** WTUS82 KKEY 281805 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-282130- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 200 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ON THE MAINLAND FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-STRENGTHENING WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS, AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING, ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART AT 730 PM TONIGHT. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND ONLY FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...ARE POSSIBLE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 43 PERCENT... AND 55 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 6 PERCENT...AND 8 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER EASTERN STRAITS BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KKEY 281810 CCA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-282130- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 200 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ON THE MAINLAND FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-STRENGTHENING WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS, AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING, ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART AT 730 PM TONIGHT. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND ONLY FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...ARE POSSIBLE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 43 PERCENT... AND 55 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 6 PERCENT...AND 8 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER EASTERN STRAITS BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/FUTTERMAN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 16.2N 175.2E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 16.5N 171.4E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 18.0N 167.9E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 20.0N 164.8E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 281800 *** WARNING 281800. WARNING VALID 291800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.2N 175.2E SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.9N 171.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 18.2N 168.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 20.3N 165.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 281800UTC 16.2N 175.2E GOOD MOVE W 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 291800UTC 16.9N 171.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 301800UTC 18.2N 168.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 311800UTC 20.3N 165.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 281800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 281800UTC 16.2N 175.2E MOVEMENT W 6KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 291800UTC 16.9N 171.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 48HR POSITION 301800UTC 18.3N 168.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 72HR POSITION 311800UTC 20.1N 165.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 915HPA 109KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT35 KNHC 282035 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 60 MILES... 100 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF CUBA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT25 KNHC 282035 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.8N 80.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 76.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT85 KNHC 282036 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-290300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060828T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ657-290300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060828T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-290300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1005.060828T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ656-676-856-876-290300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1005.060828T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC009-011-061-085-086-087-099-111-127-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ033-657-290300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ610-290300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060828T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.060828T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...MLB... ** WTCU31 MUHA 282000 *** MUFH SIGMET 3 VALID 282000/290200 MUHA- HABANA FIR TC ERNESTO OBS N2066W7610 AT 1800Z FREQ TS CB TOP FL500 N2400W7800 N2200W7510 N2000W7318 N1830W7500 N1928W7735 AT N2400W7800 MOV NW 15KT INCR FCST VLD 290000Z AT N2150W7680= ** WTCU31 MUHA 282000 CNL *** MUFH SIGMET 3 VALID 282000/290200 MUHA- HABANA FIR TC ERNESTO OBS N2066W7610 AT 1800Z FREQ TS CB TOP FL500 N2400W7800 N2200W7510 N2000W7318 N1830W7500 N1928W7735 AT N2400W7800 MOV NW 15KT INCR FCST VLD 290000Z AT N2150W7680= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 282050 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TAFB PROVIDING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 OR 35 KT AND SAB GIVING 3.0 OR 45 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE TWO AT 40 KT AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 NMI IN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE. SCATTER IN THE POSITION ESTIMATES HAS DECREASED AS ALL AGENCIES ARE WITHIN 25 NMI OF EACH OTHER. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS CORROBORATED WITH A TRMM PASS AT 1456Z WITH WELL-PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BANDS. MOTION IS NOW MORE ACCURATELY ASSESSED AT 285/7...RATHER THAN THE NORTHWEST TRACK INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOHN SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JOHN'S MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AS BOTH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ACCURATELY ANALYZED JOHN. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUGGEST CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS ALL BRING THE SYSTEM UP TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWN HERE SUGGESTS JOHN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES THAT JOHN MAY REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SOONER THAN INDICATED. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY DAY FIVE DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...EXCEPT TO SHOW FASTER WEAKENING AT DAY FIVE. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF JOHN'S TRACK TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...INTERESTS FROM ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 13.4N 96.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.1N 99.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.2N 103.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 282050 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 96.7W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 96.7W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.1N 99.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.2N 103.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...135NE 100SE 75SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 96.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 282054 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 ...NAME OF JOHN ADDED ABOVE... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 96.7W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 96.7W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.1N 99.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.2N 103.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...135NE 100SE 75SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 96.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTNT45 KNHC 282059 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A CENTER. BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...THE CENTER IS JUST INLAND OF THE NORTH COAST. THE SYSTEM BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED... WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...SOME NEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WE EXPECT SOME RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID. IN FACT...THE SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE FORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ERNESTO TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WARNED AREAS IN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MOTION...310/11...IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE OTHERS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT OTHERWISE ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL PREDICTION. IN 3-5 DAYS THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 21.3N 76.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 78.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 24.3N 79.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 30/1800Z 27.8N 80.8W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1800Z 32.5N 80.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 02/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA45 TJSJ 282111 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT LUNES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CENTRO DE ERNESTO CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA...AMENAZA DE FUERTES LLUVIAS CONTINUA...SE EMITEN AVISOS DE TORMENTA PARA PORCIONES DE FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...SE EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA FLORIDA DESDE VERO BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA COSTA ESTE... DESDE EL SUR DE CHOKOLOSKEE HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA OESTE...PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. ESTAS AREAS TAMBIEN PERMANECEN BAJO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...SE EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE CHOKOLOSKEE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA ENGLEWOOD EN LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL NORTE DE VERO BEACH HASTA NEW SMYRNA BEACH EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA ANDROS...LAS ISLAS BERRY...LAS BIMINIS Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAS ISLAS TAMBIEN PERMANECEN BAJO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y PARA GREAT EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS Y CAMAGUEY. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.9 OESTE. ESTA POSICION ES JUSTO SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA...COMO A 60 MILLAS...100 KM...AL ESTE DE CAMAGUEY. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA... EL CENTRO DE ERNESTO SALDRA AL ATLANTICO AL NORTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ERNESTO COMIENZE A RE-INTENSIFICARSE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA NUEVAMENTE SOBRE EL AGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS...SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE SECTORES DEL ESTE Y SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL MOERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...21.3 NORTE...76.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTUS82 KKEY 282128 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290030- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 500 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION...INCLUDING A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDES SECTION ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF CUBA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART AT 715 PM TONIGHT AND THE MAIN TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT MIDNIGHT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM ON TUESDAY. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND JUST FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TOMORROW. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE UPPER KEYS ON THE BAYSIDE. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 46 PERCENT... AND 65 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 3 PERCENT...AND 5 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS LATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER EASTERN STRAITS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. DRAW BRIDGES WILL FUNCTION NORMALLY TONIGHT...AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE TOMORROW WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THESE BRIDGES IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER/FUTTERMAN ** WTJP31 RJTD 282100 *** WARNING 282100. WARNING VALID 292100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.0N 174.7E EAST OF WAKE MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 17.0N 171.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 282100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 282100UTC 16.0N 174.7E GOOD MOVE W 06KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 292100UTC 17.0N 171.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 301800UTC 18.2N 168.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 311800UTC 20.3N 165.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 282154 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST TUE AUG 29 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS TYPHOON. AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 174.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 670 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO 485 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK 870 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. A SLOW TURN TO A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...16.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 174.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST TUESDAY. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTUS82 KTBW 282200 *** HLSTBW FLZ056-057-061-062-065-290100- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 600 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS... CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. ERNESTO WAS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...WINDS... BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ERNESTO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 27 ON WEDNESDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AT THIS TIME AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1115 PM THIS EVENING. $$ PRC ** WTUS82 KMLB 282213 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 290400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 612 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD... ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY...WHERE AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND PLANS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED IN THE WARNED COUNTIES OF MARTIN...OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. BASED ON EXPERIENCES OF THE PAST TWO HURRICANE SEASONS...EVERY HOME OR BUSINESS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD HAVE A COMPREHENSIVE HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AND BE PREPARED TO BE SELF SUFFICIENT FOR 72 HOURS AFTER A STORM PASSES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...WINDS... ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATE TUESDAY AND SPREAD SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE INTO MARTIN...ST LUCIE... OKEECHOBEE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND OVERSPREAD EASTERN OSCEOLA...BREVARD...EASTERN ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THIS PREDICTED INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AS ERNESTO MOVES UP THE FLORIDA COAST SURGE AND TIDE WATERS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 4 TO 5 FEET BRINGING A MODERATE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL... THE THREAT IS LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURGE AND TIDE WATERS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS BECOMING A CONCERN. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS POINT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND INTENSITY. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE EASTERN PART OF OSCEOLA AND ORANGE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY SPEAKING...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A MODERATE TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. THE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND LIKELY THE FIRST HAZARD TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA. ...MARINE... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. THEN...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DD ** WTUS82 KMFL 282214 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-290415- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 613 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM CHOKOLOSKEE NORTH, INCLUDING THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY WHERE ONLY AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH, AND ON THIS MOTION ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WIND 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY, ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED BEFORE SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, OR NO LATER THAN TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND LATE TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A TRAILER OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TUESDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, EVACUATION ORDERS FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED HOMES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THE LATEST TRACK ALSO HAS MOSTLY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO, BUT ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER, IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE, WHICH CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 70 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 27 TO 35 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND 17 TO 25 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 8 PERCENT OVER METRO EAST COAST LOCATIONS AND 5 TO 7 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ...INLAND FLOODING... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FEET. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. OVER THE COLLIER COUNTY WATERS, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTPN31 PHNC 282200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JOHN) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 96.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 96.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.7N 97.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 14.1N 99.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.0N 101.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.2N 103.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 19.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 22.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 282200Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 97.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 15 FEET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 276 NM SE OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.// ** WTUS82 KTBW 282302 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-290100- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 600 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CORRECTED TO ADD POLK COUNTY TO UGC LINE ...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS... CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. ERNESTO WAS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES. AFTER THE STORM PASSES WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WHICH COULD INCREASE TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...WINDS... BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ERNESTO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 27 ON WEDNESDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...BEACH EROSION... ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS A DISORGANIZED STORM AT THIS TIME AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 815 PM THIS EVENING. $$ PRC ** WTNT35 KNHC 282348 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL INLAND OVER CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS...THE BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...19 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTUS82 KKEY 282354 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-290330- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 750 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION CONTINUES FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 800 PM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS HAS BEEN COMPLETED. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS...AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DEPARTED AND THE MAIN TERMINAL WILL CLOSE AT MIDNIGHT. THE LAST GREYHOUND BUS WILL DEPART FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TERMINAL AT 845 AM ON TUESDAY. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND JUST FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CITY OF KEY WEST AND MARATHON...AS WELL AS ALL MONROE COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED TOMORROW. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... STORM TIDE UP TO THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE UPPER KEYS ON THE BAYSIDE. HIGH TIDE AT ROCK HARBOR IN KEY LARGO WILL BE AT 116 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 117 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL UNDER THE HIGHWAY ONE BRIDGE WILL BE AT 110 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 111 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 46 PERCENT... AND 65 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 3 PERCENT...AND 5 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS LATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER EASTERN STRAITS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. DRAW BRIDGES WILL FUNCTION NORMALLY TONIGHT...AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE TOMORROW WHETHER TO LOCK DOWN THESE BRIDGES IF NECESSARY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER