** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KTBW 290015 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-290400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 815 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT. NO CHANGES OR ADDITIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 455 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ...WINDS... BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ERNESTO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 27 ON WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AT THIS TIME AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1115 PM THIS EVENING. $$ PRC ** WTNT85 KNHC 290016 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC011-061-085-086-087-099-111-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-856-876-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ610-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...MLB... ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 16.1N 174.3E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 16.3N 170.8E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 18.0N 167.9E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 20.1N 164.5E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 290000 *** WARNING 290000. WARNING VALID 300000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.1N 174.3E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 17.0N 171.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 18.4N 167.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 20.3N 164.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 16.1N 174.3E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 17.0N 171.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 310000UTC 18.4N 167.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 010000UTC 20.3N 164.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTUS82 KMFL 290048 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-290500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 848 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE NORTH, INCLUDING THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY WHERE ONLY AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. HOWEVER, A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND ON THIS MOTION ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WIND 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY, ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED BEFORE SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, OR NO LATER THAN TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND LATE TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A TRAILER OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TUESDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, EVACUATION ORDERS FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED HOMES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THE LATEST TRACK ALSO HAS MOSTLY OFFSHORE WIND FOR THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO, BUT ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER, IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE, WHICH CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 70 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 27 TO 35 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND 17 TO 25 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 8 PERCENT OVER METRO EAST COAST LOCATIONS AND 5 TO 7 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ...INLAND FLOODING... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FEET. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. OVER THE COLLIER COUNTY WATERS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ SANTOS ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 290243 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...JOHN STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO AND TECOMAN. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS OVER REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...13.9 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 290244 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 97.3W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 97.3W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 97.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.8N 99.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 103.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.4N 108.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 97.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 290245 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. IN FACT...THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE MAY BE FORMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE UW-CIMSS RAW ADT VALUES BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. JOHN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A NEAR OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS JOHN BECOMING AT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRING JOHN CLOSE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/06 IS BASED ON A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE FIX AT 1937 UTC. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED AS JOHN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL BEING ON THE FAR RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND THE GFS BEING ON THE FAR LEFT OR WEST SIDE. THE GFS ANALYSIS OF JOHN APPEARS MUCH TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW...RESULTING IN A DUE WEST MOTION INITIALLY. THIS SOLUTION APPEARS LESS LIKELY...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JOHN PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO THE COAST AND THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.9N 97.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 99.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.5N 101.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 16.3N 103.4W 95 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 19.4N 108.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT25 KNHC 290249 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 77.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT35 KNHC 290249 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL OVER CUBA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND OVER CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES ...515 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT85 KNHC 290251 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC021-290900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-290900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060829T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060829T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC011-061-085-086-087-099-111-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC015-027-071-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ856-876-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ610-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...MLB... ** WTNT35 KNHC 290255 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CORRECTED WEDNESDAY TO TUESDAY IN TEXT ...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL OVER CUBA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND OVER CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES ...515 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KKEY 290259 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290630- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 1100 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DEPARTED AND THE MAIN TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT MIDNIGHT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM ON TUESDAY. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE UPPER KEYS ON THE BAYSIDE. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 51 PERCENT... AND 69 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 4 PERCENT...AND 6 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS LATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER STRAITS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. DRAW BRIDGES WILL FUNCTION NORMALLY TONIGHT...AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE TOMORROW WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THESE BRIDGES IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER ** WTNT45 KNHC 290303 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THROUGH 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS STILL INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS FROM THE FLIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WERE 46 KT ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY 37 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ERNESTO WILL BE HELD AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS INLAND...AND SINCE THAT TIME...CUBAN RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAMAGUAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE RADAR DATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF ERNESTO...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER CLEARS THE COASTS...BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...THE LIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE OFFING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.7N 77.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTCA45 TJSJ 290311 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT LUNES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CENTRO DE ERNESTO AUN SOBRE CUBA... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN FUERON EXTENDIDA HACIA EL NORTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA BONITA BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE...DESDE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD EN LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA NEW SMYRNA BEACH EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y PARA GREAT EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS Y CAMAGUEY. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.8 OESTE O SOBRE TERRITORIO CUBANO...COMO A 20 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE CAMAGUEY. ESTA POSICION ES TAMBIEN COMO A 325 MILLAS...520 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE CAYO HUESO FLORIDA Y COMO A 320 MILLAS...515 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA... EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA SOBRE EL AGUA TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DEL MIERCOLES...Y CERCA DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA EL MIERCOLES AL ANOCHECER. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DESPUES QUE ERNESTO SE MUEVA SOBRE EL ESTRECHO DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS...SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE CENTRAL DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MOERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...21.7 NORTE...77.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KKEY 290314 CCA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290630- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 1100 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DEPARTED AND THE MAIN TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT MIDNIGHT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM ON TUESDAY. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE UPPER KEYS ON THE BAYSIDE. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 51 PERCENT... AND 69 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 4 PERCENT...AND 6 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS LATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER STRAITS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. DRAW BRIDGES WILL FUNCTION NORMALLY TONIGHT...AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE TOMORROW WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THESE BRIDGES IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER ** WTUS82 KMLB 290324 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 291000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1123 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO WEAKENING OVER CUBA BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY...WHERE AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND OVER CUBA. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES FROM KEY LARGO AND ABOUT 500 MILES FROM CAPE CANAVERAL. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND PLANS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED IN THE WARNED COUNTIES OF MARTIN...OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. EVERY HOME OR BUSINESS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD HAVE A COMPREHENSIVE HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AND BE PREPARED TO BE SELF SUFFICIENT FOR 72 HOURS AFTER A STORM PASSES. ERNESTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CUBA BUT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...WINDS... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATE TUESDAY AND SPREAD SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUST TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE INTO MARTIN...ST LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH INTO EASTERN OSCEOLA... BREVARD...EASTERN ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF ERNESTO AND IN THE RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES UP THE FLORIDA COAST SURGE AND TIDE WATERS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 4 TO 5 FEET BRINGING A MODERATE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL... THE THREAT IS LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURGE AND TIDE WATERS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS BECOMING A CONCERN. ...INLAND FLOODING... AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS ON TUESDAY THE STORM'S RAIN SHIELD WILL EXPAND AND MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYLIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE EASTERN PART OF OSCEOLA AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY SPEAKING...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A MODERATE TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. THE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND LIKELY THE FIRST HAZARD TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. THEN...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE. AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES NORTH OVER FLORIDA...STRONG WINDS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS... POSSIBLY DAMAGING BOATS AND DOCKS. STRAIGHT ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6AM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DD ** WTPQ31 PGUM 290324 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST TUE AUG 29 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 173.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 525 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 645 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO 440 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK 810 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. A SLOW TURN TO A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...16.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 173.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST TUESDAY. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTUS82 KKEY 290326 AAA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290630- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...AMENDED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 1100 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DEPARTED AND THE MAIN TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT MIDNIGHT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM ON TUESDAY. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AS WELL AS AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT...WILL CONTINUE FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE UPPER KEYS ON THE BAYSIDE. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 51 PERCENT... AND 69 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 4 PERCENT...AND 6 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS LATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER STRAITS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. DRAW BRIDGES WILL FUNCTION NORMALLY TONIGHT...AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE TOMORROW WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THESE BRIDGES IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER ** WTUS82 KTBW 290341 *** HLSTBW FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-290630- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1141 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT. NO CHANGES OR ADDITIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND FOR ALL OF POLK AND HARDEE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...MAINLY IN SQUALLS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC. ...WINDS... BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ERNESTO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 27 ON WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AT THIS TIME AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 215 AM TUESDAY MORNING. $$ PRC/EJ/BSG ** WTJP31 RJTD 290300 *** WARNING 290300. WARNING VALID 300300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 925 HPA AT 16.2N 173.9E SOUTHEAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 17.4N 170.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 16.2N 173.9E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 17.4N 170.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 310000UTC 18.4N 167.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 010000UTC 20.3N 164.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT = ** WTNT35 KNHC 290356 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL OVER CUBA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND OVER CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES ...515 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT25 KNHC 290359 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006 CORRECTED TO ADD LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 77.8W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 77.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 037 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 174.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 174.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.5N 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.2N 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.2N 169.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.2N 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.3N 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.9N 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 26.5N 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 173.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. ** WTCA45 TJSJ 290418 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18...CORREGIDO NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT LUNES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 CORREGIDO PARA INCLUIR EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE EN EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ...CENTRO DE ERNESTO AUN SOBRE CUBA... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN FUERON EXTENDIDAS HACIA EL NORTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA BONITA BEACH. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE...DESDE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD EN LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA NEW SMYRNA BEACH EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. PERMANECEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y PARA GREAT EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS Y CAMAGUEY. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.8 OESTE O SOBRE TERRITORIO CUBANO...COMO A 20 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE CAMAGUEY. ESTA POSICION ES TAMBIEN COMO A 325 MILLAS...520 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE CAYO HUESO FLORIDA Y COMO A 320 MILLAS...515 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA... EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO ESTARA SOBRE EL AGUA TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DEL MARTES...Y CERCA DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA PARA EL MARTES AL ANOCHECER. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DESPUES QUE ERNESTO SE MUEVA SOBRE EL ESTRECHO DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS...SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE CENTRAL DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MIERCOLES. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES EN AREAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...21.7 NORTE...77.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KMFL 290436 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1235 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS/HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHWWEST FLORIDA COAST TO BONITA BEACH. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTH FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST TO BONITA BEACH AND CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST TO BONITA BEACH AND CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. HOWEVER, A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ON THIS MOTION ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BE NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 40 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WIND 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SAME TIME FRAME IN THIS CASE. DESPITE THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND CHANCE OF ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA, ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED NO LATER THAN TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND LATE TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A TRAILER OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TUESDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, EVACUATION ORDERS FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED HOMES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THE LATEST TRACK ALSO HAS MOSTLY OFFSHORE WIND FOR THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO, BUT ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER, IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS BEGINNING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE AREAS DESPITE THE LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS STARTING POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE EVENING. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH LATEST DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA AS A HURRICANE CONTINUES TO DECREASE, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE AND THEREFORE RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT LOWER THEIR GUARD. ALSO, STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO NEAR OR HURRICANE FORCE, WHICH CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH COULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 65 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 15 TO 25. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 5 PERCENT OR LESS. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM, EVEN A WEAK ONE, AS IT MAKES LANDFALL, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS, DEPRESSIONS, OR JUST TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ANY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST, OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY, COULD BRING STRONGER WIND AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ SANTOS ** WTUS82 KMFL 290459 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1235 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS/HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHWWEST FLORIDA COAST TO BONITA BEACH. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTH FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST TO BONITA BEACH AND CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST TO BONITA BEACH AND CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. HOWEVER, A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ON THIS MOTION ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BE NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 40 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WIND 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SAME TIME FRAME IN THIS CASE. DESPITE THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND CHANCE OF ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA, ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED NO LATER THAN TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND LATE TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A TRAILER OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TUESDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, EVACUATION ORDERS FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED HOMES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, UNDER THE LATEST TRACK THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE COLLIER TO FLORIDA BAY COASTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER, IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS BEGINNING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE AREAS DESPITE THE LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS STARTING POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE EVENING. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH LATEST DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA AS A HURRICANE CONTINUES TO DECREASE, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE AND THEREFORE RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT LOWER THEIR GUARD. ALSO, STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO NEAR OR HURRICANE FORCE, WHICH CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH COULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 65 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 15 TO 25. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 5 PERCENT OR LESS. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM, EVEN A WEAK ONE, AS IT MAKES LANDFALL, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS, DEPRESSIONS, OR JUST TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ANY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST, OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY, COULD BRING STRONGER WIND AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 AM EDT. $$ SANTOS ** WTNT80 EGRR 290514 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 77.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2006 21.9N 77.0W MODERATE 12UTC 29.08.2006 23.0N 79.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 24.1N 80.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 25.0N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 27.2N 80.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 29.9N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 33.2N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 35.8N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 97.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2006 14.8N 97.4W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2006 14.8N 98.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 14.8N 100.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2006 15.4N 101.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 16.3N 101.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 17.2N 102.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 17.7N 103.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2006 18.1N 104.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2006 18.8N 105.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2006 18.6N 106.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290514 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 290545 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1100 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO AND TECOMAN. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS OVER REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...13.9 N...97.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTNT35 KNHC 290556 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CANAGUA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES ...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WATER LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...22.2 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART