** WTCA45 TJSJ 290614 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR DE LA COSTA ESTE...DESDE PLAYA BONITA HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD EN LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA NEW SMYRNA BEACH EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y PARA GREAT EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS Y CAMAGUEY. ESTE AVISO PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA PARA LA PARTE ESTE DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.3 OESTE O CERCA DEL OESTE DE CUBA...COMO A 20 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE CANAGUA. ESTA POSICION ES TAMBIEN COMO A 275 MILLAS...445 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CAYO HUESO FLORIDA Y COMO A 265 MILLAS...425 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA... EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA SOBRE EL AGUA TEMPRANO ESTA MANANA...Y CERCA DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA EL ANOCHECER. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DESPUES QUE ERNESTO SE MUEVA SOBRE EL ESTRECHO DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS...SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE CENTRAL DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MIERCOLES. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES EN AREAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...22.2 NORTE...78.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTUS82 KKEY 290619 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 215 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 200 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DEPARTED AND THE MAIN TERMINAL CLOSED AT MIDNIGHT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM ON TUESDAY. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AS WELL AS AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT...WILL CONTINUE FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE UPPER KEYS. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 51 PERCENT... AND 69 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 4 PERCENT...AND 6 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS LATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER STRAITS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. DRAW BRIDGES WILL FUNCTION NORMALLY TONIGHT...AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE TOMORROW WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THESE BRIDGES IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BROCK ** WTUS82 KTBW 290621 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-290930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 221 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN CUBA COAST BUT IS STILL DISORGANIZED... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 AM...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 78.3 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AND WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THESE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH. AT 1 AM EDT...A WIND GUST TO 28 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA IN A THUNDERSTORM WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK AND HARDEE COUNTIES. ...WINDS... BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM OUTER RAIN BANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. COASTAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT WINDS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 27 ON WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT SOME OF YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF IMPACTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 515 AM THIS MORNING. $$ BSG ** WTUS82 KTBW 290629 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-290930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 221 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CORRECTED TO ADD HIGHLANDS COUNTY TO THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. ...ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN CUBA COAST BUT IS STILL DISORGANIZED... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 2 AM...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 78.3 DEGREES WEST...OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AND WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THESE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH. AT 1 AM EDT...A WIND GUST TO 28 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA IN A THUNDERSTORM WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ...WINDS... BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM OUTER RAIN BANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. COASTAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT WINDS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 27 ON WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT SOME OF YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF IMPACTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 515 AM THIS MORNING. $$ BSG ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 16.2N 173.4E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 17.5N 170.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 310600UTC 19.3N 167.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 010600UTC 21.4N 164.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 290600 *** WARNING 290600. WARNING VALID 300600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.2N 173.4E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.5N 170.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 19.3N 167.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 21.4N 164.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 16.2N 173.5E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 17.2N 170.6E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 18.8N 168.0E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 20.8N 164.8E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 290600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 290600UTC 16.2N 173.4E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES/VMAX 925HPA 97KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 300600UTC 17.5N 170.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 97KT 48HR POSITION 310600UTC 19.3N 166.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 925HPA 97KT 72HR POSITION 010600UTC 21.3N 163.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 290600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,THE 29 AUGUST,2006 NEAR LAT 20.5 DEG N AND LONG.87.5 DEG E ABOUT 100 KMS EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHANDBALI.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ORISSA COAST BETWEEN BALASORE AND PURI BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW EARLY MORNING. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ORISSA NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEST BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ** WTNT25 KNHC 290831 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.8N 79.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.4N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.3N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.7N 80.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 79.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 42.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 78.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT85 KNHC 290837 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC021-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC009-127-291500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-570-291500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC011-061-085-086-087-099-111-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC015-027-071-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ610-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-291500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...MLB... ** WTNT35 KNHC 290840 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO BACK OVER WATER AND A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA EAST COAST... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES ...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... SQUALLY EAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 038 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 173.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 173.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.8N 171.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.5N 170.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.4N 168.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 19.6N 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.8N 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 24.5N 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 27.1N 155.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 173.0E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 290854 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 97.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 97.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.2N 98.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.8N 100.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.9N 104.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 97.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ31 KNHC 290858 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...JOHN NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...13.9 N...97.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTCA45 TJSJ 290858 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT MARTES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO DE NUEVO SOBRE AGUA Y UN POCO MAS FUERTE... ...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTENDIDO HACIA EL NORTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EXTENDIDO HACIA EL NORTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA HASTA LA PLAYA NEW SMYRNA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA PLAYA NEW SMYRNA HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HSTA DRY TORTUGAS. PUDIERA REQUERIRSE UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA TARDE ESTA MANANA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD EN LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA NEW SMYRNA BEACH EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y PARA GREAT EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS Y CAMAGUEY. ESTE AVISO PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA PARA LA PARTE ESTE DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.9 OESTE O CERCA DEL OESTE DE CUBA...COMO A 230 MILLAS...370 KM...AL SURESTE DE CAYO HUESO FLORIDA Y COMO A 235 MILLAS...380 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA... EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA CERCA DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...BANDAS DE TURBONADAS SE ESTARAN MOVIENDO A LA COSTA EN ESTAS AREAS DURANTE LA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y ES POSIBLE QUE ERNESTO ESTE CERCANO A TENER FUERZA DE HURACAN CUANDO TOQUE TIERRA A LO LARGO DEL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS...SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE CENTRAL DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MIERCOLES...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS HASTA DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES EN AREAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...22.6 NORTE...78.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPZ41 KNHC 290900 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH AN EXPANDING CDO OVER THE CENTER. IN FACT...A 0207 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A SMALL EYE FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. JOHN APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS JOHN BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATE IN THE FORECAST...AS JOHN APPROACHES COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING IS INDICATED BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/06. JOHN IS FORECAST CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IT CONTINUES TO SHOW JOHN PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS JOHN STRENGTHENS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 13.9N 97.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.2N 98.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.8N 100.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.4W 95 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 16.9N 104.4W 105 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 19.5N 108.3W 100 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTNT45 KNHC 290901 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND IS BACK OVER WATER. THE CENTER IS JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE BURST NOTED IN RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND ALSO IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 50-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA FOR PERMITTING THE RECON AIRCRAFT FLY RIGHT UP TO THEIR COASTLINE TO GATHER THIS CRITICAL WEATHER DATA. BASED ON THE RECON FIX INFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED NOW COURTESY OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AICRAFT DATA GETTING INTO THE MODELS. THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ERNESTO SHOULD RE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA AREA IN 60-72 HOURS. AFTER THE SECOND U.S. LANDFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE CAUGHT UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS NHC CONSENSUS MODEL FORECASTS. NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER...AT LEAST SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER... THE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO...SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 22.6N 78.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 23.8N 79.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 25.4N 80.7W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1800Z 27.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0600Z 29.7N 80.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 79.4W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0600Z 38.0N 79.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/0600Z 42.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT45 KNHC 290909 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE INTENSITY STATEMENT FOR SECOND U.S. LANDFALL AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND IS BACK OVER WATER. THE CENTER IS JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE BURST NOTED IN RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND ALSO IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 50-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA FOR PERMITTING THE RECON AIRCRAFT FLY RIGHT UP TO THEIR COASTLINE TO GATHER THIS CRITICAL WEATHER DATA. BASED ON THE RECON FIX INFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED NOW COURTESY OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DATA GETTING INTO THE MODELS. THEY ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ERNESTO SHOULD RE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA AREA IN 60-72 HOURS. AFTER THE SECOND U.S. LANDFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE CAUGHT UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS NHC CONSENSUS MODEL FORECASTS. NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER...AT LEAST SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER... THE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO...SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA. ALSO...AFTER ERNESTO RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND U.S. LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 22.6N 78.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 23.8N 79.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 25.4N 80.7W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1800Z 27.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0600Z 29.7N 80.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 79.4W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0600Z 38.0N 79.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 03/0600Z 42.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPQ31 PGUM 290915 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST TUE AUG 29 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE CONTINUES MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 173.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 645 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO 420 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK AND 770 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING AT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 MPH. IOKE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND FARTHER OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 173.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY. $$ MCELROY ** WTUS82 KTBW 290915 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-291530- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 515 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING OFF THE CUBA COAST AND BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY... ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 78.9 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...OR ABOUT 332 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. ERNESTO IS NOW MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45 MPH. JUST BEFORE 4 AM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 37 KNOTS...43 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THESE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATER THIS MORNING. ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE WARNINGS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SUNCOAST. ...WINDS... EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RAIN BANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN STRONGER SQUALLS BY LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WINDS WILL MOVE INTO DESOTO...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE IN MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...MOST OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND IN POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...INLAND FLOODING... OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT SOME OF YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE EVERGLADES. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THE IMPACTS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WOULD BE MARGINALLY GREATER. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND THUS THE THREAT FOR HIGHER WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR CONTINUING INFORMATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1115 AM THIS MORNING. $$ BSG ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 16.3N 173.0E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 17.7N 170.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 310600UTC 19.3N 167.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 010600UTC 21.4N 164.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 290900 *** WARNING 290900. WARNING VALID 300900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.3N 173.0E EASTSOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 17.7N 170.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KKEY 290947 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-291230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 545 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 500 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS TO INCLUDE A FLOOD WATCH. UPDATED STORM SURGE INFORMATION TO INCLUDE THE LOWER KEYS. UPDATED WIND INFORMATION TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY...TONIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. COMMERCIAL AIR FLIGHTS HAVE ENDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM THIS MORNING...AND PASSES THROUGH KEY LARGO AT 11:25 AM. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AS WELL AS AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT...WILL CONTINUE FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM THIS MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 42 PERCENT... AND 67 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT MARATHON IS 4 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM CUBAN WATERS AND THE CAY SAL BANK OVER WATERS OF THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND AFFECT MOST KEYS WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECISION WILL BE MADE TODAY WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THE BRIDGES AT JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTUS82 KMFL 290950 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 550 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...OUTER SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM SURGE INFORMATION IS UPDATED FOR THE NEW FORECAST PATH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPDATED FOR ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. WIND TIMING IS UPDATED. PRECAUTIONS ARE UPDATED. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT COMES ASHORE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT BECAUSE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE, BY THE TIME HE MAKES LANDFALL. STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER SHOULD ALREADY BE REPLENISHED AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. FINAL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING BECAUSE OUTER SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO SHOULD BE MOVING ONSHORE THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TODAY FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS, MOBILE HOMES, AND ANYONE WHO FEELS THE URGE TO LEAVE. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN LATER TODAY. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY, CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED AND MOBILE HOMES AND TIDAL AREAS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO LAKEPORT TO BUCKHEAD RIDGE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS, 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO WHICH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EXTREME SOUTH DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE BY MID MORNING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTH MIAMI-DADE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN SPREAD ACROSS BROWARD AND EASTERN COLLIER BY 3 AM AND INTO PALM BEACH, HENDRY, GLADES, AND THE LAKE REGION BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN COLLIER AROUND MIDNIGHT LASTING UNTIL MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO NEAR OR HURRICANE FORCE. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH COULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 60 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 5 TO 8 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS TIME, A MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SPIRAL BANDS. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD MATCH FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO POSSIBLY 18 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON EDT. $$ PFOST ** WTPN31 PHNC 291000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 97.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 97.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 14.2N 98.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 14.8N 100.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.7N 102.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.9N 104.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 19.5N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 21.0N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 291000Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 98.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 18 FEET. AT 290600Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 212 NM SE OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.// ** WTUS82 KMLB 291014 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 291600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 615 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO OVER WATER AND NOW AIMING AT FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. ALSO...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LOCATIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR INLAND SECTIONS...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA...ORANGE... SEMINOLE...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...WITH THIS MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS SHOULD MAKE EFFICIENT USE OF THE DAYTIME TO PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ALSO...NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SENSITIVE TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WITH AT LEAST HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES SHOULD NOW IMPLEMENT THEIR ACTION PLAN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM EVENT TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND HEED THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS. PERSONS IN MOBILE HOMES...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED...SHOULD CONSIDER MOVING TO A SAFER PLACE. BRING IN LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS...TOOLS...AND LAWN FURNITURE...WHICH MIGHT GET TOSSED ABOUT IN GUSTY WINDS. PERFORM A BATTERY CHECK ON FLASHLIGHTS AND RADIOS...ESPECIALLY YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. MARINAS SHOULD ENSURE THAT ALL ARRANGEMENTS ARE MADE FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR SMALL BOATERS. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST SITUATION TODAY AS THEIR IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. ...WINDS... THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ERNESTO ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 45 MPH. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. AFTER ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE RISK FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES NORTH. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS NEAR 75 MPH MAY OCCUR. IMPORTANTLY...THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO EXCEED 75 MPH IS SMALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA SPREADING STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE INTO MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO EASTERN OSCEOLA... BREVARD...EASTERN ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AND WITHIN RAINBANDS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES UP THE FLORIDA COAST...SURGE AND TIDE WATERS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 4 FEET IN A BRISK ONSHORE FLOW...BRINGING A MODERATE THREAT OF LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL MAINLY DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...THE THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURGE AND TIDE WATERS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS ARE A PARTICULAR CONCERN. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCLUDES INCLUDES ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FLOOD. SOME ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A LOW TO MODERATE TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. SO...THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. THE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE INITIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE PRECEDING RAINBANDS. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF VERO BEACH...SPREADING NORTHWARD TO AT LEAST NEW SMYRNA BEACH INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HURRICANE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN RAINBANDS AND NEAR THE CORE. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OUT OVER THE WATER BETWEEN PORT CANAVERAL AND FLAGLER BEACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE EVENT...SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUILD TO 16 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH. MARINERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO AND MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DAMAGING BOATS AND DOCKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.HTML $$ DWS ** WTUS82 KMFL 291039 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED CODING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 639 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM SURGE INFORMATION IS UPDATED FOR THE NEW FORECAST PATH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPDATED FOR ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. WIND TIMING IS UPDATED. PRECAUTIONS ARE UPDATED. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT COMES ASHORE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT BECAUSE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE, BY THE TIME HE MAKES LANDFALL. STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER SHOULD ALREADY BE REPLENISHED AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. FINAL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING BECAUSE OUTER SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO SHOULD BE MOVING ONSHORE THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TODAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TODAY FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS, MOBILE HOMES, AND ANYONE WHO FEELS THE URGE TO LEAVE. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN LATER TODAY. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY, CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED AND MOBILE HOMES AND TIDAL AREAS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO LAKEPORT TO BUCKHEAD RIDGE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS, 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO WHICH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EXTREME SOUTH DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE BY MID MORNING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTH MIAMI-DADE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN SPREAD ACROSS BROWARD AND EASTERN COLLIER BY 3 AM AND INTO PALM BEACH, HENDRY, GLADES, AND THE LAKE REGION BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN COLLIER AROUND MIDNIGHT LASTING UNTIL MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO NEAR OR HURRICANE FORCE. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH COULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 60 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 5 TO 8 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS TIME, A MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SPIRAL BANDS. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD MATCH FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO POSSIBLY 18 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON EDT. $$ PFOST ** WTNT35 KNHC 291150 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING OVER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH OF CUBA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR CUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 215 MILES ...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... SQUALLY RAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 291153 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...JOHN PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JOHN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...14.1 N...98.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTUS82 KMFL 291159 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 758 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...OUTER SQUALLS OF ERNESTO MOVING THROUGH THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... EVACUATION AND SHELTER INFORMATION UPDATED FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. STORM LOCATION INFORMATION UPDATED. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE BETWEEN CAPE SABLE AND HOMESTEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT BECAUSE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE, BY THE TIME HE MAKES LANDFALL. IN MIAMI-DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TODAY FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY, CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED AND MOBILE HOMES AND TIDAL AREAS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON. IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS WITH DAMAGED ROOFS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING AROUND 5 PM. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS, 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO WHICH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE EXTREME SOUTH DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE BY MID MORNING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE LAKE REGION BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 60 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 5 TO 8 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS TIME, A MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SPIRAL BANDS. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD MATCH FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING THAT LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON EDT. $$ PFOST