** WTNT35 KNHC 280559 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE EAST THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTIN20 DEMS 280600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH WEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH EAST AND EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTIN20 DEMS 280600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-08-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH WEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH EAST AND EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTNT85 KNHC 280624 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC087-280900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...KEY... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 280638 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 200 AM EDT LUNES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO ENTRE HAITI Y CUBA... ...LLUVIAS FUERTES...INUNDACIONES...Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CONTINUAN SIENDO UN RIESGO SIGNIFICATIVO PARA GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA...Y PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y GRAN EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA ANDROS EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. SE RECOMIENDA UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LITTLE CAYMAN Y CAYMAN BRAC. PUEDEN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.0 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...14 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...ERNESTO ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE ERNESTO VUELVA A GANAR INTENSIDAD A MEDIDA QUE SE ALEJA DE LOS TERRENOS MONTANOSOS DE HAITI...Y PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA AL SURESTE DE CUBA. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ACTUALMENTE SE ENCUENTRA INVESTIGANDO A ERNESTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES MAREAS DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y LA PENINSULA DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI. SE ESPERAN MAREAS DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...JUNTO CON OLAS GRANDES EN LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...Y PARTES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS... A TRAVES DE PARTES DE JAMAICA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...19.0 NORTE...75.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY IOKE 0612 (0612) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 16.4N 176.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.1N 173.1E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 16.7N 170.3E 910HPA 65M/S P+72HR 18.6N 167.0E 910HPA 65M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 280600UTC 16.3N 176.7E GOOD MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290600UTC 16.4N 173.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 48HF 300600UTC 17.1N 170.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 72HF 310600UTC 19.0N 167.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 280600 *** WARNING 280600. WARNING VALID 290600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.3N 176.7E SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.4N 173.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.1N 170.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 19.0N 167.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KKEY 280657 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-280930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 9 PM TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. AT 200 AM...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO, CUBA...AND HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST...ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT 600 AM MONDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL-NEEDS RESIDENTS IS TO BEGIN AT 600 AM MONDAY. AT 1000 AM THE EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. THE 18-MILE STRETCH IS CLOSED TONIGHT FOR PREPARATION...AND WILL OPEN AT 600 AM MONDAY. MEANWHILE TRAFFIC IS DIRECTED TO CARD SOUND ROAD...WHERE TOLLS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE SHELTER AT F-I-U WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY. JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. KEY WEST AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. ...WINDS... WINDS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE KEYS MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY FOLLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST AT 58 PERCENT...AND 61 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 12 PERCENT...AND AT MARATHON IT IS 13 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY...GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... WE WILL ISSUE OUR NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT AROUND 530 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB ** WTKO20 RKSL 280600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TY 0612 IOKE ANALYSIS POSITION 280600UTC 16.3N 176.7E MOVEMENT WSW 9KT PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 290600UTC 16.5N 173.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 48HR POSITION 300600UTC 17.7N 169.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 105KT 72HR POSITION 310600UTC 19.4N 166.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 915HPA 109KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TY 0612 IOKE (0612) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 176.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 176.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.1N 174.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.4N 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.9N 171.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.7N 169.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 19.7N 166.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 22.4N 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 25.6N 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 176.2E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 280838 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 AT 5 AM...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THIS WATCH BE DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 75.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 75.4W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N 76.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.2N 78.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.7N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.5N 80.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.6N 81.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 32.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 75.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT35 KNHC 280845 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA... AT 5 AM...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THIS WATCH BE DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST CUBA LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE WHILE OVER CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...75.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT85 KNHC 280845 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC011-086-281500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060828T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ AMZ630-651-671-GMZ657-281500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.060828T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC087-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... ** WTNT45 KNHC 280901 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTING THE CYCLONE HAS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 35 KT. THEREFORE...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 48 KT SO FAR...BUT AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVER PASS INDICATED HI-RESOLUTION WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS JUST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.6N 75.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 76.3W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 29/0600Z 22.2N 78.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 23.7N 80.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 25.5N 80.6W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 31/0600Z 29.6N 81.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 32.5N 79.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 36.5N 74.5W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA45 TJSJ 280931 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM EDT LUNES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ERNESTO CONTINUA TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA AL SURESTE DE CUBA... ...LLUVIAS FUERTES...INUNDACIONES...Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CONTINUAN SIENDO UN RIESGO SIGNIFICATIVO PARA GRAN PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA Y EL ESTE DE CUBA... A LAS 5 AM...0900 UTC...SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE...Y DESDE EL SUR DE CHOKOLOSKEE HACIA EL SUR A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA ANDROS EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE HAITI. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...Y CAMAGUEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA RAGGED Y GRAN EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 5 AM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA HA DESCONTINUADO TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA JAMAICA. PUEDEN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA MAS TARDE HOY. SE RECOMIENDA QUE EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA SEA DESCONTINUADA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LITTLE CAYMAN Y CAYMAN BRAC. SE RECOMIENDA QUE ESTA VIGILANCIA SEA DESCONTINUADA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ERNESTO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ERNESTO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.4 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS... 70 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. ERNESTO SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...ERNESTO ENTRARA A TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA...Y POSIBLEMENTE SALGA POR LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE HASTA QUE ERNESTO ENTRE A TIERRA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA...CON ALGUN POSIBLE DEBILITAMIENTO MIENTRAS SE ENCUENTRE SOBRE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES MAREAS DE HASTA 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN JAMAICA Y LA PENINSULA DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI. SE ESPERAN MAREAS DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...JUNTO CON OLAS GRANDES EN LA COSTA SUR DEL ESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 12 PULGADAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 20 PULGADAS...SOBRE HAITI...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...Y PARTES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...19.6 NORTE...75.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 280900UTC 16.2N 176.4E GOOD MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290900UTC 16.5N 173.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 45HF 300600UTC 17.1N 170.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT 69HF 310600UTC 19.0N 167.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 105KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 280900 *** WARNING 280900. WARNING VALID 290900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0612 IOKE (0612) 920 HPA AT 16.2N 176.4E SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAYS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 16.5N 173.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS82 KKEY 280947 *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-281230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. AT 500 AM...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO, CUBA...AND HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SHELTER LOCATIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT ON THE MAINLAND FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY EMERGED OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON CUBA...WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE WHILE OVER CUBA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AS OF 600 AM TODAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL-NEEDS PATIENTS IS TO BEGIN TO THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY AT 600 AM TODAY. THE SHELTER AT F-I-U WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM. JUST FOLLOW THE SIGNS. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS, AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING, ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS. KEYS HURRICANE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. KEY WEST AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THOSE SEEKING SHELTER ON THE MAINLAND SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE KEYS AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY FOLLOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 54 PERCENT...AND 62 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 9 PERCENT...AND AT MARATHON IT IS 13 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY...GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... WE WILL ISSUE OUR NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT AROUND 830 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTPQ31 PGUM 280952 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN SUPER TYPHOON IOKE (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON AUG 28 2006 ...SUPER TYPHOON IOKE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST..0900Z..THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 176.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 665 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE 720 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO 565 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK AND 970 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ENEWETAK. SUPER TYPHOON IOKE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 176.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY. $$ AHN ** WTUS82 KMFL 281002 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-281600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 602 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE, MAINLAND MONROE, AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MORE OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MOVES ONSHORE SOUTHEAST CUBA...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER UNTIL IT REEMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATER LATE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY, TIMING, AND EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION IF THE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS TONIGHT. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, BASED ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO. A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG MIAMI BEACH AND THE BROWARD COUNTY COASTLINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS ABOUT 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 16 TO 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES COUNTY SHORELINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE EIGHTEEN MILE STRETCH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 1 AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO METRO MIAMI-DADE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY SPREADING NORTH THROUGH METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THERE IS A 60 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, WINDS IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO DOES NOT STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 15 FEET. OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KKEY 281126 AAA *** HLSKEY FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-281230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 720 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE SHELTER LOCATED AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS FOR SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS ONLY...AND IS NOT OPEN TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC. THE PREPAREDNESS SECTION HAS BEEN CHANGED TO REFLECT THIS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT ON THE MAINLAND FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY EMERGED OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON CUBA...WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE WHILE OVER CUBA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AS OF 600 AM TODAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS. TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS IMMEDIATELY. THE EVACUATION OF SPECIAL-NEEDS PERSONS WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY. MOBILE HOME AND BOAT DWELLERS, AS WELL AS RESIDENTS RESIDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING, ARE ENCOURAGED TO UTILIZE HURRICANE SHELTERS WITHIN THE FLORIDA KEYS. KEYS HURRICANE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM. KEYS SHELTERS INCLUDE KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL AT 2100 FLAGLER AVENUE...SUGARLOAF ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 19...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 3400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 89 ON PLANTATION KEY. KEY WEST AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE OPERATIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THOSE SEEKING SHELTER ON THE MAINLAND SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA. ...WINDS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE KEYS AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY FOLLOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN KEY WEST IS 54 PERCENT...AND 62 PERCENT AT MARATHON. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT KEY WEST IS 9 PERCENT...AND AT MARATHON IT IS 13 PERCENT. ...MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY...GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... WE WILL ISSUE OUR NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT AROUND 830 AM...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DEVANAS/BROCK ** WTUS82 KMFL 281133 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-281600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED CODING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 732 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...HEADLINE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER... GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE, MAINLAND MONROE, AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MORE OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS NEAR 50 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MOVES ONSHORE SOUTHEAST CUBA, WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER UNTIL IT REEMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATER LATE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY, TIMING, AND EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION IF THE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS TONIGHT. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, BASED ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AS WELL AS THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO. A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG MIAMI BEACH AND THE BROWARD COUNTY COASTLINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS ABOUT 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 16 TO 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES COUNTY SHORELINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE. ...WINDS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER, IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WIND MAY START AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE EIGHTEEN MILE STRETCH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 1 AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO METRO MIAMI-DADE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY SPREADING NORTH THROUGH METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE STORM, THERE IS A 60 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO DOES NOT STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 15 FEET. OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON. $$ PFOST ** WTNT35 KNHC 281152 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA......HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ARE DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...WEST OF GUANTANAMO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. STORM TIDES AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N...75.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT85 KNHC 281155 *** TCVAT5 ERNESTO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 .TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FLC011-086-087-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ AMZ630-651-671-GMZ033-657-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-281500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...