINDOW WILL SOON CLOSE. AFTER ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA COAST...THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...320/11...HAS CONTINUED. HOWEVER...THE HEADING IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS ERNESTO ROUNDS THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IN A DAY OR SO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD MOVE ERNESTO BACK INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.3N 80.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 32.5N 79.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 37.0N 78.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/1800Z 43.0N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT35 KNHC 292047 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...RAIN BANDS OF ERNESTO CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...EAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.3 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT85 KNHC 292049 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO GAC029-051-179-191-M3C30M-NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053- 300300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-350-352-354-374-300300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC021-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC015-027-071-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC057-081-103-115-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ830-853-873-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC009-011-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039-127- 300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ610-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...TBW...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTPZ41 KNHC 292057 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 JOHN HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND A PINHOLE EYE IS NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 24 HOURS AGO THE CYCLONE WAS A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 100 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE LIMITED TO DATA T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 OR 90 KT DUE TO RESTRICTIONS IN THE TECHNIQUE...BUT RAW DATA T-NUMBERS GIVE ESTIMATES CLOSER TO 6.0 OR 115 KT. THERE ARE NO APPARENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH MAKES JOHN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND STILL FORECAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE FARTHER EAST ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TAKE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK RESULTING FROM A STRONGER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU CLOSELY. THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN AND A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ONCE AGAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 14.4N 99.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.1W 115 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W 120 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 104.8W 120 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 18.8N 106.8W 115 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTUS82 KTBW 292100 *** HLSTBW FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-300300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...NEW INFORMATION... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE... DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS...AND 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA BAY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SARASOTA... MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF SARASOTA...MANATEE...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WINDS... EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RAIN BANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN STRONGER SQUALLS BY LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WINDS WILL MOVE INTO DESOTO...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 17 IN CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...MOST OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND IN POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 27. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ALL STORM RELATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT STORM READY PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND THUS THE THREAT FOR HIGHER WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR UPDATES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM. $$ EO ** WTNT85 KNHC 292112 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO GAC029-051-179-191-NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053- 300300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-350-352-354-374-300300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC021-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC015-027-071-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC057-081-103-115-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ830-853-873-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC009-011-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039-127- 300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ610-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...TBW...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTUS82 KKEY 292127 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300030- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 525 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 500 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. INCLUDED RECENT WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS ALSO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND 105 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM THE OUTER EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WILL ARRIVE IN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS...DO NOT VENTURE OUT UNLESS NECESSARY. KEYS SHELTERS REMAIN OPEN AND INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE KEYS AIRPORTS REMAIN CLOSED. KEY WEST GREYHOUND BUS LINES HAS CEASED OPERATIONS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. DECISIONS ON THE STATUS OF SCHOOLS...COUNTY...AND CITY OFFICES WILL BE MADE LATER THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...117 AM AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO...111 AM AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...1240 AM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...AND 151 AM AT KEY WEST HARBOR. ...WINDS... RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES AND ISLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE KEYS ARE NOW REGISTERING GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...MAINLY WITHIN RAINBANDS. MARINE REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS HAVE ALREADY RECORDED GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 55 KNOTS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AFFECT MOST OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AND ON LOCAL STREETS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 34 PERCENT... AND 74 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN MARATHON IS 7 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK ARE LOCKED DOWN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ LK ** WTUS82 KMLB 292135 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 300400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 534 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...RAIN BANDS FROM ERNESTO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE IN MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES... ...NEW INFORMATION... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING MARTIN...ST LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 2AM. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE LAKE COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE... INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. FARTHER WEST...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA...ORANGE... SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE EFFICIENT USE OF THE REMAINING HOURS THIS EVENING TO PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEAR THE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL HURRICANE WIND GUSTS. PERSONS IN MOBILE HOMES...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED...SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER PLACE. BRING IN LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...TOOLS...AND LAWN FURNITURE...WHICH MIGHT GET TOSSED ABOUT IN GUSTY WINDS. PERFORM A BATTERY CHECK ON FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS...ESPECIALLY YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. RESIDENTS ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY SHOULD PREPARE BOATS AND DOCKS FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ...WINDS... THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 45 MPH. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT ERNESTO WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 60 MPH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...REACHING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND ALONG THE COAST AS RAINBANDS SPREAD ONSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STORM SURGE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 2 TO 3 FEET IN A BRISK ONSHORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A 4 TO 6 FOOT TIDE ALONG MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE THREAT OF LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 FEET IN SHELTERED AREAS EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CENTER PASSES WEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE LAKE COUNTY AND NOW INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE STORM CENTER. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING MARTIN...ST LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 2AM. OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY THE TORNADO THREAT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF ERNESTO. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WITH TROPICAL RAINBANDS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM THE ATLANTIC. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. A FEW HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 16 FEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND FLAGLER BEACH. MARINERS SHOULD MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DAMAGING SOME BOATS AND DOCKS...ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DECKER ** WTCA45 TJSJ 292138 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...BANDAS DE LLUVIA DE ERNESTO CONTINUAN SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE NEW SMYRNA BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE...DESDE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD...Y CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE ENGLEWOOD HASTA TARPON SPRINGS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS AL NORTE DE NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA HASTA ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS AL NORTE DE ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HASTA CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 80.2 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTA ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS Y TURBONADAS CON VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTARAN LLEGANDO MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. TODAVIA ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 1005...29.68 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN AREAS DE CORRIENTE HACIA TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ERNESTO SOBRE EL CENTRO Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS HASTA EL MIERCOLES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SE ESPERAN SOBRE EL ESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS AL ANOCHECER Y ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...24.3 NORTE...80.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTUS82 KJAX 292141 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-040-GAZ153-154-165-166-300300- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 540 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LITTLE CHANGE... ...NEW INFORMATION... FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER...ST JOHNS...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FOR FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTH OF MAYPORT FLORIDA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THOSE ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDES MAY REACH THREE TO FOUR FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM TIDE VALUE IS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SIMILAR TO A STRONG NORTHEASTER. ...WINDS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRIEFLY REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS. ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND GEORGIA BEACHES WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY NEAR THE LARGER LAKES OF EASTERN MARION...SOUTHEAST PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS RAINFALL WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY CHANGE IN TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND WOULD INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER BANDS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM THIS EVENING. $$ SANDRIK ** WTPQ31 PGUM 292143 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST WED AUG 30 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE INTENSIFIES... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 171.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 650 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO 390 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK AND 690 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING IOKE VERY CLOSE TO WAKE ISLAND LATE THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 160 MPH...AND IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 171.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTUS82 KMFL 292146 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-300430- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 546 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...BANDS FROM ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS. UPDATED PROBABILITIES. UPDATED INLAND FLOODING. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED TORNADOES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 8 PM AND THE CENTER WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE, AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS AND LIMIT TRAVEL TO ALL BUT EMERGENCIES TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AFFECTS THE AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. PERSONS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW- LYING AREAS, MOBILE HOMES AND UNSAFE STRUCTURES. EVACUATION IS VOLUNTARY FOR RESIDENTS IN ZONE A, AS WELL AS FOR THOSE LIVING IN HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOMES OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS, AND FOR THOSE LIVING IN DAMAGED HOMES OR HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND TOURISTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MARCO ISLAND. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS AND HOMES UNDER REPAIR IS IN EFFECT FOR IMMOKALEE, EVERGLADES CITY, CHOKOLOSKEE AND GOODLAND. IN-PLACE SHELTER IS RECOMMENDED FOR NAPLES, NORTH NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND. IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS WITH DAMAGED ROOFS, AS WELL AS LOW-LYING AREAS. SHELTERS HAVE OPENED AS OF 5 PM. SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. ...WINDS... RAIN BANDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST BEFORE SUNSET WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. THE RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 39 MPH AND GREATER, BEGINNING OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM, AND OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 TO 65 MPH, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND AROUND SUNRISE OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY. OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS EVENING, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM, AND GLADES COUNTY INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 TO 60 MPH, AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT REACH HURRICANE FORCE, WINDS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE, MAINLY TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SMALL TREES WILL LIKELY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS WILL BREAK OFF, DOWNING POWER LINES AND CAUSING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 80 TO 86 PERCENT OVER MIAMI- DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 70 TO 80 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 58 TO 65 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH RANGES FROM 28 TO 35 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 15 TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 7 TO 12 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY 8 PM, AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE BANDS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FEET. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. MARINERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WITH ANY OF THE BANDS THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL BE MOST IMMINENT OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTJP31 RJTD 292100 *** WARNING 292100. WARNING VALID 302100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.5N 171.5E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 18.1N 168.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 292100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 292100UTC 16.5N 171.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 302100UTC 18.1N 168.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 311800UTC 19.7N 166.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 011800UTC 21.6N 161.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTUS82 KCHS 292203 *** HLSCHS AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>051-300600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 603 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NORTH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE STORM TRACK WILL CHANGE TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC AND HEAD FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TONIGHT. ONCE THE STORM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE PROJECTED TIMING WILL BE NEAR HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET WOULD GIVE STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 9 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING OF THE ISLANDS AND IN THE CHARLESON HARBOR. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND BEAUFORT AND THE GEORGIA COAST...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE SO STORM TIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IF ANY HIGHER THAN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APRROACHES THE COAST. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY AS THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK BEFORE AND DURING LANDFALL WITH ERNESTO. THUS...THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE TORNADOES WOULD BE THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... FORTY TO 50 MILE PER HOUR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROINA WHEN THE STORM COMES ASHORE. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WITH SOME SEVERE EROSION EXPECTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 11 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ERNESTO CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION WHEN A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM THREATENS. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE ONE...NOW IS THE TIME TO FORMULATE ONE. DETERMINE WHAT THE EVACUATION ROUTES ARE IN YOUR AREA. IF YOU DO NOT EVACUATE...DETERMINE PLACES TO MEET SHOULD YOU AND YOUR GROUP BECOME SEPARATED. RESIDENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD PREPARE NOW TO RELOCATE FURTHER INLAND...PREFERABLY TO STURDY HOMES OF FRIENDS OR RELATIVES. DO NOT BE ALONE DURING A HURRICANE. WHEN MAKING YOUR PLAN...GIVE FULL CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER YOU SHOULD LEAVE OR STAY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. IF YOU LIVE ON A BEACH OR BARRIER ISLAND...OR HAVE TO TRAVEL ACROSS TIDAL FLATS TO SAFETY...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF FLOODING...PLAN TO LEAVE. IF YOU LIVE ON HIGH GROUND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND TIDAL MARSHES...AND LIVE IN A STURDY HOME BUILT TO CODES...CONSIDER STAYING IN YOUR HOME IF YOU ARE NOT ASKED TO EVACUATE. FILL AUTOMOBILES WITH GAS. KEEP A SET OF TOOLS WITH YOU AT ALL TIMES. STORE LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND YARD FURNITURE. IF TIME ALLOWS...TRIM TREES FOR ROTTING OR DEAD LIMBS. HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF CASH ON HAND. FILL CLEAN CONTAINERS WITH WATER. PLAN ON AT LEAST ONE GALLON OF CLEAN WATER PER PERSON EACH DAY FOR DRINKING...IN ADDITION TO WATER NECESSARY FOR COOKING...CLEANING AND FLUSHING TOILETS. STOCK UP ON CANNED FOOD...ESPECIALLY FOOD THAT CAN BE EATEN WITHOUT BEING COOKED. HAVE A MANUAL CAN OPENER ON HAND. CHECK FOR ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION MEDICATIONS. MAKE SURE THAT YOU HAVE FIRST AID SUPPLIES AND TOILETRIES AVAILABLE. HAVE WORKABLE FLASHLIGHTS OR PORTABLE LANTERNS AND A BATTERY POWERED RADIO. HAVE A SUPPLY OF SPARE BATTERIES. USE BATTERY POWERED LIGHTS INSTEAD OF CANDLES TO PREVENT ACCIDENTALLY STARTING A FIRE. EMERGENCY PERSONNEL AND FIRE FIGHTERS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH YOU DURING THE STORM. IF YOU USE A PORTABLE POWER GENERATOR IN YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS BE CAREFUL. OBSERVE ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING...ELECTROCUTIONS OR A FIRE. PORTABLE GENERATORS SHOULD ONLY BE OPERATED OUTDOORS IN A DRY AND WELL VENTILATED AREA. IF POWER IS OFF FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...BE SURE APPLICATIONS SUCH AS IRONS...STOVES...WASHING MACHINES...DRYERS AND TELEVISIONS ARE TURNED OFF...BECAUSE WHEN THE POWER COMES BACK ON...THEY COULD BECOME FIRE HAZARDS. NURSING HOMES AND HOSPITALS SHOULD ACTIVATE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN OF ACTION. THOSE LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION FOR THE RELOCATION OF PATIENTS IF IT IS REQUIRED. ACT EARLY...EMERGENCY SERVICES AND RESCUE TEAMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ASSIST YOU LATER AS THE STORM APPROACHES. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO REMOVE THEIR BOATS FROM THE WATER OR SECURE THEM. IF POSSIBLE...BOATS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE WATER AND MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION. LIGHT BOATS LEFT IN A TRAILER OUTSIDE SHOULD HAVE THEIR SPRINGS CHOCKED WITH WOOD BLOCKS AND THE BOATS SHOULD BE PARTIALLY FILLED WITH WATER TO WEIGH THEM DOWN AND KEEP THEM FROM BLOWING AWAY. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR RELOCATING AIRCRAFT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. CHECK WITH SHELTERS TO SEE IF PETS ARE ALLOWED. MOST SHELTERS WILL NOT ALLOW PETS. MAKE PRIOR ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PETS. MAKE SURE THEY WILL HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATERS AS WELL AS PROPER IDENTIFICATION. $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 292252 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO GAC029-051-179-191-NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053- 300300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-300300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC021-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC015-027-071-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC057-081-103-115-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ830-853-873-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC009-011-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039-127- 300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ610-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...TBW...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTPZ31 KNHC 292332 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...14.9 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT35 KNHC 292354 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WATCHES IN FLORIDA DISCONTINUED... AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...ALL HURRICANE WATCHES FOR FLORIDA ARE DISCONTINUED. AT 9 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DISCONTINUE ALL HURRICANE WATCHES IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS...THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...24.8 N...80.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT85 KNHC 292358 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO GAC029-051-179-191--NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053- 300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC021-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC015-027-071-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC057-081-103-115-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ830-853-873-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-099-111-127-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ657-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC009-011-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039-127- 300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ610-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...TBW...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM... ** WTNT85 KNHC 292359 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO GAC029-051-179-191-NCC019-SCC013-019-029-043-051-053- 300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ AMZ252-254-256-330-350-352-354-374-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W CAPE-FEAR-NC 33.85N 77.97W $$ FLC021-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC015-027-071-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC057-081-103-115-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ830-853-873-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-099-111-127-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ657-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC009-011-031-035-061-085-086-087-089-099-109-111-127-GAC039-127- 300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671- GMZ033-657-300300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ610-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-300300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...CHS...KEY...TBW...MLB...MFL...JAX...ILM...