** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KKEY 281213 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-281600 TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 815 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 800 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED PREPAREDNESS SECTION TO INCLUDE BEGINNING TIME FOR SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT ON THE MAINLAND FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER LAND TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS WILL BEGIN AT 1000 AM TODAY. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS, AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING, ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS HURRICANE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. KEY WEST AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THOSE SEEKING SHELTER ON THE MAINLAND SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE KEYS AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY FOLLOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 54 PERCENT...AND 62 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 9 PERCENT...AND AT MARATHON IT IS 13 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY...GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... WE WILL ISSUE OUR NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT AROUND NOON ...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTUS82 KKEY 281219 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-281600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 815 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 800 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. UPDATED PREPAREDNESS SECTION TO INCLUDE BEGINNING TIME FOR SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT ON THE MAINLAND FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER LAND TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS WILL BEGIN AT 1000 AM TODAY. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS, AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING, ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS HURRICANE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. KEY WEST AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THOSE SEEKING SHELTER ON THE MAINLAND SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE KEYS AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY FOLLOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 54 PERCENT...AND 62 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 9 PERCENT...AND AT MARATHON IT IS 13 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY...GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... WE WILL ISSUE OUR NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT AROUND NOON ...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 281200 UTC 00HR 16.2N 175.9E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 16.3N 172.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 17.6N 168.8E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 19.6N 165.9E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 281200 *** WARNING 281200. WARNING VALID 291200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.1N 175.9E SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 16.5N 172.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.5N 169.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 19.2N 166.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 281200UTC 16.1N 175.9E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 291200UTC 16.5N 172.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 301200UTC 17.5N 169.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 311200UTC 19.2N 166.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTUS97 KJAX 281304 *** HLSJAX FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-281400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 902 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...NEW INFORMATION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...ALACHUA...BAKER... BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST... HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE AND UNION. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...APPLING...ATKINSON... BACON...BRANTLEY...CAMDEN...CHARLTON...CLINCH...COFFEE...ECHOLS... GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...PIERCE...WARE AND WAYNE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... ...STORM INFORMATION... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE... ...WINDS... ...INLAND FLOODING... ...TORNADOES... ...MARINE... ...NEXT UPDATE... $$ LETRO ** WTPN31 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 175.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 175.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.2N 174.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.7N 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.3N 170.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.2N 168.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.6N 164.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.2N 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.3N 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 175.4E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 281432 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT25 KNHC 281433 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 76.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 78.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 75.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT85 KNHC 281433 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC009-061-085-099-111-127-282100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060828T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ AMZ550-555-570-575-650-670-282100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060828T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W NEW-SMYRNA-BEACH-FL 29.03N 80.89W $$ FLC011-086-087-282100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ AMZ630-651-671-GMZ033-657-282100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ AMZ610-282100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060828T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-282100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...MLB... ** WTNT45 KNHC 281453 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA CAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC. THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. SINCE THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/9. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO MAY BE IMPARTING SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOTION. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN OF ERNESTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 75.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.5N 76.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.9N 78.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W 70 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 34.0N 77.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 75.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 281454 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 97.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 99.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 95.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 281501 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEEN 2.5 OR 35 KT AT BOTH 06 AND 12Z AND BANDING IN THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SINCE 12Z. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AT 305/8...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE THE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY STRONG FROM 36 TO 96 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST AT THOSE TIMES. AT DAY 5...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HOURS. DUE TO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER DAY 3...THE WATER TEMPERATURES DROP AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE... SUGGESTING WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5. INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 13.2N 95.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.6N 97.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 14.1N 99.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTCU31 MUHA 281430 *** MUFH SIGMET 2 VALID 281400/282000 MUHA- HABANA FIR TC ERNESTO OBS N2030W7560 AT 1500Z FREQ TS CB TOP FL500 N2400W7800 N2200W7510 N2000W7318 N1830W7500 N1928W7735 AT N2400W7800 MOV NW 15KT INCR FCST VLD 290000Z AT N2033W7566= ** WTCU31 MUHA 281430 CNL *** MUFH SIGMET 2 VALID 281400/282000 MUHA- HABANA FIR TC ERNESTO OBS N2030W7560 AT 1500Z FREQ TS CB TOP FL500 N2400W7800 N2200W7510 N2000W7318 N1830W7500 N1928W7735 AT N2400W7800 MOV NW 15KT INCR FCST VLD 290000Z AT N2033W7566= ** WTJP31 RJTD 281500 *** WARNING 281500. WARNING VALID 291500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.1N 175.4E SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 16.8N 171.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 281500UTC 16.1N 175.4E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 291500UTC 16.8N 171.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 301200UTC 17.5N 169.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 311200UTC 19.2N 166.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 281603 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT LUNES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA...LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIAS FUERTES E INDUNDACIONES CONTINUA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EXTENDIDA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA A NEW SMYRNA BEACH Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA EL LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ADEMAS...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS BIMINI Y LA ISLA GRAND BAHAMA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DE SMYRNA BEACH HACIA AL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL SUR DE CHOKOLOSKEE HACIA EL SUR A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE...PARA EL LAKE OKEECHOBEE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA ANDROS EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PUEDEN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA CAMBIADO EL AVISO DE HURACAN A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y GRAN EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.7 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS... 55 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...ERNESTO CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE SE DEBILITE MAS A MEDIDA QUE ERNESTO ENTRE A TIERRA HOY...PERO SE EPERA UNA RE-INTENSIFICACION CUANDO EL CENTRO SE MUEVA SOBRA LAS AGUAS AL NORTE DE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...Y PARTES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...20.3 NORTE...75.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTUS82 KKEY 281606 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-281900- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1200 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE 1100 AM EDT ADVISORY INFORMATION. INTRODUCED RAINFALL THREAT SECTION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ON THE MAINLAND FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB...OR 29.71 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS NOW ACTIVATED. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS, AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING, ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. THE LAST FLIGHT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART AT 730 PM TONIGHT. CAR RENTAL AVAILABILITY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND ONLY FROM 600 AM TO 1000 AM ON TUESDAY MORNING. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...ARE POSSIBLE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 43 PERCENT... AND 55 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 6 PERCENT...AND 8 PERCENT AT MARATHON. ...MARINE... EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE OUTER EASTERN STRAITS BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300 PM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/FUTTERMAN ** WTPQ31 PGUM 281615 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST TUE AUG 29 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE TURNING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 175.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND 690 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO 520 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK 915 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...16.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 175.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTUS82 KMFL 281623 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-282230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1223 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO INCLUDE THE PALM BEACH COUNTY WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF PALM BEACH, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BROWARD, MIAMI- DADE, MAINLAND MONROE, GLADES, HENDRY AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...HOWEVER RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER OF THE STORM EMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY, TIMING, AND EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION IF THE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS TONIGHT. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, BASED ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THE LATEST TRACK ALSO HAS MOSTLY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO, BUT ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET TO THESE AREAS. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 16 TO 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER, IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WIND MAY START AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE EIGHTEEN MILE STRETCH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 1 AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO METRO MIAMI-DADE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY, THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND CAN STILL CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND BLOW DOWN SMALL TREES AND BREAK OFF LIMBS WHICH CAN CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 60 TO 65 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TO 50 TO 55 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS 7 TO 12 PERCENT OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...INLAND FLOODING... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO DOES NOT STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FEET. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS, GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM. $$ MOLLEDA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 281645 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR AWIPS BIN NUMBER IN FIRST LINE ABOVE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 95.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 97.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 99.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 95.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 281646 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR AWIPS BIN NUMBER IN FIRST LINE ABOVE... SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEEN 2.5 OR 35 KT AT BOTH 06 AND 12Z AND BANDING IN THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SINCE 12Z. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AT 305/8...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE THE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY STRONG FROM 36 TO 96 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST AT THOSE TIMES. AT DAY 5...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HOURS. DUE TO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER DAY 3...THE WATER TEMPERATURES DROP AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE... SUGGESTING WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5. INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 13.2N 95.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.6N 97.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 14.1N 99.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTUS82 KMLB 281722 *** HLSMLB AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 282200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 115 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...NEW INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... OSCEOLA...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...AND LAKE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD...THIS AFFECTS VOLUSIA... BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES. ALSO...AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY WHERE AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. BASED ON EXPERIENCES OF THE PAST TWO HURRICANE SEASONS...EVERY HOME OR BUSINESS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD HAVE A COMPREHENSIVE HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AND BE PREPARED TO BE SELF SUFFICIENT FOR 72 HOURS AFTER A STORM PASSES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PLANS AND CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY. ...WINDS... ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME FURTHER WEAKENING TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER LAND...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IT MOVES NORTH OF CUBA OUT OVER THE WATER ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AT 55 TO 75 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF SIMILAR INTENSITY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST...BUT INLAND COUNTIES ARE STILL AT RISK GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND WITH AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... THE WIND FORECAST RESULTS IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF ERNESTO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCREASING IN MARTIN COUNTY FIRST...THEN CONTINUING NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE CANAVERAL. AS A RESULT...SURGE AND TIDE WATERS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 4 TO 5 FEET BRINGING A MODERATE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TO THAT AREA. NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...THE THREAT IS LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURGE AND TIDE WATERS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS BECOMING A CONCERN. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 16 TO 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. ...INLAND FLOODING... AT THIS POINT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO ACCORDING TO THE POTENTIAL TRAJECTORY OF ITS RAINBANDS AND PRECIPITATION CORE. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT CLOSER TO THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADOES... HISTORICALLY SPEAKING...THE SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO PROMPTS A MODERATE TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS THAT ROTATE ONSHORE. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. THE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND LIKELY THE FIRST HAZARD TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA. ...MARINE... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NORTH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM JUPITER INLET TO COCOA BEACH...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY NORTH OF COCOA. THEN... HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 PM OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ DWS ** WTNT35 KNHC 281734 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOLGUIN CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RE-STRENGTHENING WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.7 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT80 EGRR 281736 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 75.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2006 19.7N 75.4W MODERATE 00UTC 29.08.2006 21.6N 77.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2006 23.1N 79.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2006 24.0N 80.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 25.5N 82.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2006 27.5N 81.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2006 29.7N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2006 31.8N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 33.5N 78.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.9N 96.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2006 12.9N 96.6W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2006 13.2N 98.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2006 14.1N 99.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2006 14.3N 100.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2006 14.7N 101.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2006 14.7N 101.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2006 15.2N 101.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2006 15.1N 102.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2006 15.3N 102.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2006 14.8N 102.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2006 14.4N 103.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2006 14.6N 106.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281736 ** WTCA45 TJSJ 281756 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 PM EDT LUNES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA...LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIAS FUERTES E INDUNDACIONES CONTINUA... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DE SMYRNA BEACH HACIA AL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL SUR DE CHOKOLOSKEE HACIA EL SUR A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE...PARA EL LAKE OKEECHOBEE...Y PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA ANDROS EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PUEDEN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y GRAN EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.1 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS... 25 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE HOLGUIN CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...ERNESTO CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL ESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ERNESTO COMIENZE A RE-INTENSIFICARSE CUANDO EL CENTRO SE MUEVA SOBRA LAS AGUAS AL NORTE DE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...Y PARTES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...20.7 NORTE...76.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH