** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC 00HR 16.3N 172.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 169.4E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 19.8N 166.2E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 22.5N 163.1E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTUS82 KKEY 291231 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-291600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 800 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS TO INCLUDE A FLOOD WATCH. UPDATED STORM SURGE INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE LOWER KEYS. UPDATED WIND INFORMATION TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY...TONIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. COMMERCIAL AIR FLIGHTS HAVE ENDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM THIS MORNING...AND PASSES THROUGH KEY LARGO AT 11:25 AM. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AS WELL AS AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT...WILL CONTINUE FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM THIS MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON WILL BE AT 104 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 1240 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR WILL BE AT 215 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 151 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 42 PERCENT... AND 67 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT MARATHON IS 4 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM CUBAN WATERS AND THE CAY SAL BANK OVER WATERS OF THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST KEYS WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECISION WILL BE MADE TODAY WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/FUTTERMAN ** WTJP21 RJTD 291200 *** WARNING 291200. WARNING VALID 301200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.2N 172.6E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.6N 169.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 19.3N 167.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 21.5N 163.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 291200UTC 16.2N 172.6E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 301200UTC 17.6N 169.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 311200UTC 19.3N 167.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 011200UTC 21.5N 163.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 291252 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 19A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVIENDOSE SOBRE AGUA AL NORTE DE CUBA......SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA PLAYA NEW SMYRNA HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE...INCLUYENDO EL LAKE OKEECHOBEE...DESDE LA BONITA BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PUDIERA REQUERIRSE UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA TARDE ESTA MANANA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD EN LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA NEW SMYRNA BEACH EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y PARA GREAT EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA DESCONTINUADO TODOS LOS AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA CUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.3 OESTE O CERCA DEL OESTE DE CUBA...COMO A 200 MILLAS...320 KM...AL SURESTE DE CAYO HUESO FLORIDA Y COMO A 215 MILLAS...350 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTA TRAYECTORIA SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE PARA LAS 24 HORAS SIGUIENTES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA CERCA DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA O AL SURESTE DE FLORIDA AL ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...BANDAS DE TURBONADAS SE ESTARAN MOVIENDO HACIA TIERRA EN LA COSTA DURANTE LA TARDE. REPORTES DE AVIONES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICARON QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SUSTENIDOS CONTINUAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS...SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE CENTRAL DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PONDRIAN EN RIESGO VIDAS HUMANAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MIERCOLES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS HASTA DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES EN AREAS SOBRE TIERRA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM EDT...22.8 NORTE...79.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTUS82 KKEY 291307 CCA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-291600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 900 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 800 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS TO INCLUDE A FLOOD WATCH. UPDATED STORM SURGE INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE LOWER KEYS. UPDATED WIND INFORMATION TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY...TONIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. COMMERCIAL AIR FLIGHTS HAVE ENDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 8:45 AM THIS MORNING...AND PASSES THROUGH KEY LARGO AT 11:25 AM. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AS WELL AS AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT...WILL CONTINUE FROM 6:00 AM TO 10:00 AM THIS MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 1:16 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 1:17 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 1:10 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 1:11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON WILL BE AT 1:04 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 12:40 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR WILL BE AT 2:15 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 1:51 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 42 PERCENT... AND 67 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT MARATHON IS 4 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM CUBAN WATERS AND THE CAY SAL BANK OVER WATERS OF THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST KEYS WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECISION WILL BE MADE TODAY WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/FUTTERMAN ** WTNT35 KNHC 291431 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL BE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT25 KNHC 291432 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 79.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 79.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.4N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.3N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.9N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 39.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 43.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT45 KNHC 291454 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT...AND A NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING...IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION...AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION. THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. AFTER ERNESTO MOVES FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THUS FAR FROM LAND-BASED RADARS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THEN ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 23.3N 79.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 80.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 26.3N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.1W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1200Z 30.9N 80.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/1200Z 39.5N 79.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/1200Z 43.0N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ41 KNHC 291500 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE AND AN OBSCURED EYE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO APPARENT ON A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1156 UTC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AND 75 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF TWO AND IS SET AT 70 KT. JOHN IS NOW THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. JOHN IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES JOHN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LATER PERIODS...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS JOHN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF IT'S TRACK FORECAST TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THE HURRICANE OVER WATER THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE IN DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THE GFDL MODEL ANTICIPATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE FURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 99.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W 105 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W 105 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 291500 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...JOHN BECOMES THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... AT 8AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...AND FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...99.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 291500 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 8AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 8AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...AND FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 98.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTUS82 KJAX 291503 *** HLSJAX FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-040-GAZ153-154-165-166-292300- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1101 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TAKES THE STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK...YOU SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL STORMS IS OFTEN VERY DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF WELL DEVELOPED HURRICANES AND THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE OFTEN LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER LOCATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN AND GLYNN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FLAGLER...ST JOHNS... DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE FLAGLER COUNTY AREA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE GEORGIA COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOATS AND VULNERABLE PROPERTY ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE SECURED. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE STORM APPROACHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... TIDES MAY REACH ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WARNING AREA OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL SPREAD INTO THE GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS RAINFALL WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY CHANGE IN TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND WOULD INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER BANDS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER. LOCAL INLETS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING. $$ LETRO ** WTNT85 KNHC 291509 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC015-027-071-292100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-292100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC031-035-089-109-GAC039-127-292100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-292100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W ALTAMAHA-SOUND-GA 31.29N 81.29W $$ FLC009-011-021-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-292100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-656-657-676- 292100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC057-081-103-115-292100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1005.060829T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ GMZ830-853-873-292100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1005.060829T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W $$ AMZ610-292100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-292100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...JAX...KEY...TBW...MLB...MFL... ** WTUS82 KKEY 291518 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-291930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 1100 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO REMOVE EVACUATION WORDING. ADDED RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY...TONIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO...AND 165 SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS ARE PRESENTLY ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE JEWFISH AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT NOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE DESIGNATED HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. COMMERCIAL AIR TRAFFIC HAS ENDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. KEY WEST GREYHOUND BUS LINES HAS CEASED OPERATIONS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 1:16 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 1:17 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL WILL BE AT 1:10 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 1:11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON WILL BE AT 1:04 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 12:40 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR WILL BE AT 2:15 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 1:51 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT MOLASSES REEF MARINE OBSERVATION STATION. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 77 PERCENT... AND 89 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 6 PERCENT IN KEY WEST AND 6 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK WILL BE LOCKED DOWN AT NOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN OFFSHORE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING ALL KEYS WATERS BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KTBW 291525 *** HLSTBW FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-292130- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1125 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS...AND 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA BAY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SARASOTA... MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF SARASOTA...MANATEE...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THESE WATCHES COULD BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WINDS... EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH TODAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RAIN BANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN STRONGER SQUALLS BY LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WINDS WILL MOVE INTO DESOTO...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...MOST OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND IN POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT. ALL STORM RELATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT STORM READY PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY INTENSIFY TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE EVERGLADES. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND THUS THE THREAT FOR HIGHER WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR UPDATES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 515 PM. $$ EO ** WTUS82 KMLB 291539 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 292230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO OVER WATER AND NOW AIMING AT FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE... INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. FARTHER WEST...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA...ORANGE... SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE EFFICIENT USE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. NEAR THE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES SHOULD IMPLEMENT THEIR ACTION PLANS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM EVENT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND HEED THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS. PERSONS IN MOBILE HOMES...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED...SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER PLACE. BRING IN LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...TOOLS...AND LAWN FURNITURE...WHICH MIGHT GET TOSSED ABOUT IN GUSTY WINDS. PERFORM A BATTERY CHECK ON FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS...ESPECIALLY YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. MARINAS SHOULD ENSURE THAT ALL ARRANGEMENTS ARE MADE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR SMALL BOATERS. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST SITUATION TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY OCCUR. ...WINDS... THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 45 MPH. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ERNEST COULD BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT AND ERNESTO MOVES INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE RISK FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 MPH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...REACHING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND ALONG THE COAST AS RAINBANDS SPREAD ONSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 2 TO 3 FEET IN A BRISK ONSHORE FLOW. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FEET RISE WILL OCCUR...RESULTING IN A MODERATE THREAT OF LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RISES WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 FEET IN SHELTERED AREAS EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE STORM CENTER PASSES WEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 6 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A LOW TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. PRESENTLY...THE THREAT FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES APPEARS GREATEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. A FEW HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 16 FEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND FLAGLER BEACH. MARINERS SHOULD MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DAMAGING SOME BOATS AND DOCKS...ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPOSED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ SPRATT ** WTUS82 KTBW 291539 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-292130- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1125 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE PINELLAS COUNTY IN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS...AND 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA BAY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SARASOTA... MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF PINELLAS...SARASOTA...MANATEE...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THESE WATCHES COULD BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WINDS... EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH TODAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RAIN BANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN STRONGER SQUALLS BY LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WINDS WILL MOVE INTO DESOTO...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...MOST OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND IN POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT. ALL STORM RELATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT STORM READY PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY INTENSIFY TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE EVERGLADES. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND THUS THE THREAT FOR HIGHER WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR UPDATES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 515 PM. $$ EO ** WTJP31 RJTD 291500 *** WARNING 291500. WARNING VALID 301500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.3N 172.2E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 17.9N 169.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 291500UTC 16.3N 172.2E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 301500UTC 17.9N 169.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 311200UTC 19.3N 167.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 011200UTC 21.5N 163.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 291602 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST WED AUG 30 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE CONTINUES MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 172.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 645 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK AND 725 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING IOKE VERY CLOSE TO WAKE ISLAND LATE THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 MPH. IOKE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...16.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 172.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTUS82 KMFL 291607 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-292230- TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1207 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER SQUALLS OF ERNESTO RAPIDLY APPROACHING MOVING THROUGH THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED EVACUATION INFORMATION. UPDATED WINDS. UPDATED PROBABILITIES. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED TORNADOES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE BETWEEN CAPE SABLE AND HOMESTEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BECAUSE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE, BY THE TIME HE MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NO LATER THAN MID-AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE ARRIVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LYING AREAS, MOBILE HOMES AND UNSAFE STRUCTURES. EVACUATION IS VOLUNTARY FOR RESIDENTS IN ZONE A, AS WELL AS FOR THOSE LIVING IN HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOMES OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS, AND FOR THOSE LIVING IN DAMAGED HOMES OR HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE. IN PALM BEACH COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND TOURISTS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS FOR MOBILE HOMES, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS AND HOMES UNDER REPAIR WILL BE MADE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS WITH DAMAGED ROOFS, AS WELL AS LOW-LYING AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING AROUND 5 PM. SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... THE EXTREME OUTER RAIN BANDS OF ERNESTO ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS IN THE SQUALLS ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE, AND THESE BANDS WILL BE AFFECTING THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER EAST COAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM OVER BROWARD COUNTY, AND BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM TONIGHT OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 MPH OR GREATER WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER MIAMI- DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND AROUND SUNRISE OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY. OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM, AND GLADES COUNTY INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 MPH OR GREATER WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE, AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH ERNESTO WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 80 TO 90 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, 75 TO 80 PERCENT ELSEWHERE EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO MOORE HAVEN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT TO THE WEST OF A EVERGLADES CITY TO MOORE HAVEN LINE, INCLUDING NAPLES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH RANGES FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, 25 TO 35 PERCENT ELSEWHERE EAST OF A LINE FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO LABELLE TO WESTERN GLADES COUNTY, AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 4 TO 7 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS TIME, A MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SPIRAL BANDS. FIVE TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD MATCH FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, OUTER RAIN BANDS WITH WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTNT80 EGRR 291718 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 78.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2006 23.4N 78.9W MODERATE 00UTC 30.08.2006 24.5N 80.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 25.2N 81.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 28.2N 80.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 30.3N 79.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.9N 77.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 35.2N 77.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 36.1N 77.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 36.6N 79.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 39.5N 80.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 98.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2006 15.1N 98.2W WEAK 00UTC 30.08.2006 15.2N 100.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 15.5N 101.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 16.6N 102.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 17.7N 103.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 18.7N 104.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 19.6N 106.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.3N 17.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2006 13.3N 17.7W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2006 14.2N 21.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 14.9N 24.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 16.6N 28.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2006 18.2N 32.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2006 19.9N 35.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2006 20.9N 36.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291718 ** WTNT35 KNHC 291744 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO SPREADING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND/OR A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GEORGIA COAST AND FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 291752 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...AND FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.64 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTIN20 DEMS 291730 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSSED NORTH ORISSA COAST NEAR PARADIP AROUND 0700 UTC. IT LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY THE 29TH AUGUST 2006 NEAR LAT. 21.0 DEG N AND LONG 84.5 DEG E , ABOUT 100 KMS SOUTHEAST OF SAMBALPUR . THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYTEM. MSG OVER